Skip to main content

The Magnolia State primary is today, so post your predictions with percentage below and I will revise them and post the winner  tomorrow. I promise to make a donation through the winner's homepage to the Obama campaign if s/he is an Obama supporter. Sorry Hillary fans can't waste my money on the incompetent Mark Penn..

Here's my prediction:

The deep south votes along racial line this primary cycle. In Mississippi, it will be no different. Here's one important fact to mull over: The AA population vote as a monolithic group in MS and they should be expected to make up 60% of the primary electorate because favorite son Obama is running.

Obama is poised to get 92% of the AA votes and will net 30% of White voters.

So crunching these numbers in using the amazing pollster.com spreadsheet, here's the predicted final result for MS:

Black making up 60%: Obama 92%-08%
White 36% : Clinton 70%-30%
Latino/others 04% :Clinton 67%-33% getting her usual share.

Result:

Barack Obama 67.3%

Hillary Clinton 32.7%

After rounding:

Barack Obama 67%

Hillary Clinton 33%

Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet to crunch the numbers can be  found here
http://www.pollster.com/...

Make a donation here http://my.barackobama.com/...
I like watching the meter goes up

Originally posted to Jr1886 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 11:36 AM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site