Like many of you, I have been very frustrated with the MSM’s tendency to mix superdelegates in with pledged delegates when discussing the Democratic race. I searched around through the various sites and diaries and tried to pull together a list of pledged delegates by state along with some projections about the next few primaries and caucuses.
Here is a summary of the races so far. The first set summarizes the caucus results, the second set summarizes the primaries. I have also included a summary of the popular vote count when possible. Let me know if any of these figures are way off.
I worked hard on this table and will plan to update it as time goes on. If any of my delegate or vote counts are way off, please let me know so I can make updates. Also - this is my first diary, so please be gentle...
State Caucus |
Clinton results |
Clinton Pledged delegates |
Obama results |
Obama Pledged delegates |
Uncommitted |
Alaska (13) |
302 state delegates |
4 delegates |
103 state delegates |
9 delegates |
|
American Samoa (3) |
|
2 delegates |
|
1 delegate |
|
Colorado (55) |
38,587 state delegates |
9 delegates |
79,344 state delegates |
19 delegates |
27 delegates (9 C, 18 O) |
Idaho(18) |
3,655 state delegates |
3 delegates |
16,880 state delegates |
15 delegates |
|
Iowa (45) |
737 state delegates |
15 delegates |
940 state delegates |
16 delegates |
14 delegates (7 C, 7 O) |
Kansas (32) |
9,462 state delegates |
9 delegates |
27,172 state delegates |
23 delegates |
|
Maine (24) |
1396 state delegates |
9 delegates |
2,079 state delegates |
15 delegates |
|
Nebraska (24) |
12,396 state delegates |
8 delegates |
25,986 state delegates |
16 delegates |
|
Nevada (25) |
5,355 state delegates |
12 delegates |
4,773 state delegates |
13 delegates |
|
North Dakota (13) |
6,948 state delegates |
5 delegates |
11,625 state delegates |
8 delegates |
|
Virgin Islands (3) |
|
0 delegates |
|
3 delegates |
|
Washington (78) |
9,992 state delegates |
15 delegates |
21,629 state delegates |
35 delegates |
28 delegates (9 C, 18, O) |
Caucus totals: |
|
91 delegates |
|
173 delegates |
69 undecided ( 25 C, 43 O) |
State Primary |
Clinton results |
Clinton Pledged delegates |
Obama results |
Obama Pledged delegates |
Uncommitted |
Alabama (52) |
302,684 |
26 delegates |
226,454 |
25 delegates |
1 delegate (1 C, 0 O) |
Arizona (56) |
204,930 |
31 delegates |
171,368 |
25 delegates |
|
Arkansas (35) |
209,968 |
27 delegates |
79,411 |
8 delegates |
|
California (370) |
2,144,251 |
204 delegates |
1,746,013 |
161 delegates |
5 delegates (3 C, 2 O) |
Connecticut (48) |
164,831 |
22 delegates |
179,349 |
26 delegates |
|
Delaware (15) |
40,751 |
6 delegates |
51,124 |
9 delegates |
|
District of Columbia (15) |
27,326 |
2 delegates |
85,534 |
9 delegates |
4 delegates (1 C, 3 O) |
Georgia (87) |
328,129 |
26 delegates |
700,366 |
59 delegates |
2 delegates (0 C, 2 O) |
Illinois (153) |
662,845 |
49 delegates |
1,301,954 |
104 delegates |
|
Louisiana (56) |
136,959 |
22 delegates |
220,588 |
33 delegates |
1 delegate (0 C, 1 O) |
Maryland (70) |
273,828 |
5 delegates |
439,979 |
11 delegates |
54 delegates (18 C, 36 O) |
Massachusetts (93) |
704,591 |
55 delegates |
511,887 |
38 delegates |
|
Minnesota (72) |
68,442 |
24 delegates |
141,527 |
48 delegates |
|
Missouri (72) |
395,287 |
36 delegates |
405,284 |
36 delegates |
|
New Hampshire (22) |
112,251 |
9 delegates |
104,772 |
9 delegates |
4 delegates (2 C, 2 O) |
New Jersey (107) |
602,576 |
59 delegates |
492,186 |
48 delegates |
|
New Mexico (26) |
68,654 |
14 delegates |
67,531 |
12 delegates |
|
New York (232) |
1,003,623 |
139 delegates |
697,914 |
93 delegates |
|
Oklahoma (38) |
228,425 |
24 delegates |
130,087 |
14 delegates |
|
South Carolina (45) |
141,128 |
12 delegates |
295,091 |
25 delegates |
8 delegates (3 C, 5 O) |
Tennessee (68) |
332,599 |
40 delegates |
250,730 |
28 delegates |
|
Utah (23) |
48,719 |
9 delegates |
70,373 |
14 delegates |
|
Virginia (83) |
345,018 |
26 delegates |
619,036 |
50 delegates |
7 delegates (2 C, 5, O) |
Primary totals: |
8,547,815 votes |
867 |
8,988,558 votes |
885 |
86 (likely split: 30 C, 56 O) |
TOTAL PLEDGED DELEGATES |
CNN: 956 MSNBC: 969 WIKI: 965
|
CLINTON 958 pledged delegates + 55 likely |
CNN: 1059 MSNBC: 1078 WIKI: 1101 |
OBAMA 1058 pledged delegates + 99 likely |
|
NEEDED TO WIN (2025): |
|
high: 1067 low: 1012 |
|
high: 967 low: 868 |
|
If my numbers are close, then Obama is almost certainly ahead by at least 100 pledged delegates. It is likely that Obama is actually ahead by up to 134-144 pledged delegates (which will be finalized after everything is resolved at state conventions). Please share other opinions about this - I am trying to understand the differences in how this works from state to state.
