If anything symbolizes the mortgage disaster, it is whole neighborhoods of McMansions littered with abandoned house, some stripped of copper, sometimes sheltering squatters.
What will happen to these neighborhoods when the dust settles? Christopher B.Leinberger in a article
in The Atlantic, says that even if the mortgage crisis didn't exist, long term changes in demographics and buyer preferences may turn these into unwanted behemoth slums.
A structural change is under way in the housing market—a major shift in the way many Americans want to live and work. It has shaped the current downturn, steering some of the worst problems away from the cities and toward the suburban fringes. And its effects will be felt more strongly, and more broadly, as the years pass. Its ultimate impact on the suburbs, and the cities, will be profound.
More of us want to live in walkable neighborhoods, even as most new developments are car oriented. Increased gasoline and heating cost may also make suburban living less desirable.
In most metropolitan areas, only 5 to 10 percent of the housing stock is located in walkable urban places (including places like downtown White Plains and Belmar). Yet recent consumer research ... suggests that roughly one in three homeowners would prefer to live in these types of places.
Well, what then happens to all the sprawling distant developments that have no market. What always happens to unwanted housing, they go to the poor and become slums. But that is not all, the buildings are much more fragile and rickety than traditional slums.
This future is not likely to wear well on suburban housing. Many of the inner-city neighborhoods that began their decline in the 1960s consisted of sturdily built, turn-of-the-century row houses, tough enough to withstand being broken up into apartments, and requiring relatively little upkeep. By comparison, modern suburban houses, even high-end McMansions, are cheaply built. Hollow doors and wallboard are less durable than solid-oak doors and lath-and-plaster walls. The plywood floors that lurk under wood veneers or carpeting tend to break up and warp as the glue that holds the wood together dries out; asphalt-shingle roofs typically need replacing after 10 years. Many recently built houses take what structural integrity they have from drywall—their thin wooden frames are too flimsy to hold the houses up.
What does mean for our political and social future? Comments welcome.
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