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Rasmussen, as promised earlier today, has released a pair of general election polls pairing the two leading Democratic candidates with presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain. The states selected were the key states of Florida (carried by the GOP in 2004) and Minnesota (carried narrowly by the Dems in 2000 and 2004).

Link here,for those who wish to check for themselves.

MINNESOTA: Polled by Rasmussen 2/16/08
McCain 47%, Clinton 42%
Obama 53%, McCain 38%

Two things are rather extraordinary about this: McCain leading Clinton in this fairly blue state (Democratic in all presidential elections since 1972, five of eight House seats), and a twenty-point spread between the candidates.

FLORIDA: Polled by Rasmussen 2/16/08
McCain 49%, Clinton 43%
McCain 53%, Obama 37%

This is the first survey I have seen out of Florida that seems to indicate that the primary/delegate kerfluffle is clearly having a negative effect for the Democrats. Not since 1988 has a Republican taken Florida by greater than 5 points. This poll shows McCain leading both candidates by a comfortable margin. Futhermore, this is one of the few states that shows a considerable edge for HILLARY in the head-to-head contest versus McCain.

Most of those states (in recent electoral head-to-head surveys) have been in the South, and the gulf in some of them (Kentucky, in particular, comes to mind) are substantial. One Southern state which seems to be the exception to the rule is Georgia, which both Clinton and Obama trail by around 8 points, including to a new poll late last week.

Clinton supporters will no doubt argue that the South will be written off if Obama is the nominee, whereas she can compete there. To be perfectly accurate, the general election polls lately have borne this theory out.

The problem for Clinton is that the SAME pollsters are showing Hillary Clinton making far too many Kerry 2004 states competitive.

The bottom line--the protracted Democratic primary seems to be helping McCain to some extent. The sooner the Democrats can stop firing on each other and focus their fire on McCain, the better for our chances in November.

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:39 PM PST.

Poll

On Election Day 2008, The Closest Large State Will Be ______.

1%3 votes
27%73 votes
9%26 votes
1%4 votes
45%120 votes
6%16 votes
1%4 votes
5%15 votes

| 261 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Comments, Recs, Love, Hate (17+ / 0-)

    Any additional armchair analysis is always encouraged.

    That was some pretty sweet unintentional aliteration.

    "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
    Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

    by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:39:25 PM PST

    •  Obama will poll (10+ / 0-)

      better than Clinton in Florida once he gets the chance to campaign there.

      The polling is clear (Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado, etc.).  Where Obama campaigns, he polls better than Clinton and does surprisingly well against McCain.

      The electability argument is over.

      •  I Have To See A Southern or Border State... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brittain33

        That Obama puts into play (but Hillary does not) before I buy your conclusion that "the electability argument is over."

        I say that while tending to agree with you, because of Clinton's relative weakness in states that should be securely in the Democratic column.

        "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
        Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

        by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:57:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'll bet... (2+ / 0-)

          He puts Virginia into play.

          kakistocracy - Elections have consequences, but capitulation has its price.

          by RichM on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:12:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Arkansas is the only state Hillary would pull. (0+ / 0-)
        •  I can demonstrate this "goodwill effect" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoundDog

          Compare Clinton vs. McCain to Obama vs. McCain in Washington and Oregon, two states that are very similar politically.

          Here's Oregon from SUSA:

          McCain 49%
          Clinton 45%

          Obama 47%
          McCain 47%

          Now here's Washington, also from SUSA:

          McCain 46%
          Clinton 46%

          Obama 55%
          McCain 38%

          We're used to seeing Washington and Oregon as politically similar, with Washington slightly bluer but only slightly.  So what is the difference we're seeing between Washington and Oregon in these numbers?  Simple - Obama has campaigned in Washington but hasn't yet set foot in Oregon.  (Which is why, although those numbers may not look good now, I'm not worried about them for November.)

          You can see similar results in places like Colorado and Iowa.  In blue/purple states where Obama has campaigned, polls show him leading McCain, and Clinton either trailing or tied.

          In fact, Obama doesn't even have to win a primary to see this result, as recent polls have shown him leading McCain in both New Hampshire and Nevada, with Clinton again trailing or tied.

          I call it the "goodwill effect," and in my lifetime I haven't seen it in any other politician.  Certainly not Kerry or Gore.

