A diary aimed at the coldly analytical among us, the members of a website ostensibly dedicated to the election of Democrats. At no point do I mean to praise, impugn, malign, nor endorse any candidate or supporter. My person is on hold, campaign-wise, and I am going to vote for the person who I deem most likely to win based on the hard numbers alone, as long as there is a (D) after their name.
When it all boils down, a Democrat in office is better than a Republican. Even if some policies might not change much, most will improve dramatically. And Dems do respond to pressure from us. Imperial Repubs respond not at all to the electorate, us or otherwise. There are vast differences even if some don’t see them all.
More Below the fold.
Really, we all need clean air and water.
We all would like for real science to be taught in schools.
We all love National Parks and natural areas.
We all want rational energy policies.
We all want reality-based research to be restored.
We all want qualified appointees, not industry cheerleaders.
We all want real regulated corporations, not corporate regulation of the people.
We all want the right to control our our own bodies.
We all value the rights enumerated in the Constitution.
We all want a sane foreign policy, to see our reputation in the world repaired. Maybe even improved.
We all want to start the process of returning the government to the people to begin
Any Dem is going to work harder in policy areas such as these than any Rep.
I would like for specific policy (as voiced by the candidates) to be a part of this dialogue only as it might reflect public opinion and therefore voting trend potential. For example: How might a Pro-Choice Policy vs. a Protect America Policy influence the outcome in November in a red state given that the majority of Americans support a Woman’s Right to control her own body?
How will this dynamic play out when we factor in Gay Rights, Access to Health Care, Immigration, Civil Rights, Equal Employee Rights and other issues in any given red state?
After reading all (or a lot of) the candidate diaries, I've begun to wonder about several rather large details concerning how Primary wins translate into votes in the General Election.
That said, Riddle Me This:
I. What does a win in a caucus state really mean?
The mechanism to achieve the win seems to be:
- Get a good ground game in place.
- Motivate your supporters to get the word out.
- Have a platform people can support.
- Make sure your people show up at the caucus venue and speak their mind.
- Count the votes. Hold a press conference.
If you have a tight organization, you win. But does this indicate popular support?
Consider -
If X has 1000 fans and most of them show up, X beats Y even if Y has 2000 fans but they cannot get to the venue because: transportation is difficult, they work and cannot get the time off, Y's organization is under-funded or not as "together", or any number of other reasons. Is this really a valuable indicator of actual support or is it a sign of a better, more dedicated core group of workers?
Consider -
An open versus closed caucus:
How much credence can we place on an "open" caucus result that might be gamed by the Republicans? Is there a way to know and is there a way to evaluate an outcome in November?
Does a win in a "closed" caucus, while earning delegates to the National Convention and helping to secure the nomination, carry the same enthusiasm potential in the General Election if the state is traditionally bright red?
II. Voting at the Polling Place.
The mechanism:
1,2, and 3. Pretty much the same as above. Duh. (Directed at me.)
- Motivate the entire population to get to the polls, individually.
- Count, etc.
And the same "open versus closed" considerations apply.
Plus:
Can we place more importance on this type of result (with respect to voting potential in November) than the result of a caucus win because the voters are acting on personal motivation as opposed to group pressure?
Usually, the voters in a Primary represent the activists within the party. I have seen the activist core nominate their perfect darling only to see a massacre in November more than once. (I voted for McGovern at the county, state, and national levels. And I live in North Carolina, the home of Jesse Helms. So I got street cred on this subject.) Can we assume that our nominee will receive the same degree of support from the party members in general that they receive now?
In red and purple states, how do we evaluate the relative percentage of each party’s turnout?
Does a higher turnout for one party mean that the other is apathetic and not likely to vote in the General or does it mean that the other party is going to vote for whoever gets nominated, no matter, and sees no need to participate in the Primary?
Does a crossover vote in the primary really indicate a crossover vote in the General? Is there a way to intuit such a thing?
With all the variables in delegate selection, several variables in play at the same time even, how can we come to a decision regarding real popular support in the whole country for any given candidate?
Further -
Many "authorities" are pointing out the relative wonderfulness of the sudden participation of the previously uninvolved "younger" or "new" (or anything) voters. I’m not sure what tells us.
Is it the simply the chance finally to get the Repubs out?
Is it the chance to get involved in the national dialogue, having seen the carnage the myth that "one single vote" doesn’t count got us and that myth be disproved? (See Florida.)
Is it "Cult of Personality" type enthusiasm, which will disappear if the candidate of choice fails to get the nomination?
How many people are "all or nothing" types? How many people are "the longest journey begins with the first step" types and will be OK with a less than ideal nominee in order to get that first step taken?
Are we allowing our group mood to influence our understanding of the mood of the whole country?
Please Remember That This Is Not Intended To Be A Candidate Diary. Please respect that.
So many questions. Do we have factual answers? Can we have answers?