If the everyone but ARG is correct, then Hillary cannot win the nomination, but that doesn't mean she can't stop Obama anyway.
[Before I begin, I would like that thank all those people who rec'd the post in which I mentioned my brother was in the building when the Northern Illinois University shooting took place. I would just like to add that he was on a different floor at the time, and that the university will be closed until the end of the week.]
The other day I was in a heated conversation with a an aquaintence over the election. He said that Hillary was going to win because she was going to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by a wide margin and that the superdelegates would rally to her because....we've heard that drill before. But it got me to thinking, What if ARG were right in this instance? What if she actually wins tomarrow's primary by a tad or s smidge? Could she actually take the nomination?
I checked the math. No. If she won Wisconsin, she would probably win Texas and Ohio, but it wouldn't be enough, and then there's all those "insignificant" states right after Pennsylvania which come right after, and they're from places who don't like her too much anyway.
Any way you game it, Hillary comes up short, way short. But that doesn't mean that Barry has got the whole thing locked up. They could both lose. Consider 1980...
Carter already had the nomination sewn up, but he was losing badly to Reagan in the polls, and most Democrats didn't want him to nominated, even the ones pledged to him, the problem was, the Carter people made it clear that Ted Kennedy was more unacceptable to them than the president was to Ted's. So there was a frantic search for a new candidate. There were half a dozen people who's names were considered, but Carter's people had no choice in the matter, and they voted for their guy.
As of now, two possiblities are clear:by the time we get to Denver in August, either Obama will have the nomination in hand, or neither candidate will have nearly enough to get nominated. If the latter is the case, then both the Clinton and Obama camps would be so angry at each other that neither side would even think of supporting the other. The urban myth among Clinton supporters is that the Superdelegates would come to their rescue, but this this the case?
According to today's New York Times Hillary has been bleeding superdelegate strength since super tuesday. By the time of the convention, most of them may be back to being formally neutral. Unless she wins tomarrow, and then blows Obama away in Texas AND Ohio, she'll be very damaged goods. There is no reason why the elected officials, who want to keep their constituents happy, will shoot themselves in the kidney by forcing the LOSER on the convention.
However, Obama might be pretty damaged himself. The logical thing to do would be for the supers to choose what's behind door number three. Who's that? I dunno. At this point, neither does anyone else.
People would scream, of course, but that's what the supers are there for this year. Unless Hillary withdraws, the supers can take away the nomination from Obama and give it to anyone but Hillary. To give it to her when she's in second place would be suicide. To get her people on board in such a circumstance might mean ditching Obama, too.
Any guesses as to who might be behind door #3?