If you’re like me, when you hear someone say that Obama is winning due to unprecedented Republican crossover voting, you roll your eyes. It couldn’t be true. Or could it? I decided to test this hypothesis by visiting the CNN exit polling pages, where one can find out just how many Republicans and Democrats have been crossing over. Well, folks, it turns out that this myth is just that: a myth. Obama is not winning due to the Republican crossover vote, and I can prove it. Numbers junkies, come & see!
Now, unfortunately, the CNN exit polls sometimes don’t disclose what percentage of crossover Republicans vote for Obama as opposed to Clinton, but even without this bit of data, the information illustrates that, with one notable exception, Obama does not owe his wins to Republican crossovers. Other data problems I encountered included the fact that data from Michigan was useless since Obama wasn’t on the ballot, and further, there were no exit polls done in caucus states or in New Hampshire or the District of Columbia. The absence of information from the caucus states is especially harmful, since those states seem to be the source of most of these allegations of "unfair" stacking of the deck by Republicans. Nonetheless, some important trends emerge.
Methodology:
First, I gathered data regarding the percentage of Republicans who voted Democratic and the percentage of Democrats who voted Republican in each primary state for which data was available. Then I translated that into raw numbers, so we can compare the actual number of crossover voters in each state.
Second, where possible, I found the percentage of Republicans who voted for Clinton and the percentage of Republicans who voted for Obama, and translated this percentage into raw numbers.
Then, I recorded the margin of victory for either Clinton or Obama, again expressed as a percentage, translated into a raw number of votes through subtraction.
Finally, I compared the winning candidate’s margin of victory in raw votes with the number of Republicans who voted for that candidate. Where the Republican vote was not broken down into Clinton votes vs. Obama votes, I just gave the winning candidate the benefit of the doubt and assumed that all of the Republicans voted for the winning candidate (essentially, playing the "worst case scenario" fears of those who believe Republicans are throwing contests). By comparing the winning candidate's overall margin of victory with the winning candidate's number of Republican votes, I have shown that Republicans usually have not affected the outcome of the primaries.
Summary of Results:
First, Republican votes definitely affected who won the primary in one state: Missouri. Obama received 36,920 votes from Republicans and won the state by 9,997 votes. But it is too simplistic to say that Republicans "threw" the vote to Obama; the overall margin of victory was fewer than 10,000 votes, and any other subgroup could just as easily be credited (or blamed) for this victory. Further, because Clinton and Obama split the delegates in that state 36-36, one might argue that the main effect of this Obama victory was psychological. But all the same, this is concrete proof that in a closely contested state, Obama’s advantage among Republicans helped put him over the top.
Second, Republican votes may have affected the outcome of the New Mexico primary. Clinton’s margin of victory was 1,709 votes. There were a total of 2,968 votes cast by Republicans in the primary, but it is unknown how those votes break down by candidate. While it is perhaps unlikely that Clinton’s margin of victory among Republicans was more than 1,709 out of 2,968, given that Obama tends to fare better among Republicans, it is possible, so I’m including that information here.
Third, among states that announced Republican vote totals for Clinton and Obama, Obama won the Republican vote in all states but in Alabama, where Republicans broke for Clinton 52-45.
Nationwide Crossover Voting Analysis:
For all the talk of crossover voting, I expected huge raw number totals. This is not the case. Furthermore, while there is an overall pattern of more Republicans than Democrats crossing over, there is no way of knowing what percentage of Republicans are voting Democratic out of a genuine frustration with their own party (either because of Bush fatigue or because of dislike of the Republican slate) as compared to the percentage who, anecdotally, are voting Democratic to game the primaries.
