In 2006, I began compiling composite rankings from the various individuals and publications that rank the likelihood of turnover in House seats, in addition to my own ratings. I plan to do the same thing this year, and this is the first installment.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Stuart Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, and Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), and the National Journal Hotline and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric.
For the ranking system, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 10 list gets 10 points, #10 gets 1). FWIW, both the Hotline and Cilizza only have top 10 at the moment, which is fairly unhelpful.
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean hold races, and 15 points for likely hold races. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean takeover, 60 points for a pure lean takeover, and 75 for a likely takeover. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean hold category.
Since there are five raters, a score of 37-111 is a composite "likely hold"; a score of 112-186 is a composite "lean hold"; a score of 187-261 is a composite tossup; and a score of 262-336 is a composite "lean takeover." There is only one seat currently in this last category: Illinois 11. The consensus top 10 seats to change hands are all GOP held open seats: NY-25, NJ-03, NJ-07, VA-11, OH-15, OH-16, IL-11, MN-03, NM-01 and AZ-01.
I present the composites both in terms of composite tiered rating and ranked by total points. Obviously, the higher a seat's total points, the more likely it is to change parties. In addition, as the title indicates, I present this first installment like a final four bracket (Top 16 and also rans divided by region). In addition to being in keeping with the season, this makes it a bit easier on me--since there are so many ties, I only have to break ties within regions. Unlike the NCAA, I have geographic integrity in forming my regions, although I expanded some and contracted others to try to balance out the brackets. For this exercise, the Northeast Region is New England, NY, NJ, PA, MD and DE. The South region is the former Confederacy plus WV, KY, MO and OK. The Midwest region is confined to OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN and IA. The West region is the Plains States (ND, SD, NE, KS) and everything west.
P.S. Full disclosure: Most of the ratings for IL-14 were done pre-Foster's election, so I made the seat pure "Lean Dem" which is where I figure it will end up. Most were done pre-Bud Cramer's retirement announcement, so I just made that race pure "Tossup". Ditto fot the IN-07 special (now pure Likely Dem) and NY-26 (now pure tossup). Also, for no apparent reason, Rothenberg does not list OR-05 or VA-11 at all, which I can only assume is an oversight. I credited him with calling both "lean hold."
Northeast Region
#1 Seed: New York 25 (OPEN R (Walsh)) (228: Tossup): Dan Maffei (D), who narrowly lost to departing incumbent Jim Walsh (R) in 2006, has drawn a major primary opponent in Syracuse Mayor Matt Driscoll (D). The GOP is still candidate searching.
#2 Seed: New York 26 (Tom Reynolds (R)) (225: Likely GOP): The New York GOP is dropping like flies. Reynolds' announcement that he is out will spark interest in the race from both sides. The district is ever so slightly GOP.
#3 Seed: New Jersey 03 (OPEN R (Saxton)) (212: Tossup): Dems have a top tier candidate in State Sen. John Adler (D), whose entry into the race may have had something to do with the incumbent's exit. The GOP has a multitude of lesser known candidates at this point.
#4 Seed: New Jersey 07 (OPEN R (Ferguson)) (210: Tossup): Like NY-25, the Democrat is a 2006 nominee who narrowly lost, State Assemb. Linda Stender (D). Unlike NY-25, the GOP has significant candidates in the race as well, principally State Sen. Min. Ldr. Leonard Lance (R) and Kate Whitman (R), daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, the last Republican to win a statewide election.
#5 Seed: Pennsylvania 10 (Chris Carney (D)) (180: Lean Dem): Carney won this heavily GOP (and longtime GOP-held) district in 2006 over a scandal-plagued incumbent. Now, he's among the top GOP targets. The GOP candidates are businessmen Dan Meuser and Chriss Hackett.
#6 Seed: New Hampshire 01 (Carol Shea-Porter (D)) (172: Lean Dem):
Shea-Porter won possibly the biggest upset of 2006. Undefunded and with little institutional support, Shea-Porter rode New Hampshire's Blue Wave to oust GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley. Bradley is back for a rematch.
