This primary season has been intense to say the least and I’m sure you sometimes ask yourself the same thing. When will this madness end?
When will Hillary end her hopeless crusade to win a nomination that is becoming more and more Huckabee-esque with each contest? Why won’t the superdelegates step in and end it? What is going to happen to Florida and Michigan? Can’t Reid, Pelosi, Gore, Dean, someone stop the bleeding? Are we really going to have to endure this ugly primary season until June or the convention?
Well, I believe the answer is that the super-delegates cannot do anything until the Pennsylvania primary is over. And I believe they will end this after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6th.
I also believe that the manner in which Florida and Michigan plays out is irrelevant.
Proof below:
Let’s look at the delegate numbers as they stand. All numbers are based on the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.
Below are figures for two different scenarios regarding Florida and Michigan:
- Florida and Michigan are not counted. In this case, 2024 delegates are needed to win.
- Michigan delegates are split 50/50 and Florida results are halved, netting 19 delegates for Hillary, instead of 38. If you want to count the states, I believe that this is the true compromise that will come to be. In this case, 2208 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
So this is where we stand, given each scenario.
You can argue about the likelihood of either scenario or the few other possibilities, but I don't think either will make any difference in the end. I think you will agree at the end.
Now, here are the best and worst case scenarios for Obama and Clinton in the upcoming primaries. (Note: I took all of the delegate estimates from this excellent diary by apabari. Big thanks for the great analysis!)
(Obviously, some of these estimates might be a little off. It's easy to adjust the numbers, however, in the end, I don't believe it will matter.)
Here are the hard numbers of how these projected results will shake out:
Time to give some meaning to these numbers:
The only way to end this contest and end Hillary's impossible quest for the nomination is for the superdelegates to endorse Obama and put him over the number needed to win. However, this cannot happen yet.
The charts below illustrate exactly when this can happen and what percentage of delegates will be needed to make it happen:
Only after Pennsylvania has voted and allocated their delegates will Obama have enough to win. But only if ALL of the remaining super delegates move to his side. Obviously, that is a big if. But for all of those out there wringing their hands, wondering why the super delegates won't just end this NOW, it's because they CAN'T.
Now 100% of the remaining superdelegates is a rather tall order and it's unlikