(Cross-posted at The Field.)
Tonight, in the role of Senator Clinton, The Field presents the fabulous Sarah Michelle Gellar with a preview of what to expect over the next two weeks…
The last ten primaries and caucuses have taken the fight out of the Clinton campaign. Its last hope was to somehow take down Senator Obama. In the context of the high tension and theater of the past 14 days, it wasn’t evident to all that the latest line of attacks never had a chance of working. Now, in retrospect, most folks see them for what they were...
One of the more astute analyses today came from the beltway blog, Wonkette, which vetted key talking points of Clinton strategist Mark Penn in the wake of yesterday’s Wisconsin blow out. The piece is funny because it rings so true:
- “Neither candidate will emerge from the primary fight with the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.” OK, this is probably correct; if Hillary wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania as she is planning on doing, the magic 2,025 number can only be reached via superdelegates. Problem: She will lose all of those states by a million points, and most uncommitted superdelegates will go to Obama.
- “Two Weeks is a Long Time in Political Terms.” It is two weeks until the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries, and during long periods of time, Hillary will supposedly become Jesus and everyone will vote for her. Problem: Another thing that happens over long periods of time is that more people switch to Barack Obama.
- “Debates Matter.” Hillary is a slightly better debater, and when she brings up those health care mandates this time, it’s going to do a real bang-up job on Barry! Problem: Barry is the frontrunner, and the debate will be boring, and boring debates support the frontrunner.
- “Obama is the frontrunner = more scrutiny.” Well that speaks for itself. Problem: We already know he’s black!
- “Big States Matter More.” Whee! Hillary’s proposed wins in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania are all delegate-rich, and that’s why Wisconsin doesn’t matter! Problem: When Obama wins these states, all of these delegates will go to him.
And yet, if you’re Senator Clinton, you can’t bow out gracefully quite yet. You’re now “going through the motions” and hoping that lightning or scandal strikes your adversary.
But now there’s another problem: Tonight’s New York Times investigative story on Republican frontrunner John McCain – a messy lobbyist history with a whiff of suggested sexual infidelity that’s going to fire up his critics in the Republican right-wing and among the anti-immigrant crazies in a last ditch effort to derail his nomination – is going to suck up all the oxygen - the attention of major daily newspapers and national media investigative teams - for at least the rest of this week and probably through those very same March 4 primaries when Republican primary voters will be judge, jury and, possibly (but not likely) executioner.
Clinton has tried hard to convince the media to get tough on Obama. Enter the McCain scandal and there’s suddenly no room or time on its docket to go to through the bother of it.
Meanwhile, there’s a new spring in the step of Obama and his millions of supporters that’s even bouncier than before. Unlike between Iowa and New Hampshire, when that smile brought too much smug complacency, this time the energy is going into a hurricane of take-nothing-for-granted grassroots organizing and fundraising. In two days, they’ve accomplished more toward a Texas upset than Clinton accomplished spending most of the entire week prior there.
And so Clinton will fight on, but with diminishing returns each day, until Ohio and Texas vote, where she has not two, but three, must-win contests: two primaries and an extra set of caucuses in Texas the night of March 4. Lose just one of the three, or have only symbolic victories but a virtual tie in delegate count, and the balloon goes pop nonetheless.
The remaining question is whether, as occurred in recent weeks, the Clinton camp tries to create a scandal where there is none and goes all nasty again on its adversary, in which case the post-March 4 concession speech won’t provide the opportunity for a head-held-high, graceful and gracious exit and risk destroying any political future the senator can salvage from this episode. Anyone care to place bets on which way that’s going to go?