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The latest Public Policy Polling survey shows an Obama surge in North Carolina. This is the poll that showed Obama falling to a tie with Clinton during Wrightgate: Now, thanks to increased white support, he's up 21 points.

Barack Obama - 55 (44)
Hillary Clinton - 34 (43)

From the pollster...

Obama leads Clinton 55-34 in the state. His gains were particularly strong in the Triangle, the media market where his major speech on the war last week in Fayetteville got the greatest amount of attention.

Obama also pulled within a 47-40 margin of Clinton with white voters after trailing Clinton 56-30 last week, an indication that his speech on race in Philadelphia last week may have earned him some points.

"The rule of thumb in this Presidential race is that if you don’t like how things are going, just wait a week and they’ll turn around," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "Obama has really improved his standing in North Carolina by visiting the state and openly taking on some of the controversies swirling around his campaign."

If we assume, as the Obama campaign assumes, that Clinton will win PA, I think the only shot at a pre-August campaign finale is an Obama landslide in NC coupled with a same-day Indiana win.

Originally posted to daveweigel on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:42 AM PDT.

Poll

How much would Obama have to win by in NC to knock out Clinton?

30%85 votes
21%62 votes
25%72 votes
22%63 votes

| 282 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ok, we're in Huckabee land. (5+ / 0-)

    Considering that Clinton has no money either, isn't she almost in Huckabee land?

    Huckabee took a hint. Why won't Hillary?

    -fink

  •  North Carolina is Key!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Walt starr

    I hope he wins it. and wins it by a large margin.
    But win it he must please god.

    Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win by fearing to attempt. William Shakespeare

    by notquitedelilah on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:46:24 AM PDT

  •  North Carolina: Not Mattering (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paintitblue

    This is great news, especially when coupled with teh PA poll earlier. I hope it holds.

    John McSame, because change can be scary.

    by Walt starr on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:46:31 AM PDT

  •  surge? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foreign obesver

    can we find another word.

    I get queasy.

    It's the stupid, stupid.

    by Bindle on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:46:45 AM PDT

  •  Wow... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thisniss

    One of those polls is an outlier.  I'm just not sure which one is.  I have a very tough time believing that he is ahead by 21 points after being essentially tied.

    The Democratic Party - Finding new and interesting ways to lose the Presidency since 1968!

    by RichM on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:46:56 AM PDT

  •  That's a pretty big lead (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp, paintitblue

    It's getting harder to argue for an HRC nomination when her wins are usually single digit and Obama's are in the 10-30 point range.  If this holds he can pick up a significant number of delegates.  

    Also it sure is comforting to me to see his strength among white voters returning.  I suspect that in a place like NC, there may be a lot of whites who are so used to working and socializing with AA colleagues that perhaps his speech on race put the Wright thing to bed, once and for all.

    In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock. ...Thomas Jefferson

    by ivorybill on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:47:01 AM PDT

  •  PPP has traditionally underestimated Obama (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thisniss, BasharH, paintitblue

    his proportion of the vote in PPP polls is usually about 2-3% lower than he actually ends up with, while Hillary's tends to be more variable.

  •  Polls doesn't seem reliable (0+ / 0-)

    As much as I would love it to be true, the poll doesn't seem that reliable.  PPP does not have that great a record, and some of the detailed information in the poll was just plain wierd.

    For example, right now Obama is doing better in the poll among 46-65 year olds than 18-29 year olds.

    I'm going to wait until a better polling firm polls NC before I get overjoyed.

    Full Disclosure: I'm an Obama Supporter

    by smash artist on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:51:35 AM PDT

    •  You have to give Obama an extra 15 points in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumblebums

      margin among 18-29 year olds for pretty much any PPP poll. It's been borne out in every single contest that they underpoll Obama's support among 18-29 year olds by double digits.

      TX: final PPP Obama 50-47; exit poll Obama 59-40 [16 [point diff]
      OH: final PPP Obama 49-46; exit poll Obama 61-35 [23 point diff]
      WI: final PPP Obama 64-32; exit poll Obama 70-26 [12 point diff]
      NY: final PPP Clinton 57-27; exit poll Obama 56-43 [43 point diff]
      GA: final PPP Obama 60-33; exit poll Obama 77-20 [30 point diff]
      TN: final PPP Clinton 42-34; exit poll Obama 53-44 [17 pt diff]
      SC: final PPP Obama 52-22; exit poll Obama 67-23 [14 pt  diff]

      Their other numbers are a little more reliable (significantly better than the pirates and Zogby, at least)

  •  Gobama-Gobama-Gobama uh! Gobama n/t (0+ / 0-)

    I love the smell of impeachment in the morning!

    by gabbardd on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:51:53 AM PDT

  •  Clinton will be gone soon enough... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tjqhzonff, Pinecone

    just watch the choreography, and remember to clap.

    Jesus ain't comin', go ahead and put the Nukes back now.

    by RisingTide on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:58:12 AM PDT

  •  N.C. Doesn't count (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thisniss, Rorgg

    It is filled with latte sipping liberal Black people.

