I want to look at this nomination through the eyes of my congressional neighbor to the West, Rep. Nancy Boyda (KS-2nd). You may remember her from the front page as one of the good guys in the FISA fight. No easy task in a state as typically red as Kansas, heck it's even home to the Big Red One. That much military always keeps security at the fore.
Admittedly there is a lot more Democrats in high places right now than you'd normally expect, but she's in for a tough fight this fall and I really think having Sen. Clinton at the top of the ticket would destroy her chances.
First and most importantly, having Sen. Clinton at the head of the ticket means she's in control of the party apparatus. Now, the turnaround may not be immediate (and please someone correct me if I'm way out of line here), but she will have sway in how the party concentrates its efforts and money. Her fifty + 1 strategy will leave the whole state out in the cold, and Rep. Boyda to virtually fend for herself. Based on his campaign so far I would trust Sen. Obama to attack the national field with a fifty state approach similar and as an extension of Howard Dean's style, and we saw how a little national help paid big dividends last time.
Secondly, its a targeted district. I don't have a link and am pulling this from memory and flat-out common sense, if someone wishes to challenge me I'll try to find proof. She narrowly won last time in an election that surprised everybody; in fact, I did not talk to anyone outside her campaign who thought she stood a chance, even up to election day. The GOP has to expect the second district to be an easy pick up and, though they have limited resources, will make a concentrated effort to win it, especially given my next point... her opponents.
Fmr. Rep. Jim Ryun lost to Rep. Boyda last time, again, by a narrow margin and began running to win back his seat the very day, And, though he lost last time, Ryun beat her in 2004, so there is precedent for his ability to beat her. But Ryun's not alone there's also State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins taking a shot at the Republican bid to beat Rep. Boyda. She is pretty well-respected in the state and already has an established name and electoral victories, at least at the state level, under her belt. Word around the water cooler last year when all this was panning out was that the Republicans were really encouraging her to take this shot, so she will run with the full support of the party and is the person they expect to outperform the man who has beat Rep. Boyda once and only narrowly lost last time.
Finally, this state overwhelmingly went toward Sen. Obama on Super Tuesday. Now, someone could claim that his showing was due to a combination of the Senator's strength in caucuses and the fact Kansas doesn't count, according to the distinguished lady from New York. But, taking it as a genuine show of excitement for Sen. Obama, having him at the top of the ticket would drive more Democrats to the polls, especially since both Kansas State and half of Lawrence (where KU is) are in her district. Having the candidate who has been consistently received nation-wide support college students and college-educated professionals throughout the primary season at the top of the ticket would mean more of them would probably be more likely to go vote, and then hopefully check the box next to Rep. Boyda's name.
Conversely, having Sen. Clinton at the top rallies all the steadfast Republicans, who are demoralized and in relative tatters, and gets them out to vote for Sen. McCain, or more to the point against her. Now, I don't know for sure that her being at the head of the ticket will lower turnout on the Democratic side, I'm just guessing, but I do expect having super-delegates overturn the decision and pick her will disenchant people.
Now, I picked Rep. Boyda because I know her plight best, but I also know there are many other similar instances elsewhere, especially in red states, who will be ignored and stand to lose if a Clinton-McAuliffe national campaign is restored.