Are Hilary's internal polls telling her something we do not know?
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Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has scaled back her Wisconsin campaign schedule by a full day, and is now planning to leave the state after Monday morning instead of Tuesday morning.
The move suggests the campaign does not think it can overtake rival Barack Obama here. Obama has already campaigned in the state Tuesday night, Wednesday, Friday, and today. He also has single events planned for Sunday (Kaukauna) and Monday (Beloit).
If this is really true, it makes no sense to me. More on the jump
Here is her original schedule:
Sunday: Milwaukee, Green Bay, Madison.
Monday: Eau Claire, Wausau, Oshkosh, Milwaukee.
Tuesday morning: Racine.
source
I don't know what her new schedule is.
Recent polls have the race as fairly tight, so it makes no sense for Hillary to not campaign until the very last moment here. I've been following this race with interest because the state has some very interesting characteristics.
- It is almost as much a swing state as Ohio. In 2004 Kerry barely, barely eked out a win here.
- The rural demographics are very similar to Ohio.
- Outside of the Milwaukee area there is not a significant number of African Americans here.
- It is not a caucus, so we might get an indication of how much that actually matters
I'm thinking that Wisconsin will finally answer some questions about Obama's recent wins.
Maryland and Virginia were primaries, but they both had significant numbers of African Americans voting. Excluding their vote, the result would have been a lot closer. Maine and Washington were interesting results, but they were caucuses which by design encourages only the more politically active to turn out. Wisconsin is a counter to all of these objections.
Even if she is losing in Wisconsin, I can think of no reasonable explanation for leaving early. And it feeds a very bad story arc for her. Already the press is picking on this story:
While she worked Texas, Mr. Obama had Wisconsin to himself for four days, starting with a huge rally Tuesday night in Madison to celebrate that night's landslides in Maryland and Virginia.
And Mrs. Clinton decided Saturday to leave on Monday, a day earlier than previously announced.
"I care deeply about what happens here in this election," she insisted in Kenosha, blaming the change on the need to juggle commitments.
The rival camp scoffs, evoking the failed Giuliani-in-Florida ploy.
"The thing about Sen. Obama, he's willing to fight in every state. It's not like, 'I'm only going to Texas and wait there,' " said Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, an Obama supporter. "I don't know what's must-win and what isn't. But when she talks about where her natural constituents are – this is a state that fits into that."
The Clinton side sought to tamp down expectations, even as it promoted the idea that she's still in great shape.
As a political junky I'm trying to make sense of her Wisconsin strategy. It just doesn't make sense to me. A loss here is going to be a lot harder for Clinton to spin away.