#7 Seed: Connecticut 04 (Chris Shays (R)) (165: Lean GOP): Shays survived a tough, expensive campaign in 2006--becoming the last standing GOP Rep. in New England (yes, I know CT-04 is more like New York suburbs than "New England"). This year, he has another strong, well funded opponent in Greenwich Dem Chair Jim Himes (D).
#8 Seed: New York 29 (Randy Kuhl (R)) (150: Lean GOP): This is a rematch of a close 2006 race between Kuhl and Former Naval Officer Eric Massa (D). Massa, who was Gen. Wes Clark's aide at one time, never stopped running. The New York GOP continues to decline, and Massa may do better in his second run here.
#9 Seed: Pennsylvania 04 (Jason Altmire (D)) (150: Lean Dem): Altmire's win over Melissa Hart in '06 was a bit of an upset. Like Jeb Bradley, Hart is seeking a rematch in this suburban Pittsburgh district.
#10 Seed: New York 20 (Kirsten Gillibrand (D)) (150: Lean Dem): Gillibrand ran a very solid campaign in 2006 to take out John Sweeney in one of the races that support the "put a fork in the GOP in the Northeast" theory. RNC member Sandy Treadwell (R), a former NY Sec'y of State is the GOP frontrunner.
#11 Seed: New York 19 (John Hall (D)) (105: Likely Dem): In 2006, Hall, an ex-musician, came out of almost nowhere to beat Rep. Sue Kelly in a district that appears to be trending Dem. The GOP recruited a rich self-funder to take Hall on, but their candidate dropped out, leaving the GOP with second tier options.
#12 Seed: Pennsylvania 06 (Jim Gerlach (R)) (105: Likely GOP): My, how the mighty have fallen. Or the vulnerable have entrenched. Or something. After 3 consecutive 51-49 wins and Dem recruiting disappointments, Gerlach looks a lot stronger. Retired businessman Bob Roggio (D) is the only current challenger.
#13 Seed: Connecticut 05 (Chris Murphy (D)) (90: Likely Dem): Murphy scored a crushing win against longtime GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson in 2006. He is a young Dem star on the rise. Nonetheless, he has drawn decent challengers, state legislators David Cappiello (R) and Tony Nania (R).
#14 Seed: Pennsylvania 18 (Tim Murphy (R)) (75: Likely GOP): Murphy drew himself a district in suburban Pittsburgh in 2002 and has been fortunate that he's never had a strong challenge for it. The Dems look better positioned than they have been in the past here, with three challengers in the race including Beth Hafer (D), the daughter of former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer (D).
#15 Seed: Connecticut 02 (Joe Courtney (D)) (75: Likely Dem): Courtney ousted Rep. Rob Simmons in one of 2006's closest races and received good news when Simmons opted against a rematch. He faces decidedly second tier opponent Sean Sullivan in what should be a Democratic seat.
#16 Seed: Pennsylvania 11 (Paul Kanjorski (D)) (75: Likely Dem): The media is all agog over this race because Kanjorski's opponent is Hazleton Mayor and anti-immigration hardliner Lou Barletta (R). A favorite of Lou Dobbs, Barletta has gotten a bunch of free press. But, he ran against Kanjorski in 2002 and got trounced, the district is a Dem district and Kanjorski is a popular, low-profile guy.
Other districts which earned points:
-PA 15 (Charlkie Dent (R)) (60: Likely GO
-PA 03 (Phil English (R)) (60: Likely GOP)
-PA 08 (Patrick Murphy (D)) (60: Likely Dem)
-MA 05 (Niki Tsongas (D)) (45: Likely Dem)
-NH 02 (Paul Hodes (D)) (45: Likely Dem)
-NY 13 (Vito Fossella (R)) (45: Likely GOP)
-NY 24 (Mike Arcuri (D)) (45: Likely Dem)
--NY 03 (Peter King (R)) (30)
-PA 07 (Joe Sestak (D)) (30)
-MD 01 (OPEN R (Gilchrest)) (15)
-ME 01 (OPEN D (Allen)) (15)
-NJ 05 (Scott Garrett (R)) (15)
South Region
#1: Virginia 11 (OPEN R (Davis)) (226*: Tossup): This seat is seriously trending blue and Davis was going to get a real challenge for the first time in a decade even without Davis calling it quits. The Dems have a large field featuring former Rep. and '05 Lt. Gov. nominee Leslie Byrne (D) and Fairfax County Council Chair Gerry Connolly (D). The lone GOPer at this stage is self-financer Keith Fimian (R).
