It's Tuesday, March 11 and Mississippi - one of the 50 states that needs a president - is headed to the polls.
Most of what America knows in its poplar culture about Mississippi is about Delta blues, Gulf coast destruction, and most especially its role in the Civil Rights Era. So I'm remembering Meteor Blades today, and all the other Freedom Riders and Mississippi marchers who took so many risks in the cause of equality and justice - core principles of the Democratic Party.
Below, we'll do the usual math stuff and how to watch the delegate races as the results roll in when polls close at 7 PM Central. I even have a Mississippi story. And yes, photos.
KEITH SEZ: POLLS HAVE CLOSED - TOO EARLY TO CALL... OBAMA AHEAD... FERRARO A DOUCHEBAG...
STATE CALLED FOR OBAMA, +1 AT-LARGE DELEGATE CLINCHED, NOW WE WATCH THE DISTRICT MARGINS
Predictions:
Obama's spreadsheet predicts: Obama 20, Clinton 13
Al Giordano at The Field pessimistically projects: Obama 17, Clinton 16
Mississippi poster Countificus yesterday predicted: Obama 19, Clinton 14
There are SIX elections being held in Mississippi today.
You will probably only hear about one on the teevee - it is the statewide number that controls two different delegate splits.
Election #1:
Statewide Popular Vote - PLEO 4 delegates.
Winner wins 50% to 62.5%: 2-2 split
Winner wins 62.501% to 85%: 3-1 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 4-0 split
Election #2:
Statewide Popular Vote - at-large 7 delegates.
Winner wins by 1 vote to 64.285%: 4-3 split
Winner wins 64.286% to 78.571%: 5-2 split
Winner wins 78.572% to 85%: 6-1 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 7-0 split
Combined Election #1 and #2 Statewide Popular Vote Meaning:
Winner wins by 1 vote to 62.5%: 6-5 split
Winner wins by 62.501% to 64.285%: 7-4 split
Winner wins by 64.285% to 78.571%: 8-3 split
Winner wins by 78.572% to 85%: 9-2 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 11-0 split
The key area to watch is can Obama break out of the 6-5 split with a Virginia-type number?
Election #3
Congressional District 1 - 5 delegates
Winner wins by 1 vote to 70%: 3-2 split
Winner wins by 70.01% to 85%: 4-1 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 5-0 split
Election #4
Congressional District 2 - 7 delegates
Winner wins by 1 vote to 64.285%: 4-3 split
Winner wins 64.286% to 78.571%: 5-2 split
Winner wins 78.572% to 85%: 6-1 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 7-0 split
Election #5
Congressional District 3 - 5 delegates
Winner wins by 1 vote to 70%: 3-2 split
Winner wins by 70.01% to 85%: 4-1 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 5-0 split
Election #6
Congressional District 4 - 5 delegates
Winner wins by 1 vote to 70%: 3-2 split
Winner wins by 70.01% to 85%: 4-1 split
Loser fails to get 15% threshold: 5-0 split
Add-on Delegate
Mississippi gets 1 Add-on Delegate, to be selected at the state convention on June 7. The add-on is voted on by the pledged delegates won in the 4 congressional district races. Then they vote for the PLEOs and at-large delegates. The MS Democratic Party Chair nominates a list of possible add-ons by May 31, and the individual they pick will be certified in writing to the DNC by June 10.
A Personal Mississippi Story
I've spent time in Mississippi, including several weeks traveling through the state in 1996. One afternoon, weary from the hot road, I stopped into a country convenience store in Yalobusha County in north-central Mississippi. There were some very comfortable old beat up chairs, and I needed a break to rehydrate and rest. There were three 50ish white men hanging out in the store, sitting around chewing the fat, and they amiably engaged me in a conversation.
They could see I was a traveler, and so as people often do with travelers, they began telling me stories. One of them chilled my blood and I have never forgotten it.
Many years before, they told me, there had been a march down the very same road I was traveling on. Blacks were marching from Oakland, just up the road, to Jackson. And so, knowing the marchers were coming, these young white men had gathered a load of bricks, and climbed up on top of metal-roofed buildings that lined the road. The metal roof was hot, they told me. And as the marchers (not the word they used) passed by, they flung the bricks down into the crowd, hitting and hurting as many as they could.
I listened quietly while they fondly relived this episode. Part of me couldn't believe this was really happening. Why were they telling me this? How did they expect me to receive it? From their body language and tone, it didn't seem to occur to them that a white man - about their age when they did this - would find this even objectionable, much less evil.
I felt sick inside, and knew I would be leaving as quickly as I could. Do I angrily denounce them and stride from their store? Do I say nothing? All I actually said was, "How can you throw bricks at people?" And one of them laughed and said about one of the others, "Johnny missed most of 'em!"
I'm thinking of those men tonight, and the change that's coming when a man who looks like Barack Obama can win their state as a presidential nominee.
