OK, I tried this earlier, but messed up the poll. So I'll try again to sum up what each Democratic needs to clinch the nomination give a current status report, no poll this time.
This was all brought on by seeing Obama pass the 1,600 delegate mark (by my calculations). This both hit home, as in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and made the math really easy: 2,025-1,600 = 425. It also helped that (before MS) there were 599 pledged delegates left. A 50/50 split was easy to figure (300).
After reading the awesome diary by PocketNines, I decided to differentiate between add-on and free super delegates.
Bottom line, Obama's magic number is 402. Assuming a 50/50 split in the remaining pledged delegates (283 each), he needs 119 more supers, 328 total. Clinton's # is 527 (ironic?). At a 50/50 split, she needs 244 more supers, 488 total. If one projects the add-on delegates, Obama's magic # is 359, at 50/50 he only needs 76 more Supers (328 total). Hence the #'s 359/283/76/328 depending on how you count. Clinton's magic # is 496, needing 213 more supers (457 total). Her #'s w/ add-ons are 496/283/213/457.
More grizzly details below the fold.....Oh, and by the way, I concede that 3 is the magic number for most situations. Feel free to point out any math errors/typos.
I. Where are we now?
As I see it, the "third quarter" of the nomination battle is now over. I break the Democratic "season" down into 4 quarters, detailed below. To come up with my numbers, I use numbers from four major news sources: AP, CNN, NBC, CBS; and two political junkie web-sites: Green Papers (GP) and Real Clear Politics (RCP).
First Quarter = Pre-Super Tuesday (IA, NH, NV, SC): 137 pledged at stake.
Second Quarter = Super Tuesday: 1,681 pledged delegates at stake.
Third Quarter = Post Super Tuesday February + March: 869 at stake
Fourth Quarter = April to Convention: 566 at stake + FL/MI + Supers.
By my count, right now
Total Delegates: Obama up: 1,623.5 to Clinton 1,498.5; Net: Obama +125
Pledged Delegates: Obama 1,389.5 to Clinton 1,238.5; Net: Obama +160
Super Delegates: Clinton 244 to Obama 209; Net: Clinton +35 (DCW)
And here's how we got there in two parts: first pledged delegates, then Super delegates. If you don't care or are willing to take these #'s as they are, just skip down to part III: Magic Numbers.
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I. Pledged Delegates First (Broken down into quarters):
A. First Quarter: Obama 72; Clinton 47; Edwards 18; Net Obama +25;
These numbers are unanimous from all 6 sources, save Iowa, where the recent allotment of some of Edwards' delegates at the convention hasn't been fully incorporated into some of the reporting.
IA(45) = BO 25, HC 14, Edwards 6 (AP,GP,NBC,RCP); others 16-15-14,
NH(22) = Tie 9-9, Edwards 4
NV(25) = Obama 13-12
SC(45) = Obama 25-12, Edwards 8
B. Second Quarter: Obama 847, Clinton 834; Net Obama +13
For the Super Tuesday states, there isn't unanimity yet, but its getting closer. Four states do not have unanimous totals (CA,CO,GA,TN) of those, Colorado is the only state with a significant number of delegates unallocated. The other states either have only 1 source out of alignment with the others, or the dispute involves only one delegate. First, states on which all six sources agree.
NY(232) = Clinton 139-93
IL(153) = Obama 104-49. There was a report of a +2 Obama gain, stay tuned.
NJ(107) = Clinton 59-48.
MA(93) = Clinton 55-38.
MO(72) = Tie 36-36.
MN(72) = Obama 48-24
AZ(56) = Clinton 31-25
AL(52) = Obama 27-25
CT(48) = Obama 26-22
OK(38) = Clinton 24-14
AS(35) = Clinton 27-8
KS(32) = Obama 23-9
NM(26) = Clinton 14-12
UT(23) = Obama 14-9
ID(18) = Obama 15-3
DE(15) = Obama 9-6
ND(13) = Obama 8-5
AK(13) = Obama 9-4
AS(3) = Clinton 2-1
States with differing delegate totals:
CA(370) = Clinton 204-166 (AP). Rest at 203-167. Final results are now in. GP (who had 203-167 initially) and all the rest still at 203-167.
