Cross-posted at Democrashield
Yesterday I reported that the self-imposed cease-fire by Moqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army was unraveling, sparking violence in the heart of Iraq:
A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.
Simultaneously, in the strategic southern port city of Basra, where Sadr’s Mahdi militia is in control, the Iraqi government launched a crackdown in the face of warnings by Sadr’s followers that they’ll fight government forces if any Sadrists are detained. By 1 a.m. Arab satellite news channels reported clashes between the Mahdi Army and police in Basra
Well, now the violence has spread as the Mahdi Army clashed with Iraqi security forces both inside and outside the capitol city.
More below..
Iraqi security forces battled the Mehdi Army militia in Basra on Tuesday in a drive to win control of the southern oil city, but violence appeared to be spreading to Baghdad and other cities.
[...]
In a statement read out by a senior aide on Tuesday, [Moqtada Al-]Sadr called on Iraqis to stage sit-ins all over Iraq and said he would declare a "civil revolt" if attacks by U.S. and Iraqi security forces continued. He also threatened a "third step", but said it was to early to announce what it would be.
[...]
Pro-Sadr students forced Mustansiriya University in Baghdad to close on Tuesday. Members of Sadr's movement said the protest would spread to other towns and cities from Wednesday.
Police sources said Sadr supporters seized control of five districts in the southern town of Kut on Tuesday after clashes between gunmen and police.
[...]
Police said fighting erupted in several Sadr City neighbourhoods between Mehdi Army fighters and the Badr Organisation, the armed wing of a rival Shi'ite faction.
Baghdad's Green Zone, the government and diplomatic compound, was hit by several salvoes of rockets during the day. U.S. military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Steven Stover said they had been fired from Sadr City.
The Guardian also has a video up of the violence erupting across Iraq.
What does this mean for American troops? Well, it's nothing less than a disaster.
Violence has abated in Iraq in recent months, which Republicans like George W. Bush and John McCain have attributed to the 2007 troop surge. Remember that the surge began in January 2007 and take a look at the American troop casualties between then and now:
When the surge began, there were slightly more than 80 troop deaths per month. During the spring, after the surge began, there was a huge spike in violence that began in April, peaked in May and decreased until July. In July and August American troop deaths went back to where they were when the surge began--a little over 80 per month. It was only after August that American troop deaths began to taper off, leading to the the relatively-low levels they're at now.
What happened in August that was unusual? Well, the Mahdi Army began their voluntary cease-fire, which continued right up until yesterday. Now, I'm not saying the surge had no effect, or that the Mahdi Army is the sole cause of American casualties in Iraq. But Al-Sadr's militia were responsible for a lot of anti-American violence, and it's undeniable that the recent reduction in casualties is somewhat attributable to their ceasefire.
This is just one more reason showing why the surge hasn't--and couldn't--work. Iraq isn't a military problem. Unless we're willing to pour hundreds of thousands more soldiers into Iraq, there's no way we can quell the violence ourselves.
John McCain and the Republicans think Iraq can be solved through bullets. They're wrong. Iraq needs a political solution--it needs to bring everyone, including Moqtada Al-Sadr, to the table and come up with a comprehensive political plan for their country's future. Unless we can get the various factions to agree to stop fighting, they never will. This is what we Democrats have been saying for years, and it's exactly why the GOP can no longer be trusted with our national security.
The Republicans and John McCain gambled on the surge, and lost. How will they spin this most recent setback in the war? How will they pretend that their failed policies didn't lead to this increase in violence? What idiotic plan or justification will they come up with now to continue putting our troops in danger? And when will they realize that Iraq's problems can only be solved at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield?
UPDATE: Basra is an oil-rich city, and there's word that the Mahdi Army is threatening to set fire to the oil fields:
An official in Sadr's Basra office, speaking on condition of anonymity said, "The Sadr current [movement] is threatening to set fire to the oil wells in Basra if the Iraqi military continues its security plan."
UPDATE II: More recent developments in the fighting:
Two rockets landed on Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's compound, but did not explode, an Iraqi government security official said
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Al-Sadr's headquarters in Najaf also ordered field commanders with his Mahdi Army militia to go on maximum alert and prepare "to strike the occupiers" a term used to describe U.S. forces and their Iraqi allies, a militia officer said.
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Lawmakers from al-Sadr's movement announced in a Baghdad press conference that a general strike campaign which began in selected neighborhoods of the capital and included the closure of businesses and schools was being expanded nationwide.
Three police officers were kidnapped from a checkpoint in eastern Baghdad, a police official said on condition on anonymity because he wasn't supposed to release the information.
Stores and schools also were closed in several other predominantly Shiite neighborhoods in the capital, and armed Mahdi Army members were seen patrolling the streets in some Shiite neighborhoods of the capital.
In Basra, Iraqi soldiers and police battled Mahdi fighters for control of key neighborhoods in Iraq's second-largest city, 340 miles southeast of Baghdad.
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In Baghdad, suspected Mahdi Army gunmen exchanged gunfire with security guards of the rival Shiite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council in Sadr City, police said.
Yesterday, John McCain said:
"We're succeeding. I don't care what anybody says. I've seen the facts on the ground,"
I wonder if he still feels that way...
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And then feel free to send it along to any elected officials/candidates you might happen to know/support.