#2: Alabama 05 (OPEN D (Cramer)) (225*: Tossup): Cramer's surprise retirement last week gives the Dems a big open seat headache. Cramer is one of a handful of remaining "old Southern Dems" holding districts that have drifted Republican over the last 20 years but whose individual popularity make them safe. John Spratt of South Carolina and Gene Taylor of Mississippi are two other examples that come to mind. Still, Cramer's exit is not necessarily the kiss of death for Dems. Dem redistricters deliberately shored up the district in 2002 in case of Cramer's retirement. The district now has a 17% black voting population. This means that Dems can hold the seat with about 40% of the white vote. Several prominent local pols from both parties are eyeing the race.
#3: Florida 16 (Tim Mahoney (D)) (195: Tossup): Mahoney is the consensus most vulnerable incumbent. He was a well-financed but underdog challenger to GOP Rep. Mark Foley when the latter suddenly had to drop out and resign when his predilection for underage boys came out. The GOP was stuck with Foley's name on the ballot and their campaign of "a vote for Foley is really a vote for State Rep. Joe Negron (R)" did not succeed. This time, Mahoney's likely opponent is State Rep. Gayle Harrell.
#4: Texas 22 (Nick Lampson (D)) (186: Lean Dem): Somewhat surprisingly, Lampson is not rated most vulnerable. Like Mahoney, Lampson came to Congress in a bizarre fashion in 2006. He served in the House from 1997-2005. He was one of the targets and victim's of Tom DeLay's 2004 Texas re-remap, losing a race for the newly drawn 2d District badly. He then filed against DeLay himself in the neighboring 22d in 2006. After DeLay was indicted and saw that he would lose to Lampson, he dropped out and waged a legal battle to allow the GOP to replace him on the ballot. The end result was a blank slot and a hastily organized write in campaign--and a Lampson win. While this district is a heckuva lot more Republican, the likelihood that '06 candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, who is not well liked, may get the nomination buoys Lampson.
#5: North Carolina 08 (Robin Hayes (R)) (172: Lean GOP): Hayes, a multimillionaire who represents a district that depends heavily on textile manufacturing. To put it mildly, his constituents oppose free trade agreements and CAFTA in particular. Hayes promised to vote against CAFTA, and then was the deciding vote to pass it. He was opposed by teacher Larry Kissell (D) in '06. Kissell had few resources and no institutional support, but ran a great race and lost one of the closest races in the country. He is back for a rematch with the party behind him this time.
#6: Georgia 08 (Jim Marshall (D)) (172: Lean Dem): Marshall (along with fellow Dem John Barrow (D)) was the target of Georgia Republicans' DeLay-style re-remap. Marshall's Macon based district got a LOT redder and he drew a challenge from former Rep. Mac Collins (R) in 2006. Marshall, however, hung on to win 51-49. The GOP is taking a page out of the Dems' book and running a retired general, Rick Goddard (R). Complicating things for Marshall is a major league primary challenge from Macon Mayor Jack Ellis (D).
#7: Florida 13 (Vern Buchanan (R)) (120: Lean GOP): Another goofy 2006 race here. This was Katherine Harris' seat. When she left to get stomped by Sen. Bill Nelson (D), this was an expensive and spirited open seat contest between Buchanan and banker Christine Jennings (D). Going into the election, the GOP had more or less written off Buchanan and counted the seat among 10 expected losses. But--wait for it--a problem with touch screen voting machines only in the most Democratic part of the district caused a number of voters not to cast a ballot in the race. Buchanan "won" by a whisker. Jennings hasn't stopped running and 2008 will be a rematch.
#8: Missouri 06 (Sam Graves (R)) (120: Lean GOP): Graves has held this suburban Kansas City district since Rep. Pat Danner (D) retired in 2000. Graves has drawn his first tough challenger since then in former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D).
