With only 35 short days left until election day in Pennsylvania, it's time for a bit of an introduction into delegate allocations and various other factors that could be relevant in Pennsylvania.
First off, from what I can gather the delegate allocations were probably inspired by the Rendell/Swann results, or a combo of that, and the 2004 Presidential results.
Districts with 9 delegates: CD2 (Fattah)
Districts with 7 delegates: CD1 (Brady), CD7 (Sestak), CD8 (Murphy), CD13 (Schwartz), CD14 (Doyle)
Districts with 6 delegates: CD6 (Gerlach)
Districts with 5 delegates: CD3 (English), CD4 (Altmire), CD11 (Kanjorski), CD12 (Murtha), CD15 (Dent), CD18 (T. Murphy)
Districts with 4 delegates: CD5 (Peterson), CD10 (Carney), CD16 (Pitts), CD17 (Holden), CD19 (Platts)
Districts with 3 delegates: CD9 (Shuster)
So what could this mean for the actual primary?
One easy response is "a 2 to 1 split in CD9".
But there's also the issue of registration. The Suburban SE-PA districts (CD6, 7, 8) also have high Republican registration percentages (if there was party reg by districts, it would be easier). But there's 20 delegates in relatively Obama-friendly territory, that may not be in high voting districts.
As for an area that produces a lot of votes. Southwestern Pennsylvania, which is expected to go Clinton. In an uncontested primary, CD12 had over 60K votes in 2006. CD18 has 52K votes. Both CD1 and CD2 had over 70K votes combined in uncontested 2006 primaries.
So.. an area of concern is how much turnout is coming out of Philadelphia.
How about a disaster scenario for Pennsylvania? Obama wins CD1 and CD2, and loses everything else
Clinton tops 70% in CD4 (4-1), CD9 (2-1), CD10 (3-1), CD11 (4-1), CD12 (4-1), CD18 (4-1). That produces a 21-6 margin.
Clinton tops 60% in CD3 (3-2), CD17 (3-1), and 60% in CD19 (2-2). Which narrows the margin to 29-11.
Clinton wins CD5 (2-2), CD6 (3-3), CD7 (4-3), CD8 (4-3), CD13 (4-3), CD14 (4-3), CD15 (3-2), CD16 (2-2). The margin is now 55-32.
As noted, Obama wins CD1 and CD2. 4-3 in CD1, 6-3 in CD2. Which means the margin is 61-42.
That would be around about a 60-40 Clinton victory in the popular vote.
Of course the whole issue of who turns out is one area of concern. Higher the Philadelphia turnout is, the lower the Clinton percentage. CD1 is slightly uncertain since it's not majority-African-American. CD2 should be around 2 to 1 for Obama.
Another helpful thing: Winning the Philly-area 7 delegate seats. Winning in Sestak, Murphy, and Schwartz's districts produces a 12-9 margin (as opposed to losing 12-9).
So, on the subject of delegate math, where do you stand?