On March 18, Barack Obama delivered his speech on race and politics in the United States. CNN breathlessly reported that major damage had been done to Sen. Obama's candidacy, as the daily Gallup tracker showed him 7 points behind Clinton. The key question posed by every pundit was whether the speech would be enough to staunch the bleeding. From today's Gallup result, we now know the answer is a resounding yes. Follow below the fold for analysis.
March 16, 17 and 18th were 3 horrible polling days for Obama, as he lost 5 points, 1 point, and 4 points vs. Clinton consecutively. This worked out to be a net loss of 10 points over just 3 days. Now two days after "The Speech," Obama has made up 5% points; he is behind Clinton by 2%, 47 to 45, a spread contained by the poll's margain of error. There is good reason to think Obama will gain again tomorrow, as the data from March 18th, the final terrible polling day for Obama will be dropped from the 3-day rolling average.
In sum:
Date (March) | Obama | Clinton | Change from previous day (O) |
15 | 48 | 45 | |
16 | 45 | 47 | -5 |
17 | 44 | 47 | -1 |
18(Speech) | 42 | 49 | -4 |
19 | 43 | 48 | +2 |
20 | 45 | 47 | +3 |
Thus, we can see that Obama has gained each day after the speech. Of course, while Obama is not yet where he was before the Rev. Wright story, there is absolutely no doubt that "The Speech" has helped his campaign tremendously.