          •  Damn, after all that work (0+ / 0-)

            I just realized that poll is a few days off for Washington.  ;-o

            Oh well, my point still basically stands.  Obama was probably already campaigning there, or at least running ads.  And the recent polls out of NV and NH do indicate what I was saying.

          •  I don't think people in Oregon are engaged... (0+ / 0-)

            ...as the primary isn't until May 17, while Washington's caucuses were February 9.

            I did get a Rasmussen phone poll call this weekend, and gave my opinions....I'm an Obama supporter who will hold his nose and vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination.  Obama has 66/31 favorable ratings for Oregon, compared to Hillary with 48/50 and McCain with 56/42.

            9-11 changed everything? Well, Katrina changed it back.

            by varro on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 04:27:15 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  That's because... (0+ / 0-)

          ...nobody's polled Virginia.

          Blue Jersey. All the news that slips from print.

          by Scott in NJ on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:54:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually, SurveyUSA Has Done Just That.... (0+ / 0-)

            Clinton trailed McCain by nine, Obama by 12.

            From late January, so the numbers might have changed.

            "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
            Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
            Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

            by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 04:19:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Florida will turn blue this time (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, HoundDog

        2000 was a fluke, as a lot of elderly Jewish voters came out in droves to vote for Lieberman.

        Since 2000, Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist have one handily in statewide races.

        •  That's the first I've heard of that. (0+ / 0-)

          2000 was a fluke, as a lot of elderly Jewish voters came out in droves to vote for Lieberman.

          I don't know how to take that, and won't make any assumptions about your intentions, but the sentiment is simply wrong.

          Where is it documented that jewish senior citizens who would otherwise not vote went to the polls in droves for a jew as vice-president?

          "From war, corporations have been enthroned, and an era of corruption follows, until all wealth is aggregated, and the Republic is destroyed." Lincoln

          by PJ Jefferson on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:06:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Elderly Jews (0+ / 0-)

          The Republicans have learned how to manipulate the Jewish vote using Israel. That's part of the reason Kerry lost.  It's even worse with Obama because of the e-mails asserting he is a secret Muslim and is part of a scheme to take over the US.  Also, Brezinski worked for Carter, which is the "kiss of death" since the Jews there believe Carter is an anti-semite and wants to destroy Israel.  Dems should write off Florida until there is a generational shift and concentrate elsewhere.  

        •  Florida is Gator Country (0+ / 0-)

          Florida is incapable of doing anything right. Not just in politics (as if 2000, 2004 and the primaries this year weren't convincing). But don't you watch the news in general? Every time something subhuman goes wrong in this country, odds are it's in Florida. Hell, Fark.com has an entire category for Florida - a state as consistently performing in the "duh" department as, say, the category "dumbass".

          "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

          by DocGonzo on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 04:53:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Rasmussen somehow managed (0+ / 0-)

      to blow this poll in Florida.  They have 45% of Florida Dems voting for McCain over Obama.  No way that is even remotely possible.

      I think this Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released February 14th is much more realistic about Florida.  It has McCain in a dead heat with both Obama and Clinton.

      Florida Kossacks Rock

      Blog Florida Blue

      You can't govern if you can't win.

      by gatordem on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:40:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Time spent in FL will pay off for Hillary or Obam (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ATL Dem, jj32, Steve Singiser

    They just have to campaign in Florida.

  •  WTF is wrong with Florida (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, cjallen

    i've been commenting on this for about an hour now. This is totally weird. McCain leads Obama by 23 among women? 31% of Democrats vote McCain when Obama is the nominee?

  •  Obama doesn't need Florida (3+ / 0-)

    if he is competitive in states like Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, perhaps even Virgina.

    •  You need to force (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Yosef 52, DrKate

      Teh republicans to spend there.

      Otherwise they will spend in Pennsylvania.  And that puts us all on the back foot.  It really looks like a squeaker for November based on these figures.

      If McCain a has a secure base in Florida he could easily win if He picks Romney for Veep.

      Romney would shut down any hope of the Rockys (Colorado, Nevada etc, too many Mormons would organize for us to overwhelm) and Romney could conceivably steal a single state in New England.

      McCains bona fides on the economy would also be bolstered.

      McCain does the Commader stuff, Romney does the accounting.

