full disclosure: I'm an Obaman ~
No matter what you think of the primary and causes system, or how certain states apportion delegates [and I can’t help but think that Hillary supporters would not be so vocal if their candidate weren’t so far behind, but that’s another diary], I think we can all agree that superdelegates have no place in a "democratic" party.
Though it could be argued that they exist as a check on the passions of the people, this is NOT the republican party nor is it the government. Within our party, these people may claim to represent the best interests of the party, but the best interests of the party have already been decided via state primaries and caucuses. This is OUR party. Superdelegates exist merely to make sure our voices aren’t so loud, and that is antithetical to a democratic party.
Which brings me to the point of this diary: 1627 is the magic number for nomination.
Most of you know there are 4049 delegates that are awarded under current Democratic party rules: 796 supers + 3253 pledged. So, simply removing the ridiculous check on the people, we are left with just the 3253 pledged delegates, of which 1627 is the number needed to secure nomination.
This is the number both candidates should be aiming for; not locking up party insiders, but securing the votes of the people.
So, how does this shape up for the future?
Currently, the tally stands at O 1137, C 1002 as per Open Left from 02/15, meaning Obama needs 490 to secure the nomination, Clinton, 625.
Taking data from Obama’s campaign sheet on the rest of the contests (which has been consistently conservative and has 1075 delegates remaining), it has Obama getting 538 and Clinton 537, a virtual tie in the remaining 16 contests. It also means that Clinton will NEVER reach the magic number of 1627, and that Obama will get there after Oregon.
In conclusion: yes, this diary and a quarter will get you a shave and a haircut, but I also think that whichever candidate hits this number SHOULD be the nominee, be it Hillary or Barack. And for future races, this should be the only number that matters, superdelegates having been entirely removed from the process.