  •  NC Obama win: good time for Edwards to endorse (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thisniss

    I live in Asheville, and look forward to Barack coming here to the mountains to rally the "troops".  It'd be nice if the Clinton - Obama war was over before the NC primary, but if it isn't, that night would be a good time for our John Edwards to declare that "the Democrats of North Carolina have spoken" and endorse Obama.  Maybe he's been holding off until he could say that?

    •  according to the crosstabs on this poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thisniss

      NC voters would be more persuaded against Edwards' endorsed candidate than for. Most of them say it would make no difference.

      Every day, more and more states do not count. Today 26 states (plus D.C., V.I., D.A., and the TX caucus) face meaninglessness. You can help!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 11:10:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well, it says that for Clinton (0+ / 0-)

        may not necessarily be true for Obama.  I know that may not be logical, but the question is would an Edwards endorsement make you more/less likely to vote for Clinton.  "Less" gets 31%, "More" gets (can't remember... something like 19%?), everyone else says "no dif."  But it might have been a different answer for Obama.  This is more complicated terrain than just "agreeing" with Edwards, as it also seems to reflect a certain expression of feelings about "politickin" or candidate collusion or whatever you might want to call it.  I don't know that an Edwards endorsement would "hurt" Obama as much as it might "hurt" Clinton in NC, since it's what is "expected" down here.

  •  Encouraging news, but is PPP accurate/reliable? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemocraticLuntz

    ... In the end, the only polls I really trust are actual vote results. That said, I am glad to hear that this particular poll shows Obama's support among whites up from where it was a week ago. It's just that I am still as skeptical when I see numbers that benefit my candidate as when they hurt him.

    •  I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

      They've done mostly southern races where everyone has missed by a fair margin (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama,etc). But they also recently polled Pennsylvania and had Clinton up +26, far more than other pollster.

      "A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves."--Edward R. Murrow

      by Scarce on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 11:24:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  North Carolina: John Edwards (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    daveweigel

    Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum.

    Case closed.

  •  LOL - thought this was a basketball diary n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thisniss

    Suburbia is where the developer bulldozes out the trees, then names the streets after them. -Bill Vaughan

    by Blue Orb on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 11:13:03 AM PDT

  •  Highly, highly doubtful (0+ / 0-)

    A week ago PPP had North Carolina pegged as

    PPP (D) 03/17 - 03/17 521 LV 44 43 Obama +1.0

    "A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves."--Edward R. Murrow

    by Scarce on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 11:14:35 AM PDT

    •  Look at the whole record, though... (0+ / 0-)

      06Feb (PPP): Obama +2
      12Feb (SUSA): Obama +10
      20Feb (Elon): Obama +14
      21Feb (CITO): Obama +14
      03Mar (PPP): Obama +4
      06Mar (Ras): Obama +7
      09Mar (SUSA): Obama +8
      17Mar (PPP): Obama +1
      24Mar (PPP): Obama +21

      PPP's generally underestimated Obama's support, both in relation to other polls in NC and in other contests in the cycle (see examples upthread).  Given that Obama's actually started campaigning pretty heavily in NC (he had some high profile events there last week) I could easily believe a 17 point lead, within the poll's MoE.

      "I never understand what [Greenspan]'s saying." --Hillary Clinton, 24Mar08

      by Rorgg on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 11:32:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama winning among women by 20pts? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thisniss

    This stuff is pretty funny.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves."--Edward R. Murrow

    by Scarce on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 11:31:21 AM PDT

    •  Not unbelievable (0+ / 0-)

      He won the female vote by 21 points in Virginia, where blacks made up about as much of the vote as they'll make up in NC. Less, actually - 29 there, could be 38 here.

      •  That would still mean a virtual tie (0+ / 0-)

        ..among white women voters, or even Obama leading a by a few pts. I just don't see how that is possible right now.

        "A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves."--Edward R. Murrow

        by Scarce on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:14:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  in the last Survey USA poll, Obama was leading (0+ / 0-)

          among women in NC.  It's within the moe, but they still show a 3% lead for Obama amongst women voters.  This has been consistent in polling since Edwards dropped out.  It shouldn't be that surprising - it's not just the African-American vote; NC is a college state (all my students, male and female, are Obama supporters).

  •  Spring Break, anyone? (0+ / 0-)

    While I generally take the position that PPP polls are little more than a source of amusement or a view into the mind of "the enemy," I thought their last NC poll had an extra complication that might make it extra worthless.  You see, when I looked at that last PPP poll, I was out of the state on spring break, and it occurred to me that it might be difficult to poll accurately when the entire University of North Carolina system, and many of the other NC colleges were on spring break.  

    I guess this is a factor in other places, too (PA has a lot of colleges, I know), but NC has certain population centers (e.g., "The Triangle" - or "The Research Triangle") in which academic populations play a huge role.  I live in Chapel Hill, for example, and our town's population decreases by about a third for one week every March. (If you count the time people just spend inside watching basketball, then you could also probably add a week where 75% of our town disappears).

    Anyway, I don't know if anyone has talked about this much, or if pollsters consider spring breaking as they are working through their projections.  But we are in the midst of it, and we're in a longer primary season than we've seen in many years, so it feels like something worth noting.  The 20 point jump in PPP's numbers could definitely reflect the during/after University spring break polling, at least as much as any larger "trend" in North Carolina.

    But PPP still sucks.

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