Quick note to all Obama supporters and progressive activists wringing our hands after the latest election: we are still ahead by every single measure in this race (with the exception of superdelegates who are quickly moving in the right direction.)
The most states and territories:
Clinton: OH, TX, RI, AZ, AR, CA, MA, NY, NJ, NM, OK, TN, NH, NV, American Samoa
Obama: VT, WA, WI, HI, DC, MD, VA, ME, KS, LA, NE, AL, AK, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, MN, MO, ND, UT, SC, IA, Virgin Islands, Americans Abroad
Clinton has won 15 contests; Obama has won 27. That's a twelve contest lead.
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The advantage in states that remain:
Likely winners of the next 12 contests (unless something changes drastically) lean Obama's way by a count of 7 to 5:
Obama: WY, MS, IN, NC, OR, MT, SD
Clinton: PA, Guam (?), WV, KY, Puerto Rico (?)
In this area, Obama's victories are more certain than Clinton's: Guam is just a guess on my part, and Puerto Rico's governor has endorsed Obama, using the power of the Puerto Rico machine with him, and the dynamics of states like Kentucky and West Virginia may well have changed in Obama's favor since Super Tuesday.
If these results hold, Obama will have won 34 contests to Clinton's 20 by the time this is all over through Puerto Rico.
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The most pledged delegates:
With the caveat that the TX caucus results (which will help Obama by the time it's all over) still have not come through, the pledged delegate count is:
Obama: 1155
Clinton: 1021.5
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The most delegates with superdelegates included:
After counting in confirmed superdelegates, the total count is:
Obama: 1311.5
Clinton: 1211
This lead will increase as superdelegates continue to move Obama's way, in spite of her narrow win in the Texas primary.
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A nearly insurmountable popular vote lead. From Chuck Todd's First Read:
The popular vote: On this front, Clinton also made huge inroads here. In the states that have awarded delegates, Obama's popular vote lead dropped two points to 49%-47%: He's won 12,920,961 votes to Clinton's 12,322,695 votes out of more than 26 million cast. Toss in Florida and Obama's nearly 600,000 vote lead is cut to 300,000: 13,497,175 to Clinton's 13,193,681. Finally, if you count Clinton's vote haul from Michigan -- where she was the only major Dem on the ballot -- she actually overtakes Obama by a slim 30,000 votes, 13,521,832 to Obama's 13,491,175.
This looks at first glance like good news for Clinton--but it's not. Without MI and FL, she trails by over 600,000 votes--with most of the big states already out of the way. With Obama likely to win 7 out of the next 12 contests (and by larger margins than Clinton's likely victories), the national popular vote throughout the remaining contests is likely to be a wash.
As for MI and FL, Obama could easily maintain his popular vote lead even counting the unsanctioned beauty contests that took place earlier--not that they will be counted. And the results of a re-vote (which I encourage) would look nothing like the earlier results: Michigan would be close, and Florida would be much closer than it was. They almost certainly won't be enough to overturn Obama's popular vote lead.
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Better electability:
According to the average of head-to-head polls over at the admittedly conservative but very useful RealClearPolitics site, Obama does better than Clinton against John McCain. Obama beats McCain nationally by an average of 4.2% across all polls, while McCain beats Clinton by an average of 0.2% across all polls. Yes, it's very early, and yes, these things change--but without a crystal ball, it's all we have to go on so far.
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The money race:
According to the New York Times, Obama has raised $140.6 million to Clinton's $138 million--but the closeness of those numbers is deceiving. Clinton's campaign has spent almost all of that $138 million wastefully under the leadership of Patti Solis Doyle; and while Clinton's recent discovery of the Internet as a fundraising tool (who knew?) combined with Solis Doyle's departure means reduced money woes for the Clinton camp, their main donors have already maxed out their contributions. Obama's supporters, meanwhile, still have much more to give--and have shown a willingness to pony up when the push comes to shove.
Also, watch for Obama's February fundraising numbers to once again outstrip Clinton's when the Obama camp chooses to release them.
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So here's what we're looking at: the Clinton camp will rightfully argue that neither candidate will be able to lock up the nomination without using superdelegates. They will use this argument to bolster their contention that they have every right to use superdelegates to overturn Obama's pledged delegate lead and steal the nomination. But the simple facts are these:
- Obama has won the most states and territories (27-15)
- Obama will likely increase his state-by-state lead to 34-20
- Obama has the most pledged delegates
- Obama will have the most pledged delegates even if the race goes all the way through Puerto Rico, and Michigan and Florida revote
- Obama has the lead in overall delegates when including currently committed superdelegates
- Obama leads in the national popular vote
- Obama's lead in the national popular vote is unlikely to be washed away, even if Michigan and Florida revote--and perhaps even if their unsanctioned contests are counted
- Obama does better than Clinton against McCain in general election polls
- Obama has raised more money, and has greater potential to raise more as the race goes on
Unless something changes drastically going forward (and Obama's upcoming Wyoming and Mississippi victories, combined with the release of his February fundraising numbers, will certainly help give him the media cycle over the coming two weeks), there is simply no credible argument for the Clinton camp to persuade superdelegates to overturn what is quite clearly the will of the voters to let Barack Obama's vision for the future compete with John McCain's appeal to the past.