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Okay, it’s not quite the magnitude of tonight’s earth-mover in the IL-14.  But given how Republican this district is, these numbers can’t be doing anything to ease the heartburn the GOP must be feeling this evening.  

Details under the fold:

Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District includes the state capital, and has been in Republican hands since 1975.  For the past 22 years, the seat was held by Richard Baker, who stepped down on February 1 of this year to become President and CEO of the Managed Funds Association, which represents the hedge fund industry.  The $1 million-plus salary and benefits package Baker is set to receive in this job must be looking even better this evening given the fresh reminder of just how dismal things are looking for congressional Republicans.  

But we in the LA-06 also voted today, in a special primary to select the candidates that will face off next month May 3 to fill Baker’s seat.  This was a "closed" primary; however, independents and people registered with parties not recognized in Louisiana were allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, while only registered Republicans could vote on the other side.  

But as we’ve seen so many times during this primary season, if you look at the turnout numbers in this "red" district, it seems possible that Baker’s seat may end up getting  "Fostered" next month in May as well.  

With 70% of precincts reporting, votes for the five Democratic candidates total 32,607.  The four Republican candidates together got 20,020 votes.  
 
On the Democratic side, State Rep. Don Cazayoux of New Roads is leading by a comfortable margin, although he appears headed into an April 5 runoff with Michael Jackson, state representative from Baton Rouge.  With nearly 13,000 votes, Cazayoux alone nets about 65% of the total number of votes cast for all four Republicans combined.  He also bests the likely Republican winner Woody Jenkins by nearly 3,000 votes despite facing one more challenger than Jenkins had.

Baker’s former chief of staff Paul Sawyer looks like he’s getting his clock cleaned by Jenkins, despite Sawyer’s attack ads which tied Jenkins to David Duke.  As of right now, Sawyer is running third behind Jenkins and wingnut Laurinda Calongne, who ran as the anti-illegal immigration candidate while promoting herself as a "God-fearing churchgoer".

This was predicted to be a light turnout election, but even here in this Republican-heavy district, many more Dems than Republicans decided to take time out of this beautiful, cool and sunny day to go to the polls.  After the Republicans recover from their post-IL-14 hangover, they might be waking up with a dull LA-06 headache.

Update: 84% reporting.  Dem vote total:  40,018; Republican: 24,597.  Cazayoux still leads Jackson, but still looks like a runoff.  Jenkins right at 50%, so maybe a runoff there too, which is fine.  Let Woody spend some money fending off Calongne.

Update 2: 94% reporting.  Dem vote total:  44,685; Republican: 28,416.  Cazayoux/Jackson runoff all but certain.  Cazayoux still has almost 2,000 more votes than Republican winner Jenkins, who right now has 50.08%.  Keep your fingers crossed for a Woody/Church Lady runoff so Woody can spend some cash!

Update 3, 100% reporting.  Dem vote total: 47,461; Republican: 29,782, so about 60% more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican.  Cazayoux, with 35% of the vote, is in a runoff with Jackson (27%).  Cazayoux had 1,747 more votes than Republican winner Jenkins; Cazayoux and Jackson combined had nearly twice as many votes as Jenkins.  And Woody Jenkins finishes with 49.86% of the vote, so he's also in a runoff, denying him the advantage he would have had against the Dems with an outright win.  Plus it's kind of sweet that Woody's runoff opponent Laurinda Calongne got little more than half the number of votes he did, so he's forced to waste precious campaign cash responding to pesky attacks from a relatively weak challenger.  But thems the rules!

Originally posted to beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:40 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips (31+ / 0-)

    to buy party hats for us, and Alka-Seltzer for the Republicans, since they blew so much money on the IL-14 they got nothin left to prevent Baker's seat from being Fostered.

    "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

    by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:41:13 PM PST

  •  best of luck! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sagittarius, beabea

    I know the April 5 runoff will take some time and attention from beating Jenkins, but there's still another month until May 3. We in IL-14 are feeling pretty good.