      "It's a race to decide who the British goverment will follow blindly for the next 4 years" Kennedy/Kerry '08

      by Salo on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:46:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dems need every (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Yosef 52, DrKate, dougymi

      state they can get.

      Don't cede Florida. If you do, you're going to find it harder to win the other states. They need to have to campaign there.

    •  A Few Thoughts.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Yosef 52

      I am never a fan of writing off 27 electoral votes, ESPECIALLY when they have been historically competitive.

      Also, Obama still is down slightly in Missouri, and more significantly in Virginia.

      Colorado and Nevada combine for 14 electoral votes. But if you add Iowa, he can win the election with the Kerry states plus those three.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:47:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  careful (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gabriele Droz, Salo, dougymi

      the "candidate" doesn't need this state or that state is not a good idea if one is hoping all votes count, or if one is trying to appeal to everyone.

      sign the petition at http://www.impeachbush.org

      by DrKate on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:47:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yah.... flies in the face of the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Prof Dave

        insignificant state argument that the Clinton campaign has been using. Either the 50 strategy is good for both the primary and the GE or you might as well forget it.

        A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

        by dougymi on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:03:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Florida is gone (7+ / 0-)

    for both of them, McCain is very popular among older voters and the governer there is very popular and very pro McCain. We have a much better shot at states like Virginia and Colorado.

    After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

    by nevadadem on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:42:26 PM PST

  •  I think we have to add this with everything else (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jkennerl, jj32, Steve Singiser

    we have seen for GE polling.  

    Obama runs stronger in Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, etc.

    Hillary runs stronger in Florida, Indiana, and Kentucky (Although she still loses the 3 she runs stronger in)

    •  let me put it a better way (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      Florida is not gone....BUT it would mean Obama has won big everywhere. It's less likely than Virgina, Colorado  and maybe even North Carolina to go for us.

      After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

      by nevadadem on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:45:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I really think Hillary cannot win. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    I really think that is the massage of the polls coming out lately.

    Even when she's closer to McCain than Obama, she still loses.

    The presidency is now a cross between a popularity contest and a high school debate, with an encyclopedia of clichés the first prize. Saul Bellow

    by AUBoy2007 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:43:35 PM PST

  •  Clinton can't win Minnesota (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Pawlenty, R-Gov of MN will be W. McCain's running mate in hopes of bringing MN, WI, and IA to the Republicans. If Clinton is the nominee I would be very worried about these 3 states not to mention Michigan...

    Republicans are not a national party anymore.

    by jalapeno on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:44:15 PM PST

    •  There's a big gaping hole.... (0+ / 0-)

      ....where the I-35W bridge once was that will be screaming at voters against Pawlenty - he vetoed the gas tax that may have shored up that bridge.

      9-11 changed everything? Well, Katrina changed it back.

      by varro on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 04:37:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  To the Hillary Supporters (0+ / 0-)

    The south really shouldn't be in play anyways. The states we should be focusing on are the western states of New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada (I would say Arizona, but it IS McCain's home state).

    •  I Totally Disagree.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gobigblue, dougymi

      One of the things that bothers me about the Obama folks a little bit is that they RIP Hillary mercifully (with justification) for her "states that matter" commentary, but then too many of them dismiss the weak performance of their man in the South vs. McCain by saying...voila!!...that the South does not matter.

      Can't have it both ways.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:53:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The south is the Republican base (0+ / 0-)

        I have no problem whatsoever with us competing there if we have the money, but realistically, if we're winning the south, that basically means electoral disaster for the Republicans. It would be the equivolent of the Republicans winning in New York or New Jersey, at that point, the question becomes "are we going to win ANY state?"

        We fully recognize that we're probably not winning states like Idaho, Utah, Alaska, or North Dakota; but, Obama will clearly give us a very solid opportunity of getting red states into the blue, they include:

        Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia, and Colorado.

        Furthermore, Obama puts swing states, which Kerry barely won into safe territory:

        Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, and New Hampshire. Also Obama seems to start off in a better position in Pennsylvania than Clinton, even though it's supposedly too "racist" (to quote their governor) to vote for a black man.

        Sure Hillary Clinton could possibly put Arkansas and, possibly, Tennessee and Kentucky; but she also keeps states like:

        Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington State, and New Hampshire within the grasp of McCain. Furthermore, McCain may very well end up taking Pennsylvania from her. By the way, if McCain chooses Charlie Crist as his running mate, Florida will be out of reach, no matter who the nominee is.

