Rasmussen has a poll released today that is truly an eye-opener. In the Democratic stronghold state of New Jersey, Hillary crushes McCain but it is a toss up between McCain and Obama:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Clinton 50
McCain 39
McCain 45
Obama 43
In New Jersey, Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain in an early look at the race for the Garden State’s 15 Electoral College votes...Clinton leads by twenty-one points among women but trails by two among men...However, if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, the race in New Jersey will begin as a toss-up...McCain leads by twelve among men while Obama has a five point edge among women. This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another)...McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats...Four years ago, John Kerry won New Jersey by seven percentage points. In Election 2000, Al Gore carried the state handily and defeated George W. Bush 56% to 40%
Analysis? Obama does not have a strong appeal to core Democrats, like Hillary does. McCain is able to cut into the so-called Reagan Democrats who came home to vote for Bill Clinton but are unsure about Obama when compared with McCain. Other possibilities related to Obama not getting enough of the female vote that Democratic candidates rely on in a general election.
Perhaps this is one of the dangers we face in having a nominating process where crossover (non-Democrats) voting in our primaries and caucuses can give us a nominee who can't hold enough Democratic support in a general election.