    Every day, more and more states do not count. Today 24 states (plus D.C., V.I., D.A., and the TX caucus) face meaninglessness. You can help!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:42:26 PM PST

    •  Hey, thanks for that. (0+ / 0-)

      As I was writing the diary, I knew I was missing one election in there!  Correction made in diary; thanks again.

      "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

      by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:59:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Old Woody is back? (7+ / 0-)

    Heh. He'd just lost the squeaker to Mary Landrieu when I last lived in Louisiana. Hang Duke around his neck as tight as you can, and take that seat back for the Dems.

    I want to die like my grandfather, peacefully in my sleep, not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    by incertus on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:47:16 PM PST

    •  Some background on the David Duke connection. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beabea

      Tony Perkins from the Family Research Council thrown into the mix as well.

      From a report at Media   Matters

      Furthermore, while managing Republican state representative Louis E. "Woody" Jenkins' 1996 campaign for the U.S. Senate, Perkins paid $82,500 to use former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke's phone bank for Jenkins' run-off election with Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA). Jenkins was later fined $3,000 for "knowingly and willfully fil[ing] false disclosure reports showing Courtney Communications as the vendor." According to a July 24, 2002, Times-Picayune article, Perkins "signed the $82,500 contract for the Duke phone bank," maintained by a company called Impact Mail Ltd., in the fall of 1996, and "said Tuesday that he didn't find out 'the complete Duke connection' until after the 1996 Senate campaign." The article went on to report:

         In 1999, Perkins said he originally didn't know the Impact Mail contract was for the use of Duke's phone bank. When he found out, Perkins said, he and Jenkins decided to route the payments through Courtney Communications, the campaign's media firm, because "politically, we didn't want to be connected with Duke."

         The elections commission ruled that the transaction violated federal elections law because it was never disclosed on Jenkins' campaign finance reports. Instead, three payments of $27,500 each were listed to Courtney Communications from Oct. 7 through Nov. 2, 1996, according to commission documents.

         The Jenkins campaign "knowingly and willfully filed false disclosure reports showing Courtney Communications as the vendor," the elections commission wrote in a settlement that Jenkins signed this year.

         A spokeswoman said the commission voted in executive session in February to fine the Jenkins campaign $82,500, the value of the transaction. But Jenkins said he couldn't afford to pay that, so the fine was dropped to $3,000, she said.

      The article is longer and is a great read. It refreshes this issue quite well and will surely be used to show "Woody" for the crooked Republican he is.

      •  Awesome (0+ / 0-)

        Thank you for that.  

        What a story.  And anything that ties that holier-than-thou hypocrite Tony Perkins to both David Duke and something illegal, is a bonus.

        But amid all the jubilation about the Dem results, it just hit me how many people who live around me voted for the guy with the David Duke connection.  I saw more of Paul Sawyer's "would you want a congressman who gave money to David Duke" ads than any others, and it appears to have actually backfired on Sawyer.  So while we seem to have more (or more energized) Dems here now, we've evidently still got a lot of backward Repubs.  Especially when you consider that the second-place Republican finisher was running hard on the anti-immigrant issue; her ads bordered on racist.

        "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

        by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 10:02:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You know quite well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          beabea

          That the David Duke connection isn't nearly as toxic in the district as it is perceived outside of the district.

          That's a grim and unfortunate truth, but, recall the stink the media made about Mike Foster buying David Duke's phone list? I never picked up any real sense of outrage among the general populace here. The issue is too loose of a connection to foster (pun intended) much reaction.

          Now, get me a photo of Jenkins at a cross-burning, and you'll see voters turn out to beat the guy in droves.

  •  Great diary! (5+ / 0-)

    Thanks for the update...good to hear about the turnout in this tough district...Baker's numbers had been up and down over the years, once winning by only a handful of votes...should be fun...

