With half of of Wisconsin tallied, it was clear than Barack Obama won, and won decisively. In between the total returns are these gems:
Obama is handily trouncing Hillary Clinton in, of all places, northern Wisconsin's vacation destination, Door County. More impressive than the Obama 60-40 domination is that over two-thirds of the votes were in the Democratic column. That could be lack of interest in the Republican candidates, but more likely it is moderate Republicans and independents embracing Obama.
In conservative Republican Green County less than 25% of the votes went to GOP candidates. Again, Obama is scoring over 60% against Clinton. Green County, the most solid Republican suburban county, cast 7300 Democratic votes and 2000 Republican votes.
Statewide, Hillary Clinton's total is greater than all of the Republican totals.
The implications:
The Obama candidacy is stronger than the numbers show. Hillary Clinton's vote total included a 3-5% that was a Republican cross-over that will vote McCain in November.
But the Obama support from moderate and Republican voters is genuine based on his strong turnout in more conservative parts of the state.
When the candidates move to Ohio and Texas, where there is no Republican cross-over, Obama will increase his margins - as long as there are no major blunders.
Conservative Milwaukee talk radio spent much of the week embracing a vote for Hillary since the Republican primary was meaningless. The logic was that Hillary would be easier to defeat in November, and heavens forbid if the Democrats take the White House, Hillary would be more conservative than Obama.
Looking at the size of the vote in both parties, the distribution of the vote between Clinton and Obama, it is safe to say that Republican votes cast for Obama are genuine, Republican votes cast for Clinton are not. Thus, the conclusion that among voters who will vote Democratic in November, the Obama victory margin over Clinton is greater than it appears.
When we discussed the why of all of this ofWTDY last night with Sly, John Nichols of The Capital Times and The Nation there was a conclusion expressed by Bill Lueders of Isthmus and shared by the rest of us to one degree or another:
Hillary Clinton has already disappointed us, Barack Obama will, but he has not.
I am not as cynical as Bill, he is a real journalist, but so long as there is hope and the remote chance that on critical issues, Obama will honor those who elected him, he will receive their support. Hillary Clinton cannot devise a winning strategy under those circumstances.
As the night drew on the Obama margin holding at 55% began to creep up. First to 56% and then quickly 58%. At the half way point during the evening, little of Madison and Milwaukee had reported. It is now clear as the state's two largest cities report, pushing both of their counties to 66% for Obama, that the young voters of all colors are responding to his message.
The young white voters had made a foray into Wisconsin elections in November, 2006 enticed by the thought of defeating the 'marriage' amendment to the state Constitution offered by the Republicans. More stunning is the response by the traditionally lowest cadre to turn out, young black voters.
Meantime, network commentators are falling over each other trying to explain the polls that put the candidates with 4 or 5% of one anorther.
There are two problems with the polls. The first is that poll does not get honest results because of faulty interviews and poor technique.
The second error, and the one that both the candidates and news organizations make is the projection of results based on the "likely voter." As usual, the pollsters and samplers did not accurately forecast the turnout. They were caught off guatd by young voters, particularly from black communities in Milwaukee and the southern part of Wisconsin.
Then there were the undecideds. As the election approaches the dwindling, remaining undecideds move towards the challenger and away from the incumbent. Some polls showed undecideds as high as 11%. Clearly, Hillary Clinton was the 'incumbent.'
The long term implications for progressives is significant if the Democrats do not blow it.