    •  Romney will kill us in the Rocky (0+ / 0-)

      and South West states.  And it could signal a Republican push in Michigan and New England.

      "It's a race to decide who the British goverment will follow blindly for the next 4 years" Kennedy/Kerry '08

      by Salo on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:02:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not helpful for Hillary to do better than Obama (0+ / 0-)

    if she's still losing FL by outside of the MOE.

    Anyway, with the recent Rasmussen GE polls (assuming [not that this is a safe assumption] that the states not polled so far stick with the party they went for in 2004)]

    we have

    McCain 272 Obama 266

    McCain 322 Clinton 216

  •  Advertising (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    I've been wondering for some time how much of our turnout (which, with some exceptions is better than Kerry's performance in 2004 by over 10%) is due to our advertising in states where the broke Republicans weren't advertising in. And also, how much of that advantage will we retain, come November?

    I do wonder whether this is part of the explanation for the FL numbers. Our turnout in FL was almost exactly the same as Kerry's performance in 2004 (that is, not good enough).

    This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

    by emptywheel on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:46:09 PM PST

  •  Florida: elederly people (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peraspera, Steve Singiser

    this demographic favors Clinton among the Democrats and is most favorable to McCain among the Republicans (lots of retired military)

    So I'll agree that in Florida, HRC is probably a stronger candidate than O, delegate flap or no.

    When liberals saw 9-11, we wondered how we could make the country safe. When conservatives saw 9-11, they saw an investment opportunity.

    by onanyes on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:46:49 PM PST

  •  Florida Democrats are mad. (2+ / 0-)

    No surprise.  Obama leads among Independents in Florida, but among Democrats, there appears to be a backlash because the state was stripped of its delegates.  The voters abandoning Obama appear to Hillary supporters--partisans, older voters, women, etc.  I expect them to come around once he's the nominee and has time to campaign there.  No doubt the race will be close though.  I'd like to see a match-up in Michigan to see if there is a similar trend.

    Note to Florida: Don't screw things up again.

    •  The indies Obama gets (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser, Stroszek

      are the Nadier voters who defected.

      They are not likely to be centrists.

      The whole notion of indies being centrist needs to be kyboshed.

      "It's a race to decide who the British goverment will follow blindly for the next 4 years" Kennedy/Kerry '08

      by Salo on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:48:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed. (0+ / 0-)

      Although I think the DNC also mishandled it. Rarely would I suggest following the Republican Party on ANYTHING. However, I would say that their method of punishment for the MI/FL primaries (automatic loss of one-half of their delegation).

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:49:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The sooner Obama and Clinton agree (0+ / 0-)

      on a plan to re-schedule that primary, the better for all of us.

      "No one could have anticipated those goofy TX primary rules" -- Hillary Condi Clinton

      by Bill White on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:55:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wrong! (2+ / 0-)

      We are mad at the demnocratic party in general for pushing us around and lying to us. First they tell us our vote won't count..okay, we dealt with that. Now they tell us they might use our primary to choose the winner? Oh yeah? Well, we never got a chance to have a real primary, to meet the candidates, to get out the youth and African American vote, to help build recognition for our local candidates and to use a high turnout to get rid of this property tax amendment. Instead, older voters who own property voted..but not the poor, AA, or youth.

      So yeah, we are mad. Not because the delegates won't count..we have known that for a long time. But because the media and the supporters are fighting over us just like back in 2000. Otherwise, you really don't care about us. You call us idiots, stupid and use nasty words to describe us.

      I can certainly understand why so many Floridians are leaning toward McCain. And don't use this as proof that the Floridians want the delegates to count...Hillary would have won here more than likely anyway, even with a campaign because of all the older voters.

      If we had had a chance to BUILD the party, get out voters during the primary, register new voters, etc., you would see McCain losing.

      Stop treating Florida like we didn't deserve a real primary and you will see even more a shift toward red in the future.

      •  Amen! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rian90

        As a former resident of FL, who still has family in the state, I concur. Florida will not turn blue until the DNC and all the other Democratic leaders spend some time and money in the state.

