I just got off the phone with a friend. He's the kind of guy who enjoys running database queries on voter data. I called him before I wrote this to see if he could help me find a reason for Hillary to stay in this race. He couldn't.
It is a mathematical certainty that Hillary Clinton has lost this race. And there is simply no scenario where she can claim the nomination without doing severe harm to the Democratic party.
To understand this you have to understand the enthusiasm of Obama's supporters. There hasn't been anything like it in generations. I asked my wife, who works with African American kids to help them get into college, what her students were thinking about this race.
Suddenly her face lit up. "They're on fire with excitement. I've never seen them like this." I know my wife. She was truly trying to convey to me that something special, almost miraculous was going on. These kids live in horrible circumstances. "They don't get very excited about anything.
But they think he's going to be killed."
"What?', I asked. "Almost unanimously they think he'll be killed."
Think about that for a minute. It is both inspiring and sad. The hope and excitement of a revolutionary transition, tempered by years of defeat and disappointment. This is not another election, by any means.
And it's not just African Americans. It's people of all ages, cultures, genders and backgrounds. Some in the press have tried to marginalize this enthusiasm by calling Obama supporters a cult. This is a pathetic form of cynicism. The result of having covered the tired, uninspired campaigns of the previous 20 or so presidential elections.
This "cult" is the best thing to happen to the Democratic party I've seen in my lifetime. And the only way that Hillary can take the nomination is to kill it.
I know there are a lot of Hillary supporters who haven't given up. I respect that. And I would remind Obama supporters that over 400,000 Wisconsans, mostly Democrats, voted for Hillary tonight. That's a lot of people.
But it's not just that Ms. Clinton has lost the last 20 plus elections, It's how she is losing them, 15-20-30 point spreads. The tide has clearly turned. And there's no way to turn it back.
There is a way to destroy the tide though. And we've been getting reports that the Clintons intend to do just that if they can have their way about it.
You know, I actually met Hillary Clinton back in 1992. It was a little meet and greet and for years I thought about it. I would hear people call her a bitch, cold, arrogant etc. and I always laughed at the irony. The Hillary I met was extremely charming, warm and funny. She has a great laugh. Someone at the time I would have definitely loved to have had a beer with.
I have no doubt that that Hillary is still there. But for the life of me I cannot understand some of the decisions she's made in this campaign. From allowing real nice guys like Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson on board. To even considering a maneuver to pluck pledged delegates from Obama, to what appears to be using Karl Rove's playbook, the Clintons have damaged themselves in this race, and in the party.
It's time to face facts. Not only has Hillary lost this race, but she seriously imperils her ability to hold her Senate seat if she continues. Because the only way she can continue, the only way she can possibly take the nomination, is through means that will be seen by a significant majority of Democrats, almost all African Americans, and pretty much every Obama supporter as unfair, unethical, and undemocratic. And they will be correct.
What possibly can the Clinton campaign expect to gain from Ohio and Texas? That they can get close enough to win with superdelegates? That they can get close enough to convince enough party members to sabotage the Obama tide? To turn the convention into a riot?
And how would they do this? By going so negative that they tear Obama apart? Throw his character in doubt? That fire that my wife's students are feeling, is this something the Clinton campaign really wants to destroy?
How do you stop that wave without sinking all the boats that are rising on it? How do you go to war with hope, when for so many, that is all they have? I do not exaggerate when I tell you that for millions of African Americans, most who have never had a male role model outside of star athletes or rap musicians, Obama is not just a good speaker. And he's not just a black politician. He is the correction of a great injustice.
How do you take that down? Stop its momentum? At your own peril. That's how.