GA(87) = Obama 60-27 (GP,AP,NBC). Again, movement from 61-26, where CNN, CBS, and RCP still are. GP and AP were slowest to project, and first to go to 60-27.
TN(68) = Clinton 40-28. All agree save CBS 39-28 and RCP 39-29. Again, these are slow to switch from the initial 39-29 and 38-28 calls.
CO(55) = Obama 35-20 (AP,NBC,RCP). 2nd wave of caucus results in. The rest are still stuck on their election night projections: 33-13 (CNN), 32-13 (CBS), and 19-9 (GP).
So, at halftime it really close. Obama 919, Clinton 881; Net Obama +38. He won the 1st Qtr. by +25 72-47), 2nd Qtr. by +13 (847-834).
C. Third Quarter. Obama 495.5, Clinton 373.5; Net Obama +122.
Obama ran the rest of the table in February, winning 11 in a row and netting 121 more delegates than Clinton. Clinton came back from the brink on March 4th, winning 3/4 but only netting six delegates. Throw in Wyoming and Mississippi wins, where Obama netted 7 delegates, and Obama wins the quarter by +122. Here's the state by state breakdown, chronologically by contest date. Again, save for Texas, no state has more than 2 delegates in dispute among the various sources.
WA(78) = Obama 52-26. CNN & RCP have it 53-25, but I'll go w/ the others.
LA(56) = Obama 33-23 (GP). Others 34-22. GP changed from 34-22 initially.
NE(24) = Obama 16-8. All agree.
VI(3) = Obama 3-0. All agree.
ME(24) = Obama 15-9. All agree.
VA(83) = Obama 54-29. All agree.
MD(70) = Obama 42-28. All agree but CBS 44-24. NBC switched from same.
DC(15) = Obama 12-3. (GP, NBC). CNN 11-4. RCP 11-3. AP, CBS 10-3.
DA(7) = Obama 4.5-2.5. GP's tally. Others 3-1 save NBC at 4-2.
WI(74) = Obama 42-32. All agree.
HI(20) = Obama 14-6. All agree save RCP at 14-5.
TX(193)= Obama 99-94 (GP,CNN). RCP 98-94. AP,NBC 92-92. CBS 89-84 Obama.
OH(141)= Clinton 75-66 (GP,NBC). 74-65 AP,CBS,CNN.
RI(21) = Clinton 13-8. All agree save RCP at 12-8.
VT(15) = Obama 9-6. All agree.
WY(12) = Obama 7-5. All agree.
MS(33) = Obama 19-14. All agree save GP at 17-11.
So, Obama up by +160 Pledged after three quarters: 1,414.5-1,254.5 (Half: Obama 919-881 + Third Obama 495.5-373.5). Still, 1,414.5 is a long way from 2,025 (610.5). With only 566 pledged delegates available, no candidate can reach 2,025 on pledged delegates alone, which is where Super Delegates come in.
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II. Super Delegate Race:
Here, there is variance among the media outlets, but as I write this, most are in the same ballpark. GP and DCW are the superior sites, as GP does a state by state summary, and DCW lists each Super delegate, and breaks down Add-On delegates in a separate category. Before we get too far in the weeds, lets look at what the various outlets are reporting as of today.
DCW: Clinton 244, Obama 209; Clinton +35
GP: Clinton 244, Obama 208; Clinton +36
AP: Clinton 249, Obama 213; Clinton +36
NBC: Clinton 253, Obama 217; Clinton +36
CBS: Clinton 247, Obama 210; Clinton +37
RCP: Clinton 248, Obama 213; Clinton +35
CNN: Clinton 237, Obama 207; Clinton +30
Throw out CNN (who are slow, not the "Best Political Website" IMHO), and the average is +36. Plus, DCW was at +36 until today, so I'll go with their current count. Another advantage of going with DCW is they list each delegate as they commit, and are the only outlet to distinguish between add-on super delegates and other super delegates.