And the children and grandchildren of those courageous human beings they joyously bricked may be the same marchers going door to door in Mississippi today, coaxing their neighbors to come out and vote.
There is an earthquake rolling in the land.
The moral arc of the universe is long, my friends, but it bends toward justice.
Update: Barack Obama carries Yalobusha County, with 100% reporting... Barack Obama 1479, Hillary Clinton 1094. That just really moves me, I just kind of had a moment here.
[UPDATING RESULTS]
CNN has a county by county results site. As you will note below, a small handful of counties are split between congressional districts. What I plan to do is include the split counties in both districts for the time being. Now, if we are getting right on that 62.5%-64.3% area I'll hunt around, hopefully with your help, to try and separate out the vote in those counties so we have the most accurate projection possible.
The Mississippi Secretary of State's Election Returns site is here.
Statewide Results - Obama 255,809, Clinton 155,686
Statewide Percentage - Obama 62.166%, Clinton 37.834% - so close.
Delegate Split - Obama 19, Clinton 14
Clinton super lucky, could have easily been 24-9.
Obama falling just short of 62.5% (62.166%) statewide for 3-1 PLEO.
Obama falling short of 64.286% (62.166%) statewide for 5-2 at-large.
Obama falling just short of bare majority in CD 1 (48.5%) for 3-2.
Obama falling short of 70.0% (66.7%) in CD 3 for 4-1.
Obama falling short of 78.6% (76.8%) in CD 2 for 6-1.
Obama gains roughly 100,000 popular votes!
As poblano notes below, OBAMA WINS MARCH!
+5, combined with Wyoming, means Obama now +161 in pledged delegates. According to Obama results center, Obama is 1 pledged delegate further ahead than he was on March 3.
The math is inexorable.
Congressional District 1 Counties
Alcorn - 100% reporting: Obama 1016, Clinton 3588
Benton - 100% reporting: Obama 658, Clinton 859
Calhoun - 100% reporting: Obama 1168, Clinton 1439
Chickasaw - 100% reporting: Obama 2157, Clinton 1598
Choctaw - 100% reporting: Obama 748, Clinton 621
Clay - 100% reporting: Obama 3572, Clinton 1142
DeSoto - 100% reporting: Obama 3669, Clinton 4410
Grenada - 100% reporting: Obama 2243, Clinton 1290
Itawamba - 100% reporting: Obama 505, Clinton 2643
Lafayette - 100% reporting: Obama 2849, Clinton 2171
Lee - 100% reporting: Obama 5062, Clinton 6187
Lowndes - 100% reporting: Obama 6792, Clinton 1996
Marshall - 100% reporting: Obama 3745, Clinton 2336
Monroe - 100% reporting: Obama 3517, Clinton 3279
Panola - 100% reporting: Obama 3566, Clinton 2087
Pontotoc - 100% reporting: Obama 1198, Clinton 2306
Prentiss - 100% reporting: Obama 943, Clinton 3709
Tate - 100% reporting: Obama 1862, Clinton 1672
Tippah - 100% reporting: Obama 847, Clinton 2321
Tishomingo - 100% reporting: Obama 393, Clinton 2486
Union - 100% reporting: Obama 945, Clinton 2489
Webster - 100% reporting: Obama 597, Clinton 979
Yalobusha - 100% reporting: Obama 1479, Clinton 1094
Total CD 1 - Obama 49,521, Clinton 52,682 - per USA Today
CD 1 Percentage - Obama 48.5% Clinton 51.5%
Delegate Split - Obama 2, Clinton 3
Congressional District 2 Counties
Attala - 100% reporting: Obama 2050, Clinton 1393
Bolivar - 100% reporting: Obama 4948, Clinton 1352
Carroll - 100% reporting: Obama 1079, Clinton 890
Claiborne - 100% reporting: Obama 2237, Clinton 479
Coahoma - 100% reporting: Obama 3402, Clinton 1350
Copiah - 100% reporting: Obama 4002, Clinton 1662
Hinds - 100% reporting: Obama 39,599, Clinton 9072
Holmes - 100% reporting: Obama 3777, Clinton 807
Humphreys - 100% reporting: Obama 1795, Clinton 533
Issaquena - 100% reporting: Obama 284, Clinton 129
Jefferson - 100% reporting: Obama 2111, Clinton 263
Laflore - 100% reporting: Obama 3475, Clinton 830
Leake (western) - 100% reporting: Obama 2003, Clinton 1134
Madison (northern) - 100% reporting: Obama 9810, Clinton 2881
Montgomery - 100% reporting: Obama 1348, Clinton 789
Quitman - 100% reporting: Obama 1262, Clinton 530
Sharkey - 100% reporting: Obama 920, Clinton 313
Sunflower - 100% reporting: Obama 3432, Clinton 1298
Tallahatchie - 100% reporting: Obama 1901, Clinton 992
Tunica - 100% reporting: Obama 989, Clinton 445
Warren - 100% reporting: Obama 5232, Clinton 2118
Washington - 100% reporting: Obama 6083, Clinton 1500
Yazoo - 100% reporting: Obama 3241, Clinton 1507
Total CD 2 - Obama 90,513, Clinton 27,290 - per USA Today
CD 2 Percentage - Obama 76.8%, Clinton 23.2%
Delegate Split - Obama 5, Clinton 2. 78.57% was the 6-1 threshold.
