Read it and weep, fellow Democrats:
Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Poll. Only 44% to 40% these days.
Of course, the overall impression of Congress has been dismally low for months, hovering below George W Bush in the mid-teens. The reasons for that are fairly obvious: Congress won't stop a war that 65% of the nation wants ended; it's wasting a lot of time on steroid use in baseball; it won't vigorously launch investigations into the administration's culture of corruption; it seems ineffective on anything else that matters. But most of this wouldn't account for the narrowing of the Democratic lead, so let's investigate possible reasons for that, below the fold.
- Democrats have not yet shown that they are fiscally responsible. In 2006, Democrats had a window of opportunity to show that it really is more fiscally responsible than the Republican Party. Republicans have done an excellent hit job on the PAYGO system, calling it a fraud at every opportunity. Googling "PAYGO" and "fraud" nets 10,300 hits, and almost all of them say that the Democratic PAYGO system is a fraud. The Democrats might remained immune from this attack, except they suspended the rules regarding PAYGO when forced into the Hobson's choice of either suspending it or providing relief for those affected by the alternative minimum tax. They did this without any cuts or revenue-raising to make up for it. As one blogger puts it:
Paygo doesn't apply to domestic discretionary spending, and it doesn't restrain spending increases under current law in entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid. Its main goals are to make tax cutting all but impossible, while letting Democrats pretend to favor "fiscal discipline," a la Ms. Pelosi's boast above.
Democrats WILL lose in the long run if they don't lower the deficit. Fortunately, George Bush has provided an amazing opportunity for the Democrats to appear fiscally responsible, as he has presented an enormous budget for 2009 absolutely swimming in red ink. All Democrats need to do now to regain the upper hand on this issue is to propose a budget with less red ink. Republicans will also do their own thing to belie the idea that they care about the national debt as well: they'll continue to do things like punishing Jeff Flake for saying the emperor has no clothes, and continue to support the wasteful war. But these will only help in the short-term. In order to score long-term gains, the Democrats will have to act like the adults with regard to the pocketbook, so they can rightfully point out that the Republicans are nothing more than thieves with stolen credit cards.
- The longer the Democrats don't stop the war, the more the difference between the two parties on this issue will be blurred. Face it, 65% want us out. Almost all of those are Democrats and independents. But independents likely are coming to the conclusion that Congressional Democrats aren't any more interested in stopping the war than Republicans. Given the perceived lack of difference on this issue, independents are likely reverting back to fiscal issues, and not finding much of a difference there either right now. Conclusion: Democrats are beginning to pay for their lack of spine on the war.
- Republicans aren't in power anymore...it is more difficult for them to exhibit their almost daily display of arrogance and corruption, so the public's memory is beginning to fade a bit. This can be overcome with advertising ---- these issues are not stale, just not at the forefront.