#9: Louisiana 06 (VACANT R (Baker)) (105: Likely GOP): Baker resigned to cash in in the private sector. Both parties have runoffs following the special election primary. For the Dems, state Reps. Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson face off; the GOP has former state Rep. and '96 Senate Nominee Woody Jenkins facing consultant Laurinda Calogne. Cazayoux is easily the stronger Dem in a general election; Jenkins is a polarizing figure. If it is a Cazayoux-Jenkins matchup, the Dems have a very good chance at a second 2008 special election pickup; if Jackson wins the nomination, the GOP probably holds. The runoff is April 5; the general is May 3.
#10: Texas 23 (Ciro Rodriguez (D)) (105: Likely Dem): Rodriguez was another Texas incumbent ousted as a result of the DeLaymander, but not by a Republican. Fellow Dem Henry Cuellar, who gave GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla a scare in 2002, was drawn into Rodriguez's district instead and narrowly defeated him in the 2004 primary. Midway through 2006, however, the Supreme Court struck down the portion of the Texas re-remap involving these districts. When they were redrawn, both were far more Democratic (Rep. Lamar Smith (R) got a much more GOP district). Rodriguez jumped into the race against Bonilla and beat him handily in a December runoff after neither got 50% in November. This year, the GOP's handpicked self-financing challenger lost his primary and Rodriguez will face Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson (R).
#11: Missouri 09 (OPEN R (Hulshof)) (90: Likely GOP): Hulshof jumped into the gubernatorial race when Matt Blunt decided to sacrifice himself on the altar of abysmal poll numbers and bow out of his reelection campaign. Hulshof is a six-term Congressman who narrowly ousted a Dem in 1996 and has gotten safer over time as the district has gotten more GOP. Still, the Dems have a very strong field in this open seat race, which includes State Rep. Judy Baker, Marion County Comm. Lyndon Bode and former state House Speaker Steve Gaw. The GOP has the much mocked Brock Olivo and a trio of current or former state Reps., Blaine Leutkemeyer, Daniel Moore and Bob Onder.
#12: Kentucky 03 (John Yarmuth (D)) (90: Likely Dem): Yarmuth finally took back the Louisville-based 6th from five term Rep. Anne Northup (R) in 2006. This district is the only net Democratic district in Kentucky, but Northup survived several tough battles to hold it for a decade. Yarmuth beat her 52-48 in '06 and she's back for a rematch. Yarmuth's incumbency and the lean of the district (not to mention Northup's underwhelming '07 run for governor) make him the favorite.
#13: Georgia 12 (John Barrow (D)) (90: Likely Dem): Barrow survived a very close rematch with former Rep. Max Burns (R) in 2006; this was the Dem seat the GOP came the closest to picking off that year. Partly to blame was the re-redistricting which removed Athens from the district. Unlike Jim Marshall's 8th District, however, this district is still net-Dem. The GOP has only a couple second tier challengers this time: nuclear services manager Ray McKinney (R) and radio announcer John Stone (R).
#14: Florida 24 (Tom Feeney (R)) (75: Likely GOP): Abramoff-tied Feeney had a closer than expected race against an underfunded Clint Curtis (D) in 2006. Curtis is back, but the Dem frontrunner is former state Sen. Suzanne Kosmas, who has had some hefty fundraising since her entry into the race.
#15: Virginia 02 (Virginia Drake (R)) (75: Likely GOP): Drake had a very close reelection battle in 2006 against Dem recruit Phil Kellam. Businessman Glenn Nye (D) has just jumped into the race for this southeast VA military-heavy district.
#16: Florida 08 (Ric Keller (R)) (60: Likely GOP): The #16 seed was a three-way tie that was hard for me to break. I went with Keller because he had a closer than expected race in 2006, the Dems have a big field of well-funded challengers and the Orlando-based seat is the type that the Dems can win under the right circumstances.
