I have been urging more Mandarin and study abroad programs in Oregon's public schools and universities since the summer of 2006. This is the latest in a series of regular emails to all 90 Oregon legislators. This was is titled:
"The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years."
Dear Senator / Representative,
I again urge the Oregon Legislature to hold hearings on economic growth and change in Asia and the need for more Mandarin and study abroad in China programs in the Oregon K-16 public education system. With the potential that China’s economy could become 2-3 times as large as the US economy during the lifetimes of today’s students, there are strong economic development reasons to increase the number of Oregon students studying Mandarin. But, beyond economics, there are even stronger national security reasons for more of our next generations to learn Mandarin and spend time in China. China as a rising economic power will also be a rising military power. This will be the most fundamental and significant issue for our next generations: Can they find a way to live peacefully with a more militarily powerful China, or will there be war? Some in the US assume war to be inevitable. My argument to you and your fellow legislators is that we need to give them every chance possible to find a peaceful path, and to be prepared if war does come. The stakes could not be higher, so this should be a top legislative priority. What we can do to help them is to teach many more of them Mandarin (and teach it to fluency) and send many more of them to study in China. Our failure could lead to their catastrophe.
The Department of Defense recently issued its annual report to Congress titled "Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (2008)." It does raise issues of alarm. I predict that, as China grows economically, the annual report will raise additional alarms as China has the economic basis to modernize and expand it military further. Our next generations will face a much more militarily powerful China. Can they avoid war? James Fallows, commenting on those who see war with China as inevitable, writes "compared with a confrontation with Iraq or Iran, a military showdown with China would be 10 times as unnecessary and 100 times as stupid." Should not our next generations be as informed as possible as they face this issue?
Please think about a China rising militarily and what we in Oregon can do to give peace its best chances. Please consider as you do this thinking the Executive Summary of the 2008 report to Congress on "Military Power of the People’s Republic of China:"
"China’s rapid rise over recent years as a regional political and economic power with growing global influence is an important element in today’s strategic landscape, one that has significant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China. No country has done more to assist, facilitate, and encourage China’s national development and its integration in the international system. The United States continues to encourage China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the stability, resilience and growth of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, in particular in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used.
"The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short duration, high intensity conflicts along its periphery against high-tech adversaries – an approach that China refers to as preparing for "local wars under conditions of informatization." China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited but, as noted in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it "has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages."
"China’s near-term focus on preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, is an important driver of its modernization. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other contingencies, such as conflict over resources or disputed territories.
"The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s expanding and improving military capabilities are changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region.
"China’s nuclear force modernization, as evidence by the fielding of the new DF 31 and DF-31A intercontinental-range missiles, is enhancing China’s strategic strike capabilities. China’s emergent anti-access/area denial capabilities – as exemplified by its continued development of advanced cruise missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to strike ships at sea, including aircraft carriers, and the January 2007 successful test of a direct ascent, anti-satellite weapon – are expanding from the land, air, and sea dimensions of the traditional battlefield into the space and cyber-space domains.
"The international community has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision-making, and key capabilities supporting China’s military modernization. China’s leaders have yet to explain in detail the purposes and objectives of the PLA’s modernizing military capabilities. For example, China continues to promulgate incomplete defense expenditure figures, and engage in actions that appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies. The lack of transparency in China’s military and security affairs poses risks to stability by increasing the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation. This situation will naturally and understandably lead to hedging against the unknown.
Again, please hold hearings on economic growth and change in Asia. Oregon has academic and business experts that could brief you on current happenings and future trends. And, perhaps, the Defense Department (or the Oregon Military Department) could testify as well.
Recall that I recently quoted Ambassador Alan Homer speaking before the Portland City Club. He said:
"Consider two different visions of the US – China relationship. The first is a vision that is dark and problematic. It is a future of a superpower and a rising superpower on a collision course, increasingly suspicious of the others intentions, scrambling in a zero sum competition for resources and influence, oblivious to the possibilities of mutual interests. It is a future in which we see each other through charactatures. This relationship is fragile and can be cracked easily by misunderstanding and accident. That is one vision.
"The second vision is one that is far more hopeful and optimistic. It is one in which our ability to work together matches the degree to which our economies are already so deeply integrated. In this future we see leadership of each of our countries communicating well, growing in trust, working through misunderstanding and crises, and expanding all possible common interests, while recognizing distinct national goals. In this vision, I also see people in each nation that recognize our commonalities: that we mutually benefit from trade, investment, and exchange of people and ideas.
Let us work in the Oregon Legislature for the second vision. You have responsibility for the educational system in Oregon. You can make changes.
Thank – Dave Porter
PS. The full Department of Defense report can be found here.
James Fallows’ comments can be found here.
PPS: An interview with me by Ednews about my testimony before the Oregon Senate Committee on Education and General Government can be found here.
PPPS: There is a new documentary movie title "Two Million Minutes" that compares high school education in the US, India and China. Info and a trailer are available at here. Or a longer eSNTV youtube here.