  •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poliscizac, Tenn Wisc Dem, beabea

    We've got a HUGE opportunity. If we flip two deep red districts before November that will give us tons of momentum. I hope the DCCC puts a healthy 1.5 million or so down on this race. The Republicans can't concede and lose in such a deep red district so they HAVE to spend at least a million defending the seat. They can't afford it. We can. And we might just be able to pick this seat up in the bargain.

    It is the best result possible though. Cazayoux is a very strong canidate. I hope he defends Jackson in the runoff. Jenkins is as bad of a canidate as they could pick. His ties to David Duke will energize the African-American population that makes up a third of the district. Cazayoux can also pick up the moderate southern Dems and then he is going to Washington!

    What a blow that would be to the Republicans. A few might see how the wind is blowing and just decide it would be better to retire once before getting embarrassed at the polls in November.

    •  Do you know if that district.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chigh, Populista

      has picked up increased numbers of AA voters in the Katrina displacement? Those that may have decided to just stay away from N.O. until things get better.

      •  According to a report (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        parakinesis

        from the Louisiana Recovery Authority,

        ...about 30,000 people from the southeastern portion of the state most affected by Katrina have since moved to four Baton Rouge-area parishes. Those parishes comprise the majority of the 6th district.

        I don't have any information about that breaks out specifically with regard to the African-American vote, but the New Orleans area is the Democratic part of this state, relatively speaking.  

        However, others quoted in the above report are skeptical of any "Katrina effect".  It would definitely be interesting to find out how much of these Dem turnouts are the result of demographic changes, and how much is just people being plain old fed up with congressional Republicans.

        "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

        by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:26:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm far from on the ground (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        parakinesis, beabea

        And in fact have never even set foot in Louisiana. Just a observer from Minnesota.

        But my guess is that it probably isn't a huge factor in this election. Although SE's are close. A few thousand votes can swing a election. That would be something to look into.

      •  From what I've seen on the ground... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        parakinesis, beabea

        As I live in the heart of LA-06 and have done some volunteer work for Cazayoux, I haven't seen any sort of 'Katrina effect'. It breaks down something like this:
        The district absorbed something like 65k people after the storm, and something like 35% of those were African American.

        Which, basically, was already identical to the district's demographic profile pre-storm. In other words, LA-06 just got a lot bigger, in all proportions, so that none outweighed any of the others too too substantially.

        But, having said that, the four Dem candidates worked today by getting out their base, and none of those relied heavily on evacuee support.

        Cazayoux mainly netted support from rural and blue-collar Democrats, mainly from the districts north and west of Baton Rouge.

        Decuir won the highly-educated and middle-class African-American vote.

        Jackson won mainly blue-collar AA voters in north Baton Rouge precincts.

        Kopplin won the progressive/liberal vote, with strong showing in Baton Rouge's most liberal neigborhoods.

        None of them aggressively courted Katrina evacuees, as, the evacuees have largely already become a part of the fabric of Baton Rouge, and, after living and working in BR for almost 2 and a half years, have become much less a 'contiguous voting bloc'.

        •  Thank you for this report (0+ / 0-)

          This is an excellent post, in both your details and analysis.  Much appreciated, as is your volunteer work.

          "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

          by beabea on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 02:19:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  What about the Kossack (7+ / 0-)

    Gilda Reed LA-01 in a landslide, trying to take back Lindy Boggs seat.

    505 of 505 precincts reporting

    5,083 30% M. V. "Vinny" Mendoza, D  -  

    11,721 70% Gilda Reed, D

    Run-off on the pug side with the Scalis continual candidate, and Tim Burns. Looks like they will be wasting money just to run against a Kossack.

    Edwards Democrats ActBlue Reed LA-01, Kissell NC-08, Welsh IN-06, Ryan KY-01, Taylor NC-09

    by LaEscapee on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:15:54 PM PST

    •  Scalise is vile (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chigh, Predictor, gildareed

      He was never my rep, but I remember him from his efforts to push the anti-gay marriage amendment back in 2004.  Then he was going to run for something and ended up dropping out.  Guess the gay-bashing didn't turn out to be the fundraising bonanza he was hoping for.

      "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

      by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:30:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gilda Reed & Woody Jenkins - ya, dat be cool (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pam from Calif, chigh, gildareed, beabea

    Gilda in LA-01 seems to be reminding folks in her district what it means to be a Democrat.

    I live in IL-14 and we are a pretty pragmatic bunch up here.  A lot of assumed-to-be Oberweis votes went to Foster because Oberweis wouldn't get jack-sh*t out of a Democratic Congress.

    Foster made an unfortunate comment that got used in Obie-won-nun's ads.  Foster said that if you throw enough money at something.....  That backfired on Oberweiss by reminding everyone that Bill Clinton left Bushco a full treasury and no debt.

    I hope that happens to yawl. May the mega-millions Democrats spent up here come your way.

    John Laesch, Jerry Northington [aka Possum], Gilda Reed: You'll be working with a great Dem. President

    by llbear on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:21:51 PM PST

    •  Gilda Reed, yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llbear, gildareed

      but Woody Jenkins--a big no there.  That's the guy we gotta tie to David Duke and hope he has to spend a lot of money in a runoff against the immigrant-hating church lady before we go up against him in May.

      But Gilda Reed and Don Cazayoux (or Michael Jackson--he's my current state rep and a good guy)--that would be more than cool.

      "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

      by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:35:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hit me on the with a big wooden spoon (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bosdcla14, beabea

        I'm donating $25.00 to Michael Jackson & 24.00 to Don Cazayoux. Michael 'cause he's your guy.

        Thanks for setting me straight.

        John Laesch, Jerry Northington [aka Possum], Gilda Reed: You'll be working with a great Dem. President

        by llbear on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:44:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks for the donations (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          llbear

          from someone who will benefit if either one of these guys wins!

          I have been comparing Woody's vote totals with Cazayoux's even though they're running in parallel contests right now, so it's confusing.  No need to hit yourself with the wooden spoon, or the Woody spoon for that matter.

          "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

          by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:50:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Caz (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            beabea

            We really need Cazayoux to be the nominee here.  A Caz/Jenkins race would make this a national target and should a very good prospect for taking a GOP seat.

            With Jackson, it's much less certain.

            •  Agree. (0+ / 0-)

              When I wrote my comment, I was thinking about Cazayoux or Jackson winning the seat.  But I agree that has a better chance of actually happening, with Cazayoux.  And what a great pick up that would be.  

              "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

              by beabea on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 10:53:08 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  an unfortunate name (0+ / 0-)

    It must be tough to be named Michael Jackson these days. I hope his name doesn't hurt his political career.

  •  Final numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beabea

    LA-06

    D

    512 of 512 precincts reporting

    16,596 35% "Don" Cazayoux, D  -  

    8,790 19% Jason DeCuir, D  -  

    1,017 2% Joe Delatte, D  -  

    12,882 27% Michael Jackson, D  -  

    8,176 17% "Andy" Kopplin, D

    Looks like Woody got his fifty percent.

    Edwards Democrats ActBlue Reed LA-01, Kissell NC-08, Welsh IN-06, Ryan KY-01, Taylor NC-09

    by LaEscapee on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 10:33:03 PM PST

  •  Over at redstate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beabea

    They're pretty scared
    of Cazayoux.

    •  Redstate: "Disturbing Development out of LA-06" (0+ / 0-)

      Love it!  I noticed that the person writing this article characterized Don Cazayoux as "a white Democrat", and referred to Woody Jenkin's ideology as "praiseworthy".  Tells me a lot about the people over there.

      Thanks for the link, and for keeping tabs on Redstate for us.

      "...no man can be sure that he may not be to-morrow the victim of a spirit of injustice, by which he may be a gainer to-day." Hamilton, Federalist 78

      by beabea on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 02:31:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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