With his current lead in mind, here is the list of the remaining primaries and caucuses:
2/19 - Hawaii Caucus 20 delegates
2/19 - Wisconsin Primary 74 delegates
3/4 - Ohio Primary 141 delegates
3/4 - Rhode Island Primary 21 delegates
3/4 - Texas Primary 193 delegates
3/4 - Vermont Primary 15 delegates
3/8 - Wyoming Caucus 12 delegates
3/11 - Mississippi Primary 33 delegates
4/22 - Pennsylvania Primary 158 delegates
5/3 - Guam Other 4 delegates
5/6 - Indiana Primary 72 delegates
5/6 - North Carolina Primary 115 delegates
5/13 - West Virginia Primary 28 delegates
5/20 - Kentucky Primary 51 delegates
5/20 - Oregon Primary 52 delegates
6/3 - Montana Primary 16 delegates
6/3 - South Dakota Primary 15 delegates
6/7 - Puerto Rico Caucus 55 delegates
Democrats Abroad Primary 11 delegates
TOTAL REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES 1075 delegates
Before I move into predictions, I want to acknowledge my preference for Senator Obama. I respect Senator Clinton, but I am genuinely excited and enthousiastic about Obama's candidacy.
With that in mind, looking ahead, I see several possible scenarios:
50 / 50 race to the finish
If Obama and Clinton stay neck and neck for ALL of the remaining contests, then he would gain about 537 more pledged delegates. In this scenario, he would need the support of 331 superdelegates to secure the nomination. He appears to already have the support of somewhere between 141-163 superdelegates as of 2/14/8. If 190 more superdelegates swing his way, then the game is essentially over.
Lose Ohio & Texas – still gain ground in March
It seems quite possible that Obama could win big in Hawaii & Wisconsin, lose Ohio, Texas by less than 10%, tie in Rhode Island, and win comfortably in Vermont Wyoming and Mississippi (does anyone have updated polling data?)
Date |
State |
Clinton |
Obama |
Prediction |
Lead in delegates |
Feb 19 |
Hawaii (20) |
7 delegates |
13 delegates |
30% win for Obama |
Obama +150 |
Feb 19 |
Wisconsin (72) |
29 delegates |
43 delegates |
20% win for Obama |
Obama +164 |
Mar 4 |
Ohio (141) |
77 delegates |
63 delegates |
10% loss for Obama |
Obama +150 |
Mar 4 |
Rhode Island (21) |
10 delegates |
11 delegates |
tie |
Obama +151 |
Mar 4 |
Texas (193) |
98 delegates |
95 delegates |
10% loss for Obama |
Obama +148 |
Mar 4 |
Vermont (193) |
7 delegates |
8 delegates |
10% win for Obama |
Obama +149 |
Mar 8 |
Wyoming (12) |
3 delegates |
9 delegates |
30% win for Obama |
Obama +155 |
Mar 11 |
Mississippi (33) |
11 delegates |
22 delegates |
20% win for Obama |
Obama +166 |
In this scenario (which may be way too optimistic), by March 11, Obama has still gained ground despite losing Ohio and Texas (the Texas delegate system favors Obama) and would by approximately 166 delegates. If Obama increases his lead to over 200 pledged delegates, then Clinton could only win with overwhelming support by the superdelegates or a Florida/Michigan spoiler (either of which would cause chaos and long-lasting anger in the party).
The Worst Spring Break Ever
The time between Mississippi’s primary and Pennsylvania’s primary will seem like an eternity. Clinton is not going to give up; it is just not in her nature (even if she is behind by 180 pledged delegates). She will not quit. Don’t fool yourself. SHE WILL NOT QUIT. She will stick around through the Pennsylvania contest, and she will use the long gap in the schedule to lock down her superdelegates. Does anyone have thoughts about what we should expect to see during these five weeks?
Florida & Michigan
If Michigan and Florida come back into play, then the race becomes instantly much more problematic. Clinton could gain up to 178 pledged delegates, while Obama would gain AT LEAST 67 (this number is absurdly low and should be much higher).
Excluding Florida and Michigan, there are 3253 pledged delegates + 795 (due to the death of Tom Lantos) for a grand total of 4048. To gain the nomination, candidates now need 2025 delegates to win the nomination. If Florida and Michigan are added back in to the mix, then a candidate will need 2183 votes to win a majority.
In this scenario, Obama needs 1116 more delegates to secure the nomination. Obama could not afford to stay neck and neck with Clinton for the remaining contests because he would then need up to 479 superdelegates (which is unlikely at this stage). Instead, Obama would need to increase his lead by almost another 100 pledged delegates and hopefully be granted a fair proportion of Florida & Michigan (or have new caucuses in those states).
Thanks for reading – let me know your thoughts...