Additionally, in certain states, obvious factors account for the number of crossover votes (example: Illinois had the highest raw number of crossover Republican votes, presumably to support the hometown senator), while in other states, the high number of crossover votes is more difficult to understand (what could account for the high percentages of crossover Republicans in Virginia and Wisconsin?). I found it interesting that both of Clinton’s "home states," New York and Arkansas, had more Democrats voting Republican than the other way around, bucking the national trend. Meanwhile, Illinois, Obama's home state, leads the pack in Republican crossovers. Here is a chart expressing crossover voting in the primaries this year, arranged from highest number of net Republican crossovers on down:
Repubs. crossing over Dems crossing over Net Republican crossover
Illinois 120,228 35,400 + 84,828 Republicans
Wisconsin 98,969 20,178 + 78,791 Republicans
California 131,265 75,421 + 55,844 Republicans
Virginia 67,928 14,459 + 53,469 Republicans
Missouri 49,227 23,385 + 25,842 Republicans
Oklahoma 28,086 3,298 + 24,788 Republicans
Louisiana 17,877 3,122 + 14,755 Republicans
Maryland 22,809 8,605 + 14,204 Republicans
S. Carolina 21,213 8,858 + 12,355 Republicans
Georgia 41,859 31,178 + 10,681 Republicans
Florida 67,376 57,610 + 9,766 Republicans
New Jersey 33,281 27,843 + 5,438 Republicans
Mass. 24,883 19,847 + 5,036 Republicans
Alabama 26,996 22,561 + 4,435 Republicans
Conn. 7,012 3,003 + 4,009 Republicans
N. Mexico 2,968 n/a + 2,968 Republicans
Delaware 960 n/a + 960 Republicans
Utah 6,131 5,675 + 456 Republicans
Arizona 8,869 10,505 - 1,636 Republicans
Tennessee 18,423 21,905 - 3,482 Republicans
New York 17,213 24,110 - 6,897 Republicans
Arkansas 12,293 20,212 - 7,919 Republicans
In all, 825,926 Republicans have voted in this year’s Democratic primaries, and 437,225 Democrats have voted in this year’s Republican primaries. That means that a total of 388,691 more Republicans than Democrats have switched parties to vote in the primaries this year. When you consider that Obama has about 10.3 million popular votes and Clinton has about 9.3 million popular votes, 400,000 extra crossover Republican primary voters is really a drop in the bucket. It’s equivalent to 2% of the total number of popular votes that have been cast for Clinton & Obama (though it should be noted again that we don’t know how many crossover Republicans there were in the caucus states). When you consider the fact that Bush has a 19% approval rating, the real story is the fact that this number is so low.
State-by-State Crossover Voting Analysis:
Here is a state-by-state breakdown of primary crossover voting and its effect on the outcome of the race. For each state, I list the percentage and raw number of crossover voters in both parties. Where possible, I list the percentage and raw number of crossover Republicans and Democrats voting for Clinton and Obama. I note the margin of victory as a percentage and raw number of votes, and then I draw conclusions about the effect of crossover voting in the state.
Alabama
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 564,016 Republican votes, or 22,561 votes cast
Democratic primary: 5% Republican crossover out of 539,925 Democratic votes, or 26,996 votes; Clinton won 52% of the 26,996 Republican votes, or 14,038 votes;
Obama won 45% of the 26,996 Republican votes, or 12,148 votes
Obama’s overall margin of victory: 56% to 42%, or 76,310 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not the deciding factor for Obama’s victory: he won by 76,310 votes, but Clinton got 1,890 more Republican votes than Obama did; in raw numbers, 4,435 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines.
Arizona
Republican primary: 2% Democratic crossover out of 525,257 Republican votes, or 10,505 votes cast
Democratic primary: 2% Republican crossover out of 443,426 Democratic votes, or 8,869 votes cast;
Arizona Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s overall margin of victory: 51% to 42%, or 36,477 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not the deciding factor for Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 36,477 votes, and a total of 8,869 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 1,636 more Democrats than Republicans crossed party lines.
Arkansas
Republican primary: 9% Democratic crossover out of 224,581 Republican votes, or 20,212 votes cast
Democratic primary: 4% Republican crossover out of 307,318 Democratic votes, or 12,293 votes; Arkansas Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s overall margin of victory: 70% to 26%, or 136,539 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not the deciding factor for Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 136,539 votes, and a total of 12,293 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 7,919 more Democrats than Republicans crossed party lines.
California
Republican primary: 3% Democratic crossover out of 2,514,047 Republican votes, or 75,421 votes
Democratic primary: 3% Republican crossover out of 4,375,496 Democratic votes, or 131,265 votes;
California Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s overall margin of victory: 52% to 43%, or 416,335 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not the deciding factor in Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 416,335 votes, and a total of 131,265 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 55,844 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines.
