With Obama's speach yesterday we are back to normal as far as the polls and campaign should be concerned. We are back to math, talking about pledge delegates, super delegates etc.
So what does the math say for the next 9 contests, eight US stated and Puerto Rico. I will omit Guam as it is not very relevant.
It is clear that HRC cannot catch up with pledge delegates, but how about popular vote. I did a little digging with the census bureau, exit polls and total votes from other states that voted either republican or democrat in 2004 and 2000 and below is my best case estimate for HRC for popular vote. I estimated that in blue states the turnout would be higher as a percentage of state population than in red states.
Pennsylvania 12.4 Mil and 2.3 Mil to vote HRC wins by 15% nets 345,000
Indiana 6.3 Mil and 880K vote HRC wins by 10% and nets 88,000
North Carolina 8.9 Mil and 1.35 vote and BO wins by 10% nets 135,000
WV 1.8 Mil and 230K vote and HRC wins 20% and nets 46,000
KY 4.2 MIl and 500K vote and HRC wins 25% and nets 125,000
OR 3.7 Mil and 700K vote and BO wins by 10% and nets 70,000
ND .63 MIl and 75K vote and BO vins 10% and nets 7,500
MT .94 Mil and 100K vote and BO wins 10% and nets 10,000
PR 3.8 Mil and 380K vote and HRC wins 25% and nets 95,000
SO HRC wins net her 699,000 votes while conservative estimates for BO wins give him 222,500 and that's a net gain for HRC of 476,500
According to www.realclearpolitics.com BO leads by 813,000K without Florida and by 519,000.
While she comes close to drawing if Florida is included she still comes short 42,500 and without Florida she is 336,500 short.
She only has superdelegates to look for or to change the rules of the game. However, I do not think Michigan would be a good result for her in a revote, it has 15+ black population and that would be hard for her to overcome.
Also please all got to AOL STRAW POLL and cast your vote for your candidate.