I don’t intend to be a frequent diarist or commenter, I will never use the word "Breaking" in a title, I will not comment on polls, Rush, or Fox and I will militate against providing links – for factual verification, start with Wikipedia, work outbound from there. These are simply my thoughts; do with them as you will.
I don't know. But one more fell over yesterday: Perennial office aspirant, Republican, businessman, lunatic Jim Oberweis lost out to Democrat, businessman, scientist Bill Foster. And the RNCC reportedly spent a million bucks for the privilege of absorbing a convincing loss -- not a landslide, but not a squeaker, either.
So, with a faintly heard "plop" Oberweis, who would have handily defeated Foster any time from 1994 to 2004 lands softly on the yellow heap. And the vacancy itself was created by the resignation of Dennis Hastert, a Republican stalwart. Representing the district that boasts the boyhood home of Ronald Reagan, former Speaker of the House, "Coach Denny" could bring the bacon home with the best of them, but chose to resign because of the loss of his former power, plus the taint of his dubious role in another Republican's torrid scandal, Mark FOley, whose sexual predilection to young men ran somewhat counter to the Party of the Values Voters.
We started to see the canaries give up the ghost in 2005 when Tim Kaine rallied from behind to beat Virginia AG Jerry Kilgore to keep Virginia's governorship in Democratic hands in this ever-purpling state. There were other dropping canaries for the GOP that year, but Kilgore's was profound enough, and from a high-enough perch to produce a dead-bird bounce.
Moving on, there is no need to restate the 2006 bloodbath -- enjoyable as it was -- though it's nice to highlight names like Sue Kelley, Curt Weldon, Chris Chocola, Conrad Burns, George Allen and a few others, both high-profile challengers and at one time, seemingly safe incumbents.
Some departures, like Jim Leach and Gil Gutknecht, were decent enough human beings and able enough legislators that it was hard for the Democratic community to whip up much of a specific lather by sending them packing. Other departures, like the forced resignation of Tom ("The Hammer"; also, "The Defendant") Delay were reasons for true celebration, since he was both a cause and a symptom of the malady that has gripped the GOP and tainted a country since 1994.
The trend has continued in the GOP primaries, especially among those rushing to claim the "Reagan mantle" (I always preferred Mickey Mantle, myself). The well-funded and eminently unpopular Mitt Romney was soundly sent home to the liberal state he once governed. Conservative savior Fred Thompson can once again be seen in Law & Order reruns, though not on the campaign trail. The Reverend Mike Huckabee was never more than a curiosity. Rudy Giuliani couldn't convince the extremists that he was Right-wing enough and couldn't convince the moderates that he was honest and/or competent enough. Newt Gingrich never even bothered to enter. The others, including Tom "Nuke Mecca" Tancredo, barely registered a ripple in this ever-draining pond.
All that remains is the Republican that the Right loves to hate, John McCain. Sure, they'll still come out for him. Unless there's something good on TV.
And of course, like Hastert and Delay, more than a score of congressional members from the Party of Lincoln found better things to do than run again in 2008. Rick Renzi has criminal charges to defend himself against. Larry Craig avoided that by pleading guilty. Then un-pleading guilty. Except that he can't. Trent Lott's abrupt departure raised more questions than answers. Tom Davis, another truly decent man, was simply too moderate for Virginia Republicans to want as a Senator, so he's leaving the House at the end of a term where his most indelible mark in the public's mind might be as a leading defender of Roger Clemens (Tom might have backed the wrong horse there).
Both parties have lost members to the tragedy of untimely death, but on the Democratic side, Tim Johnson, serving as a metaphor of the Democratic Renaissance, rallied back from a nearly fatal illness to resume his Senate seat, his duties, and his campaign for 2008 as a favorite to retain his seat. On the Democratic side, only William Jefferson stands as a blemish compared to a Republican Congressional caucus that has been all but devastated by defeat, disgust and disinterest.
By all accounts, there is more bad news for the GOP to come in November -- or does anyone see a "turnaround" for Oberweis when he runs against Foster again with one or even two former Illinoisans at the top of the Democratic ticket?
In the space of three short years, 2005 to 2008, we are seeing the decapitation and dismemberment of a Republican party that vaulted to almost unchallenged power through dirty tricks, big money, a pliant media and religious extremism. It's even demonstrated geographically, as Republican strongholds retreat from the plains and into the Gulf States and the Rockies, traditional "safe harbors" for Right-wing radical agendas.
Back to the original question, I don't know how many canary corpses are needed, or how many more will fall, but the last one might be Chris Shays. When New England has no more Republican members of the House, maybe, just maybe, the GOP will admit that their party is wreathed in a miasma, an enveloping stench that has sent away voters in droves and proven that the movement that started with Barry Goldwater, crystallized under Gingrich and peaked with George W. Bush has been a colossal, expensive, violent failure.
And that's not just dead canaries talking.