Connecticut
Republican primary: 2% Democratic crossover out of 150,159 Republican votes, or 3,003 votes cast
Democratic primary: 2% Republican crossover out of 350,595 Democratic votes, or 7,012 votes cast;
Connecticut Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Obama’s margin of victory: 51% to 47%, or 14,518 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory, even if he won them all; Obama won by 14,518 votes, and a total of 7,012 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 4,009 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Delaware
Republican primary: no exit polling data available
Democratic primary: 1% Republican crossover out of 95,979 Democratic votes, or 960 votes cast;
Delaware Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Obama’s margin of victory: 53% to 43%, or 10,373 votes
Conclusion: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory, even if he won them all; Obama won by 10,373 votes, and a total of 960 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans
Florida
Republican primary: 3% Democratic crossover out of 1,920,350 Republican votes, or 57,610 votes
Democratic primary: 4% Republican crossover out of 1,684,390 Democratic votes, or 67,376 votes;
Clinton won 23% of the 67,376 Republican votes, or 15,496 votes;
Obama won 27% of the 67,376 Republican votes, or 18,192 votes
Clinton’s margin of victory: 50% to 33%, or 288,167 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Clinton’s victory; Clinton won by 288,167 votes, and Obama won 2,695 more Republican votes than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 9,766 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Georgia
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 954,462 Republican votes, or 31,178 votes cast
Democratic primary: 4% Republican crossover out of 1,046,485 Democratic votes, or 41,859 votes;
Georgia Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Obama margin of victory: 67% to 31%, or 372,237 votes
Conclusion: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory, even if he won them all; Obama won by 372,237 votes, and a total of 41,859 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 10,681 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Illinois
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 885,009 Republican votes, or 35,400 votes cast
Democratic primary: 6% Republican crossover out of 2,003,800 Democratic votes, or 120,228 votes;
Clinton won 36% of the 120,228 Republican votes, or 43,282 votes;
Obama won 60% of the 120,228 Republican votes, or 72,137 votes
Obama’s overall margin of victory: 65% to 33%, or 639,109 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory; Obama won by 639,109 votes, and he won just 28,855 more votes cast by Republicans than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 84,828 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Louisiana
Republican primary: 2% Democratic crossover out of 156,101 Republican votes, or 3,122 votes cast
Democratic primary: 5% Republican crossover out of 357,547 Democratic votes, or 17,877 votes;
Clinton won 17% of the 17,877 Republican votes, or 3,039 votes;
Obama won 53% of the 17,877 Republican votes, or 9,475 votes
Obama’s overall margin of victory: 57% to 36%, or 83,629 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory; Obama won by 83,629 votes, and he won just 6,436 more votes cast by Republicans than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 14,755 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Maryland
Republican primary: 3% Democratic crossover out of 286,843 Republican votes, or 8,605 votes cast
Democratic primary: 3% Republican crossover out of 760,314 Democratic votes, or 22,809 votes;
Maryland Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Obama’s margin of victory: 60% to 37%, or 179,034 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory, even if he won them all; Obama won by 179,034 votes, and a total of 22,809 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 14,204 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Massachusetts
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 496,171 Republican votes, or 19,847 votes cast
Democratic primary: 2% Republican crossover out of 1,244,133 Democratic votes, or 24,883 votes;
Massachusetts Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s margin of victory: 56% to 41%, or 192,704 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 192,704 votes, and a total of 24,883 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 5,036 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Missouri
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 584,618 Republican votes, or 23,385 votes cast
Democratic primary: 6% Republican crossover out of 820,453 Democratic votes, or 49,227 votes;
Clinton won 21% of the 49,227 Republican votes, or 10,338 votes;
Obama won 75% of the 49,227 Republican votes, or 36,920 votes
Obama’s margin of victory: 49% to 48%, or 9,997 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were the deciding factor in Obama’s victory; he received 36,920 votes from Republicans and won the state by 9,997 votes; Obama won 26,582 more Republican votes than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 25,842 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
New Jersey
Republican primary: 5% Democratic crossover out of 556,855 Republican votes, or 27,843 votes cast
Democratic primary: 3% Republican crossover out of 1,109,369 Democratic votes, or 33,281 votes;
New Jersey Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s margin of victory: 54% to 44%, or 110,390 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 110,390 votes, and a total of 33,281 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 5,438 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
New Mexico
Republican primary: scheduled for June 3
Democratic primary: 2% Republican crossover out of 148,404 Democratic votes, or 2,968 votes cast;
New Mexico Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s margin of victory: 49% to 48%, or 1,709 votes
Conclusion: Republicans may have been the deciding factor in Clinton’s victory; her margin of victory was 1,709 votes and there were a total of 2,968 votes cast by Republicans in the Democratic primary, but it is unknown how those votes break down by candidate
