The basis of the title of this diary is that the only way Senator Clinton wins the nomination if she doesn't win big on Tuesday is if Obama is not in the race anymore. In other words the only sane reason for staying in the race is to treat it essentially as a lottery ticket. Is that expectation realistic, though? Consider - given how negative she has gone against Obama how realistic is it that his delegates would vote for her? How likely is the Democratic party to coalesce enthusiastically behind her? I ask you to consider these things because they are things that the super delegates will have to consider as well. If you were a super delegate and you were faced with the choice of Hillary Clinton or someone else who might be better able to unite the party what do you choose to do? Here's my guess - even if Barack Obama is somehow gone from the race, you go into a smoke filled room with somebody who will have a powerful sway with Obama's delegates (whether that's Obama himself or his wife, Michelle) and you pick a compromise candidate who will be able to unite the party going in to November.
Point being, I see Hillary as having very little chance of winning this if it goes to a brokered convention precisely because of the kitchen sink strategy she has employed. The only question is, who would the compromise candidate be?
The compromise candidates primarily look like former presidential candidates, with a couple exceptions. They are:
- Michelle Obama: Somewhat risky because she hasn't run for office herself, but she's still a powerful woman and there are those for whom she would be the only acceptible candidate among the options I present because otherwise a lot of our base voters would be bitterly disappointed if the convention said, "Surprise! You thought you'd get a woman or a minority candidate, but you'll get neither." Her viability also depends on whether Obama's exit from the race is driven by a major scandal or not
- Al Gore: A somewhat safe choice because he is viewed with fond memories by the members of the party and is somewhat of a media golden boy now. There is still the problem that he has a bad track record as a campaigner and, frankly, doesn't seem all that interested in another run.
- John Edwards: A natural choice given the fact that he already has delegates and has technically only "suspended" his campaign. The only big downsides I can see are that he's a white guy.
- Chris Dodd: Left the race earlier than Edwards, and Obama's surrogate may be inclined to reward his comparatively rapid endorsement with a nod. That is also a strike against him, however, because Hillary's supporters may deem him unacceptable for that very same reason.
- Outsider Governor: The party goes with someone who seems to come completely out of left field (think like Truman becoming FDR's VP) for the simple reason that nobody can object to them as strenuously as the above candidates. Possibilities include Kathleen Sibelius, Mark Warner, etc.
Frankly, I'm thinking that John Edwards has the second best shot at the nomination right now, if only because he's the only candidate above who has some semblance of a campaign ready to go. I don't know who I'd rank after that, or even that I would really rank Hillary after all of the above. Of course if things get this far it gets really hard to make any concrete predictions because Hillary may try to hold the party hostage - imagine her screaming (behind closed doors, of course), "I'm going to go Strom Thurmond on your @sses if you don't give me the nomination! I will not allow the Democratic party to put anyone else in the Whitehouse but me." I have a hard time imagining the jello-spined elected Democrats standing up to her without some driving force that convinces them that they're better off calling her bluff... I can't be 100% sure she'd go that nuclear, either. It says a lot, frankly, that it it is even conceivable now that she would. If you'd have proposed such a scenario to me a couple of months ago, I would have laughed in your face and called you a troll.
Edit: to remove some phrasing that seemed to make some uncomfortable.