The near-certainty of an Obama nomination, and the recent Jeremiah Wright faux-outrage, have both prompted some of my Republican friends to start trumpeting their newfound confidence in their general election prospects.
To which I say, good for you guys! If I were a Republican, I wouldn’t be worried either!
I wouldn’t worry about the fundamentals...
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans is lower than it’s been in 16 years, or that when you include Independents who lean toward one party or another, Democrats have a 51-37 advantage from the get-go. I wouldn’t worry that in the 12 states that were close in the last election, Democrats now have a 38-27 lead in party ID, when in 2004 those numbers were roughly equal. I wouldn’t worry about the fact that in states John Kerry won by 5 points or more, the party ID gap has grown from 10 points to 18 points, or that as Congressional Quarterly reports today, "among key red states, there has been a marked falloff in Republican versus Democratic identification." General elections never reflect the underlying fundamentals.
I wouldn’t worry about the enthusiasm gap between the two parties, and I really wouldn’t worry about the fact that the candidate on the Democratic side who is about to clinch the nomination is the same candidate bringing in the vast majority of new voters in either party. Everyone knows that new voters don’t vote.
And I certainly wouldn’t worry about the fact that the largest generation in American history is now of voting age, and appears poised to flex their muscles at the voting booth for the very first time in 2008, and that they favor Barack Obama by large margins in every poll. Electoral realignments usually don’t coincide with massive generational shifts.
I wouldn’t worry about the issues...
I also wouldn’t worry about the fact that the current Republican president is as unpopular as Richard Nixon, or that John McCain has decided to make George Bush’s most unpopular blunder, the war in Iraq, the centerpiece of his campaign. People don’t really vote on foreign policy issues.
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that John McCain has repeatedly confused the difference between the Sunni and Shia tribes in Iraq, and that there is video of Joe Lieberman having to correct McCain in the middle of a press conference on this issue. No one’s ever been held accountable for something they said on camera once, and what’s more, there’s no danger of McCain, who is vying to be the oldest man ever elected president, being perceived as forgetful.
I wouldn’t worry about John McCain’s statement this year that "the issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should." People don’t really vote on economic issues.
I wouldn’t worry about McCain’s comments on the mortgage and credit crisis today, when he stood by his principle that government shouldn’t get involved (other than to convene meetings of the nation’s top mortgage lenders and accounting professionals, and urge them to come up with something), stubbornly declaring, "It is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers." No Republican has ever lost an election in the midst of a financial meltdown running on the principle that the crisis was none of the government’s business.
I wouldn’t worry about fundraising...
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that John McCain raised $11 million in the month of February, and that Barack Obama raised $55 million, literally 5 times as much money. Nobody, in the history of American politics, has ever received any advantage by outspending their opponent by a factor of 5 to 1.
I wouldn’t worry about the Republican base...
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that the populist Republican base, as typified by Rush Limbaugh, Lou Dobbs and Ann Coulter, has been openly disdainful of John McCain. He can win without strong support from the angry white populists.
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that the economic Republican base, as typified by Grover Norquist and the Club For Growth, has been openly disdainful of John McCain. He can win without strong support from economic conservatives.
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that the evangelical Republican base, as typified by Pat Robertson and James Dobson, has been openly disdainful of John McCain. He can win without strong support from evangelical Republicans.
I wouldn’t worry about legal troubles...
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that John McCain is in legal jeopardy whether or not he decides to opt into the public financing system (if he opts in, he’s already busted the spending cap for the primary season, and if he opts out, he faces charges of potentially defrauding a bank by using federal matching funds as collateral for a multimillion dollar loan).
I wouldn’t worry about any questions related to honesty or integrity...
I wouldn’t worry about the fact that John McCain has come out in favor of the Bush tax cuts even though he opposed them in the past, or that he now wants to overturn Roe v. Wade even though he opposed overturning it in the past, or that he now supports some forms of government-sponsored torture even though he opposed government torture in the past. It’s not as if McCain is relying on voter’s perceptions of his honesty and integrity. What’s more, McCain is a hero of the Vietnam war, and no Vietnam war hero has ever been vulnerable to charges of "flip-flopping."
I wouldn’t worry about racial politics...
I wouldn’t worry about the pitfalls of running against Barack Obama as the first viable black candidate in American history, as the nominee of a party often perceived as being hostile to the interests of black Americans. It’s true that John McCain has categorically ruled out any campaign tactics that even hint at racial appeals, and has been forced to publicly apologize for the behavior of surrogates, staff members and supporters on a number of occasions, and that this pattern is likely to intensify as the Obama-McCain election heats up, and the spectacle of John McCain apologizing to Barack Obama on a once-a-week basis will most likely be one of the defining features of the campaign, but I wouldn’t worry about it. Everyone knows that when Republican politicians run campaigns solely on the issues, they win.
I wouldn’t worry about running against a candidate who has successfully branded himself as the candidate of the future...
I wouldn’t worry about Barack Obama’s current success at convincing voters that he is the candidate of the future. John McCain, who would be the oldest man ever elected president (and at 71, is a full 25 years older than Barack Obama), who is running on an economic and foreign policy platform that is virtually identical to George W. Bush, and whose strongest support comes from voters over 65, is not likely to be branded as the candidate of the past. And what’s more, it’s not as though voters are looking for a candidate who represents change this year.
In short, I wouldn’t worry.
If I were a Republican, I wouldn’t worry about the coming general election. If I were a Republican, I wouldn’t worry about the cold, hard realities on the ground. Disregarding facts would be second nature to me. If I were a Republican.