Other districts that earned points:
-North Carolina 11 (Heath Shuler (D)) (60: Likely Dem)
-West Virginia 02 (Shelley Capito (R)) (60: Likely GOP)
-Alabama 02 (OPEN R (Everett)) (45: Likely GOP)
-Florida 15 (OPEN R (Weldon)) (45: Likely GOP)
-Louisiana 04 (OPEN R (McCrery)) (45: Likely GOP)
-Florida 22 (Ron Klein (D)) (30)
-Texas 17 (Chet Edwards (D)) (30)
-Florida 10 (Bill Young (R)) (15)
-Florida 21 (Lincoln Diaz Balart (R)) (15)
-Kentucky 02 (OPEN R (Lewis)) (15)
-Louisiana 02 (Bill Jefferson (D)) (15)
-North Carolina 03 (Jones (R)) (15)
-Virginia 10 (Wolf (R)) (15)
Midwest Region
#1: Illinois 11 (OPEN R (Weller)) (285: Lean Dem): This southwest Chicago suburban and exurban district is ranked as the most likely seat to turn over in the nation by far. There are many reasons for this. The seat is fairly evenly split. The Dems have an all star recruit in state Sen. Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson. The GOP nominee dropped out after the primary, so the party must scramble to find a replacement. Also, the prospect of Obama at the top of the ticket and Bill Foster's impressive special election win in the neighboring 14th paint a bleak picture for the local GOP.
#2: Ohio 15 (OPEN R (Pryce)) (225: Tossup): This Columbus-based district was host to one of the closest 2006 races, between Pryce and Franklin County Comm. Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Kilroy is running again; Pryce is not. But after much agonizing, the GOP got the candidate they wanted: state Sen. Steve Stivers (R). Expect another close one.
#3: Minnesota 03 (OPEN R (Ramstad)) (225: Tossup): Ramstad has held this suburban Twin Cities district easily. With him out of the picture, however, there is a battle set up solid candidates on both sides. The Dem frontrunner is state Sen. Terri Bonoff (D). Also running is attorney Ashwin Madia (D). The lone GOP candidate is state Rep. Erik Paulsen (R).
#4: Ohio 16 (OPEN R (Regula)) (217: Tossup): Regula is retiring after 36 year from the 16th, which is based in Canton. The nominees are set: state Sens. John Boccieri (D) and Kirk Schuring (R). Boccieri has looked strong, while Schuring has limped out of the gate, barely surviving a primary challenge. Still this district is more Republican than those appearing above it in this region.
#5: Michigan 07 (Tim Walberg (R)) (165: Lean GOP): Walberg is a far right wingnut (approved by Dept. of Redundancy Dept.) who ousted more moderate Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) in the primary in this lean GOP district in '06, and then won underwhelmingly against vastly underfunded Dem Sharon Renier in the fall. Clearly, elements of the GOP are not satisfied with Walberg; the fact that Schwarz considered switching parties to challenge him is evidence that the rift has not healed. State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D) is a top challenger who stands to gain from that rift.
#6: Wisconsin 08 (Steve Kagen (D)) (165: Lean Dem): In 2006, Kagen picked off the GOP leaning Green Bay district left vacant by former Rep. Mark Green's unsuccessful run for governor. Dems won the seat when it was open in 1996, too, only to lose it to Green in 1998. Kagen hopes to avoid the same fate. In his favor is a probable rematch with the same flawed opponent he beat in 2006, former state Assembly Speaker John Gard (R). Gard is opposed in the GOP primary by state Rep. Frank Lasee (R).
#7: Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk (R)) (150: Lean GOP): Kirk represents a suburban district that seemingly gets more Democratic every time you look at it. After drawing an opponent who ran an actual campaign for the first time since his initial election in 2006, Kirk found himself in a real fight. He ended up winning 53-47, but that opponent, Dan Seals (D), is back for a rematch. A presidential year with popular Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) at the top of the ticket may spell curtains for Kirk.
#8: Illinois 14 (Bill Foster (D)) (150*: Lean Dem): Foster is the upset winner of this month's special election for the seat left vacant by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), who resigned following his loss of position. In a display of ineptitude of which only the Illinois Republican party appears capable, the GOP engaged in a bloody, scorched earth primary between State Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) and self- funding/promoting rich guy/nutjob Jim Oberweis (R). Hastert, who can't stand Lauzen, endorsed Oberweis despite playing a part in recruiting Alan Keyes into the state to run for Senate in 2004 rather than give that nomination to Oberweis after nominee Jack Ryan dropped out. Oberweis won the primary for both the special election and the general. The district's voters then did the only rational thing--elect Foster. Now the state GOP is desperately trying to get Oberweis--who has now lost 2 campaigns for Senate, a campaign for governor, and a campaign for the House in the last 6 years--to drop out so he can be replaced. Good luck with that.
