Now that the ground has settled since March 4th primaries and caucus, I just wanted to take a moment to take stock of this past week’s battle for delegates. The delegate count tends to be the case that the candidate with the most, pledged or super seem to focus on to support their superiority in the race. I will try to cover some of the less quantitative portions of this primary election in another blog. But if Diebold ever taught us anything is that the numbers really don’t matter in election.
Honestly, after the close of Tuesday’s primaries I was disappointed with the results. I was not alone between the army of Illinois Senator’s supporters, as well as likely many of the DNC’s governing body in hoping for a quick resolution. Senator Hillary Clinton managed to win two state primaries and eek out a win in Texas’s primary. I was hoping for more of a knock out punch from Barack Obama.
Major news sources and political pundits were deeming her once again the "comeback kid!" After a couple days of waiting for the actual news to sink in, I wish to enlighten others regarding the New York Senator’s massive Tuesday victory. Some might call the following spin, I consider it perspective.
Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in Rhode Island by similar margins as he beat her in Vermont to fulfill most everyone’s expectations. That was her largest win since February 5th and barely beat the smallest margin of victory to Barack Obama’s string of eleven victories. Ohio was a big win for Hillary Clinton, winning by ten points, half of the lead she began with two weeks prior.
Texas was a split decisions with Hillary Clinton winning a close primary and Barack Obama (to current figures) handing her one of his typical lopsided caucus victories. While caucuses in red states do not count to the Clinton campaign, it certainly counts for all those who had participated including those who Texas two-stepped for her candidacy. The delegates from Barack Obama’s caucus win more than made up for the delegates from her narrow primary win giving him more delegates from these two contests to win Texas.
To be on track to catch up with Barack Obama’s pledged delegate lead, she needed to keep a pace of fifteen point wins starting with the March 4th contests. According to most news agencies, the New York Senator netted between 6 and 12 delegates on Tuesday, at most three percent of the 370 up for grabs that day. This makes the uphill climb for delegates even more difficult in the remaining contests.
It has not helped her that the certification of California’s primary netted Barack Obama eight more delegates than originally calculated. Nor has the constant stream of superdelegates pledging their support since Tuesday (ten, I believe). The opportunity for her to win using the support of elected and appointed officials decreases as more pledge their support for the upstart Barack Obama, especially so when they were former Clinton campaign supporters.
She has to win the remaining twelve contests by an average of twenty four points which is not impossible considering that Barack Obama’s average margin of victory during the earlier eleven contest win streak was over thirty six points. Let’s hope Wyoming continues Senator Clinton’s momentum toward victory.