New York
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 602,747 Republican votes, or 24,110 votes cast
Democratic primary: 1% Republican crossover out of 1,721,262 Democratic votes, or 17,213 votes;
New York Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s margin of victory: 57% to 40%, or 305,709 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 305,709 votes, and a total of 17,213 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 6,897 more Democrats than Republicans crossed party lines
Oklahoma
Republican primary: 1% Democratic crossover out of 329,843 Republican votes, or 3,298 votes cast
Democratic primary: 7% Republican crossover out of 401,230 Democratic votes, or 28,086 votes; Oklahoma Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s margin of victory: 55% to 31%, or 98,338 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 98,338 votes, and a total of 28,086 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 24,788 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
South Carolina
Republican primary: 2% Democratic crossover out of 442,918 Republican votes, or 8,858 votes cast
Democratic primary: 4% Republican crossover out of 530,322 Democratic votes, or 21,213 votes;
Clinton won 20% of the 21,213 Republican votes, or 4,243 votes;
Obama won 37% of the 21,213 Republican votes, or 7,849 votes
Obama’s margin of victory: 55% to 27%, or 153,963 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory; Obama won by 153,963 votes, and he won just 3,606 more votes cast by Republicans than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 12,355 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Tennessee
Republican primary: 4% Democratic crossover out of 547,614 Republican votes, or 21,905 votes cast
Democratic primary: 3% Republican crossover out of 614,096 Democratic votes, or 18,423 votes;
Tennessee Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Clinton’s margin of victory: 54% to 41%, or 81,869 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Clinton’s victory, even if she won them all; Clinton won by 81,869 votes, and a total of 18,423 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 3,482 more Democrats than Republicans crossed party lines
Utah
Republican primary: 2% Democratic crossover out of 283,759 Republican votes, or 5,675 votes cast
Democratic primary: 5% Republican crossover out of 122,617 Democratic votes, or 6,131 votes cast;
Tennessee Republican votes were not broken down by Clinton v. Obama
Obama’s margin of victory: 57% to 39%, or 21,654 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory, even if he won them all; Obama won by 21,654 votes, and a total of 6,131 Democratic votes were cast by Republicans; in raw numbers, 456 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Virginia
Republican primary: 3% Democratic crossover out of 481,980 Republican votes, or 14,459 votes cast
Democratic primary: 7% Republican crossover out of 970,393 Democratic votes, or 67,928 votes; Clinton won 23% of the 67,928 Republican votes, or 15,623 votes;
Obama won 72% of the 67,928 Republican votes, or 48,908 votes
Obama’s margin of victory: 64% to 35%, or 275,889 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory; Obama won by 275,889 votes, and he won just 33,285 more votes cast by Republicans than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 53,469 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Wisconsin
Republican primary: 5% Democratic crossover out of 403,568 Republican votes, or 20,178 votes cast
Democratic primary: 9% Republican crossover out of 1,099,661 Democratic votes, or 98,969 votes;
Clinton won 28% of the 98,969 Republican votes, or 27,711 votes;
Obama won 72% of the 98,969 Republican votes, or 71,258 votes
Obama’s margin of victory: 58% to 41%, or 193,212 votes
Conclusions: Republicans were not deciding factor in Obama’s victory; Obama won by 193,212 votes, and he won just 43,547 more votes cast by Republicans than Clinton did; in raw numbers, 78,791 more Republicans than Democrats crossed party lines
Final thoughts and notes:
- My goal in the above analysis was to show that it is not a Republican surge that is helping Obama. I did not analyze the much larger numbers of "independent" voters who participated in the Democratic primaries. It's common knowledge that these voters also break for Obama, and that Clinton is in fact leading in the popular vote among self-declared Democrats. Personally, I'm not bothered by this at all, given that only 37% of Americans self-identify as Democrats, and many voters simply do not want to publicly register or identify with a particular party.
- I also did not examine the differences between "open primaries," "semi-closed primaries," and "closed primaries" and how this may have affected Republican crossover.
- Finally, I did not try to guess whether, or how, the numbers of Republican voters participating in the Democratic primary may have affected the delegate count in individual states. I'll leave these analyses up to all of you!
- I tried to be as thorough as I could and use the best data and logic I could. If anyone has any advice or better data, I'd appreciate a comment telling me about it. My goal was to bury this myth that somewhere, possibly inside a volcano, Karl Rove is rubbing his hands together with glee at the thought that his Master Plan is succeeding. I think I've done that, and I welcome your suggestions as to how I can make this argument even better.
- Shoutout to cavebird, who notes that the high number of Wisconsin crossover votes can be explained by the fact that the Republican race was basically sewn up by the date of that primary.
- Shoutout to frisco, who asked for a comparison of the number of Republican crossover voters with the number of Republican primary voters. When you add up all the Republican primary votes in the states I analyze, you get a total of 12,910,898 votes. Subtract the 437,225 Democrats who voted in those primaries, and you get 12,473,673 Republicans and Independents voting in the Republican primaries in the states I analyze. Meanwhile, 825,926 Republicans have voted in this year’s Democratic primaries in the states I analyze. That's equivalent to about 6.6% of the number of Republicans and Independents voting in the Republican primaries.