Many people here claim that the Superdelegates are morally bound to vote for the candidate who has the most pledged delegates. If they don't, the argument goes, they're thwarting the will of the voters.
We all know that pledged delegates aren't necessarily representative of the will of the voters. In Nevada, for example, we saw Obama win more delegates than Clinton despite losing by the popular vote. Dhonig explains this point well today, using Texas as an example.
So what should the Superdelegates base their choice on? A new Rasmussen poll released today says the nomination should go to the candidate who wins the popular vote.
In the craziness of the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it is possible that one candidate might finish the Primary Season with the most pledged delegates while another could end up with the most popular votes. If that happens, 57% of voters nationwide believe the nomination should go to the candidate with the most votes overall. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that just 26% disagree and say the nomination should go to the candidate with the most pledged delegates.
Among Democratic voters, 59% believe the candidate with the most popular votes deserves the nomination while 25% take the opposite view. Barack Obama will almost certainly wind up with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton. However, in what might create a nightmare scenario for Democratic Party leaders, it is also quite possible that Clinton will wind up with more popular votes than Obama.
The opinion of the Democratic electorate is clear: they think the popular vote is the best indicator of the will of the voters. Even Obama supporters agree:
Still, 45% of Obama voters believe that the nomination should go to the candidate with the most popular votes rather than the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Just 32% of Obama supporters believe the candidate with the most pledged delegates should win.
And that's not because they don't know who's ahead in pledged delegates:
Seventy-six percent (76%) of the nation’s Likely Voters know that Barack Obama currently has more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton. However, voters are evenly divided as to who they think will win the nomination. Forty-one percent (41%) say that Obama will win while 38% pick Clinton.
Superdelegates have a tough choice to make if Clinton takes the lead in the popular vote--which she very well could if Michigan and Florida are allowed to re-vote.
For all the talk about ruining the party and riots on the streets of Denver, the electorate doesn't think the leader in pledged delegates matters as much as the popular vote.