        The evangelicals have a strangle hold on the northern 1/2 of the state and the wealthy 'Rockfeller' Republicans control the southern 1/2 (Orlando is the only toss-up area but Orlando has a very hard time with voter turn out because like Las Vegas, everyone works odd hours at the theme parks, restaurants and in the service industry) All the media outlets - TV, radio & paper-are controlled by Repubs, the only exceptions would be the St. Pete Times and The Sun-Sentenial in Ft. Laud.

        My father was so pissed off about delegates not counting he almost didn't vote for the first time in 62 years. He refused to work the polls like he normally does because he couldn't defend what the DNC had done to FL. He knew all the Dems would be bitchin'at the polls.

        •  And there is no good solution to this... (1+ / 0-)

          People like your dad will be angry if the delegates are not seated and people like me will be angry if they are seated. Either way, a lot of democrats are turned off in this state while the Republicans actually do something here. Charlie Crist is even popular with the democrats!

          And another caucus or primary? Its not going to happen unless the DNC pays all the costs. Florida's DNC does not have the money.

    •  so mad that they (0+ / 0-)

      will vote for McCain?

      No offensve to Florida Democrats, but F*ck you then.

  •  It depends on who the Dem nominee is when (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peraspera, Steve Singiser

    answering your poll.

  •  Missouri! (3+ / 0-)

    That one will be close close close...

  •  Obama does have catching up to do in FL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    That good news is, with a longer primary season, Obama has been campaigning in and organizing in more and more states, especially swing states, like MN, WI, IA, NH, OH, WA, MO, and soon, PA. No campaigning in FL, of course, but hopefully, that will change if he is the nominee.

    Mitt Romney looks like an American President in a Canadian movie. -Dave Letterman

    by jj32 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:49:41 PM PST

  •  Dems wasted too much time in FL in 2004 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peraspera, NMLib, zackamac

    Florida was only the 12th closest state in 2004.  Per wikipedia:

    1. Wisconsin.  Kerry +0.38
    1. Iowa.  Bush +0.67
    1. New Mexico.  Bush +0.79
    1. New Hampsire.  Kerry +1.37
    1. Ohio.  Bush +2.11
    1. Pennsylvania.  Kerry +2.50
    1. Nevada.  Bush +2.59
    1. Michigan.  Kerr +3.42
    1. Minnesota.  Kerry +3.48
    1. Oregon.  Kerry +4.16
    1. Colorado.  Bush +4.67
    1. Florida.  Bush +5.01

    Actually, let me put it a little differently.  I do think that Hillary is liable to be the stronger general election candidate in Florida specifically.  But I also think that the state is almost a 'must win' for her, in a way that it simply isn't for Obama.  

    Barack Obama. Because we can do better.

    by poblano on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 02:55:56 PM PST

  •  FL will stay red with McCain (0+ / 0-)

    The state just had a very popular republican governor leaving office and recently elected another republican governor who they seem to like pretty much...

    Hillary does better then Obama because she's able to get much more support then he can among the veteran + jewish population who may not trust a candidate with a muslim name.

    The good news for Obama is he may not need Florida because he's able to put states like Nevada , Iowa , Colorado , New Mexico , in play.

  •  Florida is low for Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    saintsaetia

    because we (I am in Florida) haven't heard a speech, haven't seen an advertisement or has been on the local news because he was in town.  Simply put ... Florida doesn't know him!

  •  Florida has been trending Republican (0+ / 0-)

    and it's been reliably republican except for 1996 (and 2000 most here would argue).  Like Pennsylvania on the other side, Florida is a lean-red state rather than a tossup.  I don't think the delegate flap has anything to do with it.  Although perhaps when we see the head-to-heads in Michigan I'll be proved wrong.

    Okay, if there's no god, then who changes the water? --One goldfish to another

    by s choir on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:01:11 PM PST

  •  Obama can win Georgia, Hillary can't. /nm (0+ / 0-)

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:03:57 PM PST

  •  I sometimes think that Florida (2+ / 0-)

    is one of the best arguments for a 49 state strategy.

    I spent a fair amount of time there, admittedly in a building full of rich old people and on golf courses. I never met anyone inclined to vote for a Democrat -- other than my in-laws, except they are Canadian. I'm sure its not that way everywhere, but the state certainly seems to be going downhill quickly. In the case of all the millions of people in those oceanfront condos mayve the best hope is plaintive begging from the grandchldren.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:04:14 PM PST

  •  I'm trying to google generic polls, but having no (0+ / 0-)

    luck.