#9: Indiana 09 (Baron Hill (D)) (150: Lean Dem): Every even year in southern Indiana, people hope for a return of the glory days of IU basketball (that one happens in odd years, too) and brace themselves for a congressional race between Rep. Hill and Mike Sodrel (R). Hill beat Sodrel in '02. Sodrel edged Hill in '04. Hill came back and ousted Sodrel in '06. Now, Sodrel is hoping that the fourth installment favors him as much as the second. Sodrel's fundraising is down, however, and Hill has to be a slight favorite.
#10: Ohio 18 (Zack Space (D)) (120: Lean Dem): In the immediate aftermath of 2006, the consensus was that Space would be a top target in 2008. He won a district with a serious GOP tilt after Rep. Bob Ney got indicted and dropped out. Space did, however, trounce his ultimate opponent, a highly touted GOP state Senator. This time, the GOP brought out the B Team. The nominee is former state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey (R).
#11 Michigan 09 (Joe Knollenberg (R)) (120: Lean GOP): Knollenberg is the midwest equivalent of a Chris Shays or Sue Kelly (GOP Rep. ousted by John Hall in '06)--longtime incumbent whose district is shifting beneath his feet. Knollenberg had a surprisingly close race in '06 against the underfunded Nancy Skinner, and has drawn a strong challenge this year from former state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters (D).
#12: Illinois 08 (Melissa Bean (D)) (120: Lean Dem): Another election cycle, another slide down the target lists for Melissa Bean. The GOP is doing what it did in '06--running a rich self-funder, this time Steve Greenberg (R), so the party does not have to commit resources and hope for the best. Bean should roll.
#13: Minnesota 01 (Tim Walz (D)) (105: Likely Dem): Walz took out Rep. Gil Gutknect (R) in 2006, in part because Gutknecht violated his term limit pledge, in part because of Iraq and in part because of the fact that this district, which contains the Mayo Clinic, hasn't cottoned to the GOP's anti-science bent. Walz will have reasonably tough competition from one of state Sen. Dick Day (R), state Rep. Randy Demmer (R), or physician Brian Davis (R).
#14: Illinois 06 (Peter Roskam (R)) (75: Likely GOP): Roskam won a nailbiter against Tammy Duckworth (D) to win an open seat race in '06. Rahm Emanuel detractors point to this race as crowning proof of the former DCCC Chair's incompetence (conveniently ignoring the other 30 pickups and no losses on his watch). Duckworth was a wounded Iraq vet recruited into the race by Emanuel, Illinois Sens. Dick Durbin (D) and Barack Obama (D) due to dissatisfaction with '04 nominee Christine Cegelis (D), who was already running. Duckworth lived just outside of the district, and that fact was used to great effect in a bitter primary and again in the general. The principal beneficiary of the infighting was Roskam, who won 51-49. This time, neither Duckworth nor Cegelis is running. Instead, the Dem standard bearer will be another Iraq vet, Jill Morgenthaler (D), who faces an uphill battle to unseat Roskam.
#15: Indiana 07 (Andre Carson (D)) (75*: Likely Dem): Carson defeated GOP state Rep. Jon Elrod rather soundly despite GOP hype that it could score an upset in this Indianapolis-based district to offset IL-14. Elrod is back for the fall (as are a few minor opponents). Meanwhile, Carson still has a tough primary for the seat he just won with state Reps. Carolene Mays (D) and Dave Orentlicher (D), and former state Health Comm. Woody Myers (D).
#16: Illinois 18 (OPEN R (LaHood)) (60: Likely GOP): This Peoria-based seat has been Republican forever, held first by former GOP leader Bob Michel and then by his aide, LaHood. LaHood's exit promised a competitive race, but the Dem candidate, former basketball coach Dick Versace dropped out. He has recently been replaced by TV reporter Colleen Callahan (D). She will have a bit of an uphill fight against state Rep. Aaron Schock (R), who has been running for months.