But before we do that, we can use the DCW totals to see where the race is currently, and then do our first set of magic number projections
By my count, right now (as we said earlier)
Total Delegates: Obama up: 1,623.5 to Clinton 1,498.5; Net: Obama +125
Pledged Delegates: Obama 1,389.5 to Clinton 1,238.5; Net: Obama +160
Super Delegates: Clinton 244 to Obama 209; Net: Clinton +35 (DCW)
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III. Magic Numbers
The magic number one candidate needs will vary depending on: 1) What scenario one assumes (% of remaining pledged delegates won, if MI and/or FL will be included) and 2) How far into the weeds one goes (Add-On super delegates, CD by CD projections). For starters, lets just do some basic assumptions and stay out of the weeds for now.
Currently, Obama needs 402 delegates to get to 2,025, Clinton needs 527. There are 908 delegates left, 566 pledged delegates up for grabs in the 10 remaining contests (PA 158, GU 4, NC 115, IN 72, WV 28, OR 52, KY 51, PR 55, SD 15, MT 16). And according to DCW's numbers there are 342 Super delegates uncommitted (795 -(244+209)). So...
A. Basic Magic Numbers: (No MI/FL, or add-on stuff): 50/50, 55/45, 60/40
- 50/50 Split of Pledged delegates (283 each)
Obama: 402-283 = 119 of 342 remaining Supers to get home; 35%
Clinton: 527-283 = 244 of 342 Supers left to get home; 71%
Or alternatively (and this is what I like better), total supers needed:
Obama: 209+119 = 328 Total Super delegates
Clinton: 244+244 = 488 Total Super delegates
- 55/45 Clinton Split of Pledged delegates
Obama: 402-255 = 147 of 342 Supers left; 43%; Super Total needed = 356
Clinton: 527-311 = 216 of 342 Supers left; 63%; Super Total needed = 460
- 60/40 Clinton split of Pledged delegates
Obama: 402-226 = 176 of 342 Supers left; 51%; Super Total needed = 385
Clinton: 527-340 = 187 of 342 Supers left; 55%; Super Total needed = 431
To be fair, HC will probably take PA (and FL if there is a revote), along with WV, KY, and PR. MI and IN seem close, and BO is favored in NC, OR, SD, and MT. No idea about Guam. HC has only exceeded 60% of the VOTE in one state (Arkansas, 70%). And we know that one will need more than 60% of the vote to get 60% of the DELEGATES (see MS: Obama 61% of the vote, 57.5% of the delegates). Point being, I think 55/45 is the best she can hope for, and that is a long shot with Obama favored in 4 states and 2 toss-ups.
B. Add-Ons Generally: 76 of 795 Super Delegates; only 2 counted
But it's actually WORSE than that for camp Clinton. As pointed out by reading PocketNine's excellent diary here yesterday,
Link: http://www.dailykos.com/...
with an assist from Fly at TPM: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com...
The MSM has widely ignored the fact that there are really two types of Super delegates. The first is the type who are super delegates due to the position they hold (Gov, Senator, House Rep, DNC position, party leader). They were supers before anyone started voting, and are free to make up their mind on any basis they choose.
The second type of super is an "add-on" super delegate. These delegates are chosen in a variety of ways, AFTER the primary/caucus has taken place, usually at the state convention. These people are chosen BECAUSE of whom they support, not because of their position or elected status. For example, would Illinois delegates elect an add-on delegate who supports Clinton? Or NY delegates one that supports Obama? Of course not.