    The closest I got was this, a paper from Emory University explaining that the Democratic candidate is going to get the vast majority of voters 2008 and win by a comfortable margin, no matter who the candidate is.

    These Obama vs. McCain/Clinton vs. McCain polls are worthless.  The vast majority of Obama supporters will support Clinton, and the vast majority of Clinton supporters will support Obama.

    Once the candidates are decided, then let's see what the polls say.  

    Democrats are out-voting and out-contributing Republicans by crazy margins, and to think that's going to change because Hillary is the candidate is crazy.  

    We're going to blow them out and increase the lead in Congress no matter who the candidate is.  Specific polls don't show that.  Only generic polls do.  Hopefully someone here can find a recent one (and hopefully it won't make me a liar).

    "From war, corporations have been enthroned, and an era of corruption follows, until all wealth is aggregated, and the Republic is destroyed." Lincoln

    by PJ Jefferson on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:04:33 PM PST

  •  This is a sample of what we are up against... (0+ / 0-)

    Clinton - Obama '08 Winning Change for America and the Democratic Party

    by dvogel001 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:07:11 PM PST

  •  Clinton loses (0+ / 0-)

    The upper Midwest to McCain in pretty much every single one of these polls, which would absolutely kill the Democrats in a general election.  Can't win without MN and WI.

    OH-16: John Boccieri will finally end 36 years of Regula Rule.

    by marcvstraianvs on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:08:25 PM PST

  •  Florida is becoming out of reach (0+ / 0-)

    The trends are too heavy against Democrats there.  All of the growth is occuring in the heavily Republican I-4 corridor.  

  •  The great thing is that with Obama, we won't need (0+ / 0-)

    Ohio or Florida.  He'll win Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado and that will be that.

  •  Joke: what is btwn Phila. and Pittsburgh? (0+ / 0-)

    Mississippi. Pennsylvania won't be a cake walk this time even with Rendell.

  •  It's Hilarious (0+ / 0-)
    that any of you think ANY Democrat is gonna carry Florida...Clinton LOST Florida in 92, he won in 96 because of incumbency, since then, NO Democrat has won FL.  (Spare me the Al Gore stuff, regardless of what happened, he ain't President now.)

    "Cynicism is a sorry kind of wisdom." -Barack Obama

    by dlh77489 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 03:46:03 PM PST

  •  what's the matter with florida (0+ / 0-)

    while working for the democratic party on primary day i had an older gentleman come up to me and tell me he was a lifelong dem but if obama is candidate he will have to vote for mccain! some democrat!! i moved here in 1991 from conn. big mistake. i soured on fl. 6 months after i got here but the wife(now ex)loved it. the only positive for me now is i at least found my soul mate in my second wife. this place is filling up with lame brained yahoos on a daily basis. we have more reg. dems than rethugs but they control everything. i was very optimistic about this election but i'm starting to feel a bit cautious now. we have no margin for errorthis time. if the rethugs win the white house and (god forbid) the congress they will NEVER again lose power. it's time to close ranks and pick up our game and kick their lying butts once and for all!

    •  HAHA (0+ / 0-)

      YOU soured on Florida six months after moving there. i moved back to New York six months after moving there. It's 20 degrees and last Tuesday it took me 2 hours to get home from work on Long Island because of an ice storm, but I would gladly drive in 100 ice storms before moving back to Florida!

      I've mentioned before also that all the Democrats in my family support Hillary and will also vote McCain in the general if Obama wins the nominee. They exist...everywhere. We need to be prepared for the realization that neither of our candidates are going to be elected in the end. McCain's nomination was the WORST thing that can happen to us.

  •  This Election Will not be a Blowout (0+ / 0-)

    If McCain runs strong in Florida and Texas he will only
    need Ohio. That trifecta is almost foolproof for Repugs. This guy is a real honest to God war hero. And that narrative will play well in the South and the Mid-West. I don't think Michele should be picking curtain fabric just yet. Let's stop the internal strife
    because the right, will in the end coalesce around McCain. I am not so sure the wounds being created on our side will heal so fast. The GE will not be a gimme.

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