Other districts that earned points:
-Indiana 02 (Joe Donnelly (D)) (60: Likely Dem)
-Indiana 08 (Brad Ellsworth (D)) (60: Likely Dem)
-Minnesota 06 (Michelle Bachmann (R)) (60: Likely GOP)
-Ohio 14 (Steve LaTourette (R)) (45: Likely GOP)
-Illinois 17 (Jay Hare (D)) (15)
-Indiana 03 (Mark Souder (R)) (15)
-Iowa 02 (Dave Loebsack (D)) (15)
West Region
#1: New Mexico 01 (OPEN R (Wilson)) (225: Tossup): This is a quintessential swing district, taking in Albuquerque and some GOP-leaning surrounding areas. Despite several strong runs at Rep. Heather Wilson since she was first elected in 1997, she has proved unflushable. After winning one of the country's closest races in 2006, Wilson has announced for the open New Mexico Senate seat. Dems have a strong field, including Albuquerque Councilman Martin Heinrich, former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron and former NM Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham. Also running on the Dem side are attorney Robert Pidcock and former Gov. Richardson aide Jessica Wolfe. The GOP race is between Bernalillo county sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joe Carraro.
#2: Arizona 01 (OPEN R (Renzi)) (225: Tossup): Renzi is the fourth sitting GOP Congressman in the last two years to be indicted on corruption charges. Unlike Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham and like Bob Ney, Renzi has refused to resign. If he's still in office on Election Day, it will be a major drag on the GOP nominee in this slightly lean-GOP district. Just ask Rep. Zack Space (D-OH) and his overwhelmingly defeated '06 opponent, Joy Padgett. Both parties have multiple candidates in the race, but the frontrunners appear to be state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) and state Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes (R). Kirkpatrick has a head start on campaigning and fundraising.
#3: Kansas 02 (Nancy Boyda (D)) (195: Tossup): Boyda was one of the bigger upsets on election night '06. Her opponent, former Rep. Jim Ryun (R), is seeking a rematch but he has to get past state Treas. Lynn Jenkins (R) in the primary first. Boyda is in better shape than could have been expected in this GOP-friendly district, especially with Obama at the top of the ticket.
#4: Oregon 05 (OPEN D (Hooley)) (180: Lean Dem): Hooley won this slightly Dem-leaning swing district in 1996, sweeping out a freshman Repub elected in the 1994 tsunami. Since then, she's beaten back some tough challenges and has finally gotten pretty secure. So that apparently means it's time to retire. Still, the Dems have a strong candidate in their frontrunner, state Sen. Kurt Schrader (D). He has four primary opponents, the most notable of whom is former Gov. Chief of Staff Steve Marks (D). The GOP is set for an expensive and potentially divisive primary between self-funding '06 nominee Mike Erickson (R) and former state Sen. and '06 Gov. nominee Kevin Mannix (R).
#5: California 11 (Jerry McNerney (D)) (180: Lean Dem): McNerney rid the United States Congress of a true American douchebag, Richard Pombo. He did it in a district configured specifically for Pombo's protection. As such, the GOP is actively fighting to get this seat back lest McNerney become entrenched like Ellen Tauscher, who won the GOP's second last Bay Area district in 1996. McNerney will face former state Assemb. Dean Andal (R).
#6: Washington 08 (Dave Reichert (R)) (172: Lean GOP): Political neophyte Darcy Burner (D), a former Microsoft executive, put together one of the best first time campaigns seen on either side in 2006. She came up just short of knocking off Reichert in this evenly divided suburban Seattle district. Burner is back for what promises to be another close rematch.
#7: Alaska at Large (Don Young (R)) (172: Lean GOP): Don Young has been a mainstay in the delegation since the Nixon administration and is a main part of the festering cancer of corruption that is the Alaska GOP. He, like Sen. Ted Stevens, is so crooked that he's being investigated by the Bush FBI. Young faces a serious primary challenge by Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux. The Dems have a very strong candidate in former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D). Polling has Berkowitz leading Young. Should Young lose the primary, the odds of GOP retention go way up, but with two challengers, the anti-Young vote is divided (see felon and fmr. Ohio Rep. Jim Traficant's 2000 primary).
