Russia on Kosovo: We've Not Ruled Out Force
Russia -- which has not recognized Kosovo's sovereignty -- said it has not ruled out using force to resolve the dispute over the territory if NATO forces breach the terms of their U.N. mandate.
"If the EU works out a single position or if NATO steps beyond its mandate in Kosovo, these organizations will be in conflict with the U.N., and then I think we will also begin operating under the assumption that in order to be respected, one needs to use force," Moscow's ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said, in comments carried by Russia's Interfax news agency.
A spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry also warned that Kosovo's declaration would have a "negative impact."
"What happened in Belgrade yesterday is regrettable. But we would want to draw your attention to the fact that the forces that supported the unilateral recognition of Kosovo's independence should have realized the effects of the move," spokesman Mikhail Kamynin told Interfax.
Eep.
more from The BBC on Russian Media comments:
The EU will soon deploy 2,000 officials to strengthen law and order in Kosovo, which has a population of about two million. Russia argues that the mission has no legal basis.
There has been a furious reaction in some Russian media to Kosovo's declaration of independence.
A commentary in the Vesti Plus analytical programme, on state-run television, called the assassinated former Serbian Prime Minister, Zoran Djindjic, a Western puppet who had "received a well-deserved bullet".
It said Djindjic had sold national heroes to the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague.
Given the, cough, freedom of the press for which Putin's Russia is famous, one has to assume the media have been given free rein to comment.
Russian Envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, decries NATO blocking of Serbian officials from entering Kosovo:
Rogozin also said he had received unconfirmed reports that NATO troops were blocking the border between Kosovo and Serbia and not allowing Serbian officials to cross over into Kosovo.
'This is not what we agreed. If this information is confirmed, then here in Brussels there will be some tough talking with our partners, and there could be quite a dramatic development in relations between Russia and NATO,' Rogozin was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying.
NATO 'must not in any way get involved with politics and must instead do what it has done up until now: take a neutral position of non-interference in internal affairs,' he said.
The Russian Patriarch Alexy II weighed in also:
Moscow, February 20, Interfax - Patriarch Alexy II of Moscow and All Russia has slammed Kosovo's unilaterally declared independence.
Kosovo's independence, declared on Sunday, "is an anti-historic event that upsets the global balance and that may lead to very tragic events in a whole series of spots on the globe where separatist sentiments are being fanned," Alexy said answering questions from journalists in Moscow on Wednesday.
Alexy II cited himself as saying in a speech at the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly in October 2007 that advocates of independence for Kosovo were "people who had never been to Kosovo, didn't know the history of that land, and didn't know what Kosovo means to the Serbs."
The Russian Foreign Ministry's prognosis is Two Kosovos, one Serb one Albanian:
MOSCOW. Feb 22 (Interfax) - Russia does not rule out the possibility of Kosovo splitting into Serbian and Albanian parts.
"A situation is emerging which in the future may lead to the self- isolation of Kosovan Serbs who disagree with or do not accept the unilateral proclamation of the independence of Kosovo by Pristina," Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's fourth European department in charge of relations with the Balkans, told Interfax on Friday.
Such an arrangement would have to be imposed by force. But the Russians have not ruled out force, have they?
Eep.
Now at such a juncture, one might think the Europeans would be inclined to talk things over a bit more. Er...don't look like it's going down that way:
Brussels - The European Union's foreign policy chief Javier Solana says the EU will not resume negotiations on a cooperation agreement with Serbia until the current violence in Belgrade and on the Kosovo border ends. Mr Solana said contact between Serbia and Brussels would resume once calm had returned. The cooperation agreement is seen as a symbolic first step on the road to Serbia's eventual membership in the organisation.
The Russians are sending signals of their displeasure far and wide. Canada was warned off of recognition:
Georgiy Mamedov, the Russian Ambassador to Canada, is also warning Canada to tread carefully. Russians have long historical and cultural links with Serbs. Mamedov said Kosovo's separatist move could aid Quebec's separatists.
The U.S. has rejected the argument, stating that Kosovo is a unique case.
"The unusual combination of factors found in the Kosovo situation -- including the context of Yugoslavia's breakup, the history of ethnic cleansing and crimes against civilians in Kosovo, and the extended period of UN administration -- are not found elsewhere and therefore make Kosovo a special case," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a statement on Monday.
Russia is not nearly so isolated, either. the Poles are not in a hurry to recognize Kosovo independence, because they are not of one mind on the matter:
The issue of Kosovo’s recognition has both an international and domestic dimension in Poland. Marcin Sobczyk, Warsaw Bureau chief of Intefax Central Europe: ‘On the one hand Poland doesn’t want to rush with it, not to irritate Russia too much. The government want to rebuild its ties a little with Russia and of course a very hasty recognition of Kosovo would be a negative factor for those relations. Secondly, there’s a complicated domestic situation. The struggle between the president and prime minister makes the Kosovo issue in Poland a touchy subject also in terms of domestic policy.’
A close aide to the Polish Prime minister said that president Lech Kaczyński is all for a wait-and-see attitude in view of Poland’s strategic alliances to the south-east of the country’s borders where separatist tendencies are very strong. Georgia is a good example here. Marcin Sobczyk argues that in the final account it not that important if Poland will be the 10th or 20th country to recognize Kosovo. It’s good though that it wasn’t in the first league.
‘It’s definitely good not to be the first country to recognize Kosovo and its probably wise to wait a little with it since not all EU members agree on this issue. It’s not only Spain but other countries that have their own problems with minorities. In the end what will matter is that Poland will be having a moderate stance on it and a wait of a week or two will help to balance all the positions.’
Polish politicians, including those from the governing coalition, do not see eye to eye on the issue. Some analysts go as far as saying that Poland should not recognize Kosovo’s independence. In doing so, they claim, Warsaw would not be an exception among EU members.
Poland is the front-line state if tensions should flare up between Europe and Russia anew.
n other news, it looks like ties between Ukraine and Russia are very much on the mend with the Ukraine government announcing the planned creation of a free trade zone between the two countries.
Tymoshenko ordered the economy ministry to prepare documents for going over to relations with the Russian Federation according to the methods and principles of the World Trade Organization. "We have proposed to the Russian Federation that even before Russia's joining the WTO we would start forming relations practiced at that organization, observing all of its procedures, norms and regulations," she said stressing that it may become a priority of bilateral cooperation.
Given the tug-of-war for influence in Ukraine between Russia and Europe, the timing cannot be coincidental. Ukrainians are of two minds about their former hegemon, but of late the pro-US./Europe crowd has been on the outs. It's not likely to get better if things get hot in Kosovo.
As for influence elsewhere on a topic of strong interest to the Russians, Talks between the US and Poland on missile defense basings are stalled
WARSAW - Talks on Washington’s plans for an anti-missile shield in Europe are in deadlock because Poland is unhappy with recent US proposals, a leading Polish newspaper reported today.
Warsaw called off discussions scheduled for today, said the liberal daily Gazeta Wyborcza, which is considered well-informed on government issues.
No further Polish-US meetings are set to take place before Prime Minister Donald Tusk visits US President George W. Bush in Washington on March 10, it said.
Polish foreign ministry spokesman Piotr Paszkowski declined to comment on the report.
Another coincidence, one supposes. Then again, perhaps not:
WARSAW, Feb. 20 (Xinhua) -- A thaw in relations with Russia is a new element in Poland's foreign policy, Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Wednesday.
Summing up the work of his ministry after 100 days in office, Sikorski said that "Poles were waiting for the normalization of Polish-Russian relations."
Sikorski said that his philosophy boiled down to "getting Poland out of the quasi-isolation it was in before," according to Polish news agency PAP.
Sikorski spoke about goodwill gestures which brought about the thaw in Polish-Russian relations, including the recent visit of Poland's prime minister to Russia, and Russia's lifting its ban on imports of Polish food.
Winning Poland back from the Americans, or drawing Poland back from a clearly adversarial posture, would be a huge coup for Putin's Russia. Doing so right now as the Kosovo matter flares up is well-timed. A lot of legwork remains to be done but, as the turnaround in Ukraine shows, the Russians are feeling their diplomatic oats.
Another country with concerns about separatism is Azerbaijan, which has its own separatist worries.
Meanwhile, the Russians are chatting up Tajikistan about military cooperation:
Rakhmon, for his part, expressed gratitude to the Russian president for all he has done "for the development of Russian-Tajik strategic partnership".
"Thanks to you, our relations have become more harmonious, have reached a new stage – the stage of carrying out joint projects in major spheres, which have no analogues in the post-Soviet space," Rakhmon said.
And then we come to Russian military capabilities. On paper, the Russians have a very few number of rather interesting, slow to develop toys. Even the weapons that give NATO commanders pause, such as the Moskit or Sunburn naval cruise missile, do not seem to be available in large numbers.
That is, until you recognize that Russian military production capability is far, far greater if you account for foreign arms exports. Were that production to be kept in-house, then there is not much near for gearing up for a full-scale war effort.
This piece here by Andrei Kislyakov laments how little Russia is keeping for its own purposes...and tipping a rather unsettling card in the process:
T-90 Main Battle Tanks in the Russian armed forces can be counted on the fingers of one hand. But 310 of these tanks have already been produced for India, and there are contractual commitments to supply it with another 347. The Iskander [cruise missile] system is no exception. It has long been popular in the Middle East.
If the situation remains the same, our tanks will leave our tank-training grounds, and our surface aircraft will land on foreign ships. But in this case, the effectiveness of our own program of rearmament will be close to zero.
Now the Russians do deliver on their commitments except in one area - spare parts, which has greatly annoyed the Indians time and again.
(had linky format issues here is the source for that last remark)
http://www.upi.com/...
But if you were trying to hide your own arms buildup inside of foreign arms sales, the first think you'd skimp on would be delivery of spare parts...on account you'd be needed them were you expecting a war in the near future.
Another interesting tale is Algeria is not entirely happy with some MiG fighters it received, sending 15 of them back and saying they were second-hand, full of used or low-quality parts, an unprecedented rejection. The Russians decry French maneuverings in Algerian domestic politics especially since Sarkozy has come to power, being the cause of the change. This matter broke last year but apparently it's newworthy right now. Either way, the Russians have all the planes back and, one supposes, all the parts that go with them.
I think the Russians see a lot of stars aligning, both good and bad.
I think, wise or not, Putin is preparing for a confrontation. His people are being rallied for war, a cause has been decried, an issue that resonates with traditional Slavic allies and with new friends in the East (separatist movements) has been handed him and with foreign arms sales dropping and capacity free for in-house production, i think the Russians feel it might be a good time to get their war on.
What's clear is the Europeans don't buy it, don't see any danger, for some reason think the Americans have spare capacity and inclination to tack on another war to the roster, given prior signals sent by the Bushies that they can impose their will wherever they please and the Russians will just eat it.
Thing is, the Russians aren't going to this once. Then again, perhaps what they want out of it, for now, is a prestigious Russian base in northern Kosovo, a way to bring Serbia deeper into the fold, an excuse to re-forge on presumably more volunteer terms ties with eastern Europe at the expense of NATO.
Oh, and to excuse itself from the Conventional Arms in Europe Treaty, the main reason for making then exporting away all those lovely tanks and planes and spare parts.
The Russians are nowhere close to being able to demonstrate their rearmament openly, but rest assured: It is happening, and Kosovo while unlikely to spark a major shooting war between the great powers, the Russians are going to start placing markers on the board again over this.
In fact, based on the diplomatic maneuverings alone, I think they have already begun.