After Obama's net of ten delegates from Iowa in the last 24 hours, the chances of Clinton winning the nomination have continued to plummet. The delegate count (w/o superdelegates) currently stands at:
Obama 1420
Clinton 1249
Simple math, that's a 171 delegate lead.
There are 566 pledged delegates left to be decided.
Any candidate needs 2025 to clinch the nomination. Thus, Obama needs 605 more delegates, Clinton 776.
Let's break down the next ten states and hypothetical margins of victory...
First is the percent victory, followed by the delegate breakdown:
PA: C 58 O 42....C 92 O 66
GU: C 60 O 40...C 2 O 2
IN: C 50 O 50...C 36 O 36
NC: C 48 O 50...C 55 O 60
WV: C 60 O 40...C 17 O 11
KY: C 60 O 40...C 31 O 20
OR: C 45 O 55...C 23 O 29
PR: C 55 O 45...C 30 O 25
MT: C 40 O 60...C 6 O 10
SD: C 40 O 60...C 6 O 9
With these hypotheticals (tried to slant in Clinton's favor...best case), Clinton would net 298, Obama 268. Again, this is really a best case scenerio for Clinton.
The final pledged delegate totals would stand at...Obama 1688 (337 more to clinch), Clinton 1547 (478 needed).
Now we move onto Superdelegates. The current count (per the AP) stands at Clinton 249, Obama 213. That is a 36 superdelegate lead by Clinton.
With these superdelegates added into the delegate totals...Obama 1901 (124 needed to clinch), Clinton 1796 (229 needed). Again, this is using best case scenerios for Clinton in the next ten states.
There remains ~333 superdelegates left to endorse. Let's again assume a best case scenerio for Clinton...with the superdelegates breaking 60/40 in her favor. That would mean nets Obama 133, Clinton 200 of the remaining superdelegates.
The final totals would stand...Obama 2034, Clinton 1996.
Obama would surpass the 2024 necessary, clinching the nomination.
Bottom line...even in a best case scenerio for Clinton, the superdelegates would have to break for her in something like a 70/30 manner....that is just impossible.