#8: Nevada 03 (Jon Porter (R)) (150: Lean GOP): Porter was among a host of 51-49 GOP winners in 2006. This time around, his likely opponent is Clark County Chief Deputy DA Robert Daskas (D). Also running is accountant Andrew Martin (D). The suburban Las Vegas seat was drawn to be evenly divided among the parties. Obama's western strength may help the Dem.
#9: Arizona 05 (Harry Mitchell (D)) (150: Lean Dem): Mitchell, the former mayor of Tempe, knocked off professional blowhard J.D. Hayworth (R) in 2006. Mitchell will face spirited competition in this slightly GOP-leaning district from state Rep. Mark Anderson (R), fmr. state Rep. Laura Knaperek (R) or lobbyist Jim Ogsbury (R).
#10: Colorado 04 (Marilyn Musgrave (R)) (135: Lean GOP): What is it with Colorado Republicans? The delegation has 3 GOPers: Doug Lamborn, who out-Christian righted several others to represent Colorado Springs; single issue anti-immigrant xenophobe Tom Tancredo; and single issue anti-gay homophobe Musgrave. Despite representing a district that should never enven be close, Musgrave seems to always have to squeak out wins because constituents seem to want a member of Congress that gives a rat's ass about something other than what rights same sex couples get. This time, Dems are running businesswoman Betsy Markey.
#11: Arizona 08 (Gabrielle Giffords (D)) (105: Likely Dem): Giffords scooped up the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe after the Repubs nominated anti-immigrant nutjob Randy Graf. This time, Giffords won't have it quite so easy; her opponent is state Sen. GOP leader Tim Bee (R). Still, Giffords is in good shape.
#12: California 04 (OPEN R (Doolittle)) (90: Likely GOP): The ethically challenged Doolittle came close to losing his uber-GOP seat to strong Dem Charlie Brown in 2006. He has announced his retirement, however. While Brown is back, he might find it tougher without Doolittle to kick around anymore. The GOP does have a potentially ugly primary between moderate former Rep. Doug Ose (R) and conservative carpetbagging multi-time statewide loser Tom McClintock (R). The GOP primary also contains a Ron Paul organizer with the best name in the '08 candidate lists: Theodore Terbolizard (R).
#13: New Mexico 02 (OPEN R (Pearce)) (90: Likely GOP): This is the Republican southeast part of New Mexico which contains little Texas. Incumbent Pearce is running for the open Senate seat. Both parties have full primary slates. For the Dems, it will be Dona Ana County Comm. Bill McCamley (D), fmr. Lea County Comm. Harry Teague (D) or '06 nominee Al Kissling (D). McCamley is probably the favorite. The GOP field includes banker Aubrey Dunn (R), Sierra County GOP chair Earl Greer (R), Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman (R), businessman Greg Sowards (R) and businessman Ed Tinsley (R).
#14: Kansas 03 (Dennis Moore (D)) (75: Likely Dem): Moore used to be a perennial target, but has coasted in recent years. The GOP has a strong recruit in state Sen. Nick Jordan (R).
#15: Wyoming at Large (OPEN R (Cubin)) (60: Likely GOP): Gary Trauner (D) came within a whisker of winning a stunning upset over Cubin in 2006. This year, we will find out whether that was due to Trauner's appeal or Cubin's unappeal. The state has not elected a Dem to federal office since the 1970s. The GOP has a big field led by former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (who was passed over for the vacant Senate seat) and state Rep. Dan Zwonitzer.
#16: Nevada 02 (Dean Heller (R)) (45: Likely GOP): Heller won a hard-fought open seat race with Dem Jill Derby for the heavily GOP district that includes all of Nevada other than the Las Vegas metro area. Derby is back for a rematch.
Other districts which received points:
-Arizona 03 (John Shadegg (R)) (30)
-Idaho 01 (Bill Sali (R)) (30)
-California 41 (Jerry Lewis (R)) (15)
-California 50 (Brian Bilbray (R)) (15)
-South Dakota at Large (Stephanie Herseth (D)) (15)