Ohio
52-47 Obama win
Texas
56-42 Obama win
Vermont
65-35 maybe as high as 70-30 Obama win
Rhode Island
50-49 Clinton win
I think that with results similar to this it will be hard for Hillary to stay in the race. That being said, it does come with some caveats...
Texas will break big for Obama, anyone watching the polls or the turnout can see that, I would guess this one gets called as soon as the polls close. Turnout is up more than 600 percent over 2004, and when we see number like that it means Obama has mobilized his supporters.
Ohio, could be a little closer, but Obama has been selling NAFTA big time there, and that will hurt Clinton. SEIU has been out in force for a couple weeks and has spent somewhere around 2.6M compared to AFSCME and EMILYs list for Clinton which has only spent 400K.
It has been argued that a good part of the reason she won in NJ, CA, and NH was these two groups. They helped GOTV (get out the vote) to the women of these areas. This time they have counter pressure from SEIU, and in a state with one of the worst economies in the nation, women care more about who can fix it than emotion. As the Clinton campaign stated in 1992 "It's the economy stupid".
Vermont, only a couple polls in the last month, but both had Obama up more than 15 points (according to RCP). I don't know about you, but I am going to guess that he hasn't done anything to lose such a lead.
Rhode Island, is another institutional democrat state much like NY, NJ, and NH...but not NM (ha!). And as such is a Clinton base state, but even it has problems for her. Patrick Kennedy (RI-01) has endorsed Obama. Obama showed up once, on Saturday, to a crowd of 5,000 with just as many turned away. Bad News.
One thing that I didn't not take into account is the party coalescing around Obama in response to McCain's anointment. Obama now lead in national polls by 6-10 points depending on who you believe. Obama leads every demographic group except women over 40. More bad news.
On top of this Hillary has not gotten good press (outside of this morning's morning Joe), but she did well on SNL this weekend. Her "Children" ad was a flop, her 10M PAC never materialized, and Bill said he was the one running once.
I would like to say that Hillary will bow out sometime on Wednesday or Thursday, but she may spin a 1-4 showing and try to hold out for an Obama scandal before the convention. If she goes O for 4 she is out, no question. On the 8th is Wyoming, which because of the libertarian streak in the West will break 3-1 Obama, when on 11th is Mississippi, which has a large black population, and I don't she her getting those votes.
That would mean it will have been two and a half month between Pennsylvania and her last win on Super Tuesday. Either way expect to see superdelegates leaving at a rate of about 5-10 a week for Hillary and undecided supers joining Obama at the same rate for a net Obama gain of 10-20 a week.
Got different thoughts?