Congressional District 3 Counties
Adams - 100% reporting: Obama 4529, Clinton 1477
Amite - 100% reporting: Obama 1660, Clinton 897
Covington - 100% reporting: Obama 1924, Clinton 1311
Franklin - 100% reporting: Obama 901, Clinton 600
Jasper (western) - 100% reporting: Obama 2774, Clinton 1172
Jefferson Davis - 100% reporting: Obama 2383, Clinton 780
Kemper - 100% reporting: Obama 1793, Clinton 458
Lauderdale - 100% reporting: Obama 5185, Clinton 1964
Lawrence - 100% reporting: Obama 1375, Clinton 1042
Leake (eastern) - 100% reporting: Obama 2003, Clinton 1134
Lincoln - 100% reporting: Obama 2856, Clinton 1883
[Madison (southern) - 100% reporting: Obama 9810, Clinton 2881 - most of this is in CD 2 not added]
Marion (western) - 100% reporting: Obama 2234, Clinton 1788
Neshoba - 100% reporting: Obama 1412, Clinton 1245
Newton - 100% reporting: Obama 1677, Clinton 979
Noxubee - 100% reporting: Obama 2016, Clinton 298
Oktibbeha - 100% reporting: Obama 4471, Clinton 1588
Pike - 100% reporting: Obama 4623, Clinton 1949
Rankin - 100% reporting: Obama 6439, Clinton 3948
Scott - 100% reporting: Obama 2449, Clinton 1363
Simpson - 100% reporting: Obama 2506, Clinton 1428
Smith - 100% reporting: Obama 972, Clinton 1200
Walthall - 100% reporting: Obama 1640, Clinton 913
Wilkinson - 100% reporting: Obama 1642, Clinton 351
Total CD 3 - Obama 62,121, Clinton 31,051 - per USA Today
CD 3 Percentage - Obama 66.7%, Clinton 33.3%
Delegate Split - Obama 3, Clinton 2, 70.0% was the 4-1 threshold.
Congressional District 4 Counties
Clarke - 100% reporting: Obama 1960, Clinton 972
Forrest - 100% reporting: Obama 5552, Clinton 3584
George - 100% reporting: Obama 484, Clinton 1632
Greene - 100% reporting: Obama 711, Clinton 1149
Hancock - 100% reporting: Obama 1255, Clinton 2836
Harrison - 100% reporting: Obama 9762, Clinton 8070
Jackson - 100% reporting: Obama 8146, Clinton 6315
Jasper (eastern) - 100% reporting: Obama 2774, Clinton 1172
Jones - 100% reporting: Obama 4474, Clinton 5388
Lamar - 100% reporting: Obama 1943, Clinton 3213
Marion (eastern) - 100% reporting: Obama 2234, Clinton 1788
Pearl River - 100% reporting: Obama 1507, Clinton 2750
Perry - 100% reporting: Obama 736, Clinton 1072
Stone - 100% reporting: Obama 890, Clinton 1293
Wayne - 100% reporting: Obama 1977, Clinton 1765
Total CD 4 - Obama 42,636, Clinton 41,768 - per USA Today
CD 4 Percentage - Obama 50.5%, Clinton 49.5%
Delegate Split - Obama 3, Clinton 2.
OK, so... there was, like, this site? USA Today? Yeah. Well, they pretty much did all this for me. Bastards! Thank you guys for having fun with it anyway, and thanks to the people who provided that link because now we can say in a close CD 4 that Obama definitely won.
Dear Chuck Todd: I love you man, you are the best, but would you please explain that winning 65% of all the remaining delegates is NOT anywhere remotely the same as winning 65% of the remaining vote... it is more like winning 75%-25% in every state to get that kind of delegate split! Please, dude! Please. For the love of God.
OK, this is difficult to keep pace with, sorry for the slow speed, I will do it differently in the future so that it'll be much more quickly updated, but it's too late to implement the fix this time... just bear with me... even easier for yourself if you just can't wait go to the CNN site and look at the percentages in the counties to get a sense.
And what I will now do, is update the list when counties go 100%. Thanks for understanding, I will do a hyperlinked spreadsheet for Pennsylvania so I can just put in one number change and all the numbers change from there. Wyoming and its 23 caucus sites lulled me into a false sense of security!
Further update, just for the record... Dan Abrams, you aren't "on their trail" or the great outer of "Teh Inside DC Medias." You are an impossibly insipid simpletonian self-parody.