76 of the 795 Super delegates are of the add-on variety. Each state gets at least 1, some bigger states and DC get 2 (GA, NJ, MA, MO, TN, MN, WA, VA, MD, WI, OH, NC) while a few states get even more (IL, PA, TX = 3, NY = 4, CA = 5). While the method of selection is murky in some cases, and thus impossible to be sure the state winner will get the add-on delegates, as pointed out by PocketNines and Fly, in some cases it isn't and one can project which way they will go. Bottom line: even though the actual "delegate" hasn't been selected yet, one knows who they will support.
62 of 76 add-ons belong to states that have already voted. Only 2 are declared (both for Obama, 1 from AL, 1 from DC). When one uses the projections that PocketNines and Fly laid out, you get an Obama lead of 23-7 in the "transparent" process states, and a lead of 40-24 if one simply allocates the add-ons to the winner (TX being the exception, because the committee that votes on the add-ons is controlled by the caucus winner, Obama). (Fly's writing happened before WY and MS, I added them in).
If one projects the remaining states: HC PA(3), WV(1), KY(1), PR(1), and IN(1) (be generous) it brings her total to 31, while Obama would bag NC (2), OR(1), SD(1), and MT(1). Total projection = 45-31 Obama.
The effect is that there are actually less super delegates up for grabs than first anticipated. Only 2 Add-ons have been allocated in the DCW totals (both for Obama). If breaks down like this:
Free Super delegates: 719 Total; 244 HC, 207 BO, 268 left.
Add-On Supers: 76 Total, BO 2, HC 0; Projected 40-24, 12 left; 45-31 all.
Total Super delegates: 795 (719+76)
OK feed the new projections into the Super delegate count:
Obama: 209 (incl. 2 add-ons) + 43 (45-2) = 252 Total Supers
Clinton: 244 + 31 = 275 total Supers
Whats left = 281 (242+272 = 514; 795-514 = 281)
And the overall delegate count:
Obama: Total = 1,666.5 (1,414.5(PL) + 252(SD))
Clinton: Total = 1,529.5 (1,254.5 + 275)
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C. Add-On Scenarios: 50/50, 55/45, 60/40
Using the 45-31 projection for add-ons and the resulting decline in the number of unpledged supers (342 to 268), here are the Add-On scenarios.
- 50/50 Pledged split (566/2 = 283)
Obama: 2,025 - 1,666.5 = 359 MN - 283 = 76 of 268 supers left; 28%
Clinton: 2,025 - 1,529.5 = 496 - 283 = 213 of 268 supers left; 79%
- 55/45 Clinton
Obama: 359 - 255 = 104 of 268 Supers left; 39%
Clinton: 496 - 311 = 185 of 268 Supers left; 69%
- 60/40 Clinton
Obama: 359 - 226 = 133 of 268 Supers left; 50%
Clinton: 496 - 340 = 156 of 268 Supers left; 58%
One final word, if Obama has anywhere near the 50 Supers in his pocket like his camp was claiming, a 50/50 split gets him w/in 26 of the finish.
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D. MI and FL Scenarios
This would represent the third layer of the weeds. One revote or two? MI seems likely still, though legislation is needed. FL seems unlikely. But a negotiated settlement of some type is still possible. Still, I'm going to hold off recalculating the whole ball of wax until we get firm details on one, the other, or both.
I'll just mention in passing the following: 1) MI and FL have 313 pledged delegates between them (128 and 185 respectively); 2) This ups the finish line to 2,208 delegates from 2,025; 3) MI and FL have 54 Super delegates between them (49 Free (26/23) and 5 Add-on's (2/3) respectively). Lastly, here is the breakdown if the delegations were seated as is and the Supers allowed to vote.
In terms of MI/FL Super delegates right now
Obama: 5 (1/4)
Clinton: 15 (7/8)
In terms of Pledged delegates; the MI/FL totals from earlier
Obama: 55 (MI Uncommitted) + 67 FL = 122
Clinton: 73 MI + FL 105 = 178
Edwards: 13 FL
Clinton would net +56 PL and +10 Supers if these delegations were seated as is, counting the "uncommitted" MI delegates as Obama supporters (since they refused to vote for Clinton).