This morning, Rasmussen Reports, which has been in the top half of pollsters in terms of accuracy during the last few cycles, has launched a neat new feature.
Taking a variety of sources, they project the 51 presidential contests, and allocate electoral votes accordingly. If the election were held today, according to Rasmussen, Democrats would claim the White House with 284 electoral votes. Republicans would claim 216 electoral votes if the election were held today, with 38 electoral votes (Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia) are too close to call.
So...what is Rasmussen using to make these determinations? Best to let them explain for themselves:
"This Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends. The weight given to each variable will vary over time (i.e.—polls will be counted more heavily in October than today, a state’s history will be counted more heavily today than in October)."
According to the inaugural projections, the Democrats would claim three states from the Bush 2004 coalition (Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico), while losing none of the states which Kerry took in 2004.
In other P2008 general election news, SurveyUSA has polled another state for the general election: Iowa. As has become the custom in all non-Southern states, a significant gulf has emerged between an Obama-McCain matchup and a Clinton-McCain matchup. According to SUSA, if the election were held today, McCain would defeat Clinton by eleven points (52-41), while Obama would beat McCain in the Hawkeye State by ten points (51-41).
The same result in Virginia (H/T Poblano). Hillary trails McCain by three in the commonwealth (48-45), while Obama now leads McCain by six (51-45). This is a stunning reversal from just one month ago, when Hillary trailed by nine, and Obama trailed by twelve. This could be a honeymoon effect from last week's primary win there. It might also be that what many here have alleged is true: Obama polls stronger in places where they have seen him up close and personal.
In other polling news:
- A new Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota Senate race gives an outcome that would make wingnut heads explode across the nation: Al Franken now leads incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (49-46).
- Rasmussen also polls Oregon, and finds Gordon Smith with a lead, but under the magic 50% threshold. Smith leads Steve Novick by 13 points (48-35), and retains a slightly wider lead over Jeff Merkley (48-30).
- Rasmussen polled the WH race in Oregon over the weekend, and found the same trend as elsewhere: McCain up on Clinton (by 3; 45-42), but trailing Barack Obama (by 9; 49-40).
- A new SUSA poll in Ohio shows that Obama now trails Hillary Rodham Clinton by 9 points (52-43) (hat tip to GB1437a).