OK. Caveat. I'm a bit of a poll nut and any poll that has a Margin of Error greater than 4.2% gets treated with suspicion by me. Technically, any poll that has an MoE greater than 5% is supposed to be called a survey, not a poll. A poll that has an MoE of 3.5% or less gets more attention from me anyway.
The latest poll from Texas is by Decision Analyst which appears to be a Texas based firm. The MoE is 3% so that's a plus. The results..well, flip it
This poll shows an eye popping 57% to 43% lead for Sen. Obama. That's simply amazing given that other polls show it much closer. This is the first poll I've seen that covers the debate night so maybe it is showing some movement.
Maybe, maybe not. Let's dig a little deeper According to the methodology it looks like they balanced the poll by a number of factors but there's one glaring issue. It appears to have been done online and that raises questions. It doesn't invalidate their sample but it does limit the sample to those who responded online.
Therefore I think it's an outlier but worth posting for two reasons. It shows a snapshot of those responding during and post debate. I found this nugget prominently displayed at Political Wire and it should have had a disclaimer.
Having said that I also am familiar with field operations and I can tell you from following some of the accounts, the Obama campagn continues to operate at a high performance level. They are disciplined and effective whereas the Clinton operation, while good, simply does not appear to have the boots on the ground.
We're still two weeks out and that's a huge amount of time. Not only can anything happen but there's simply no guarantee for either candidate. The only thing I know is if one campaign takes it for granted, they can be surprised. The Clintons are fighting from behind so the only thing to do is re-double the effort. To win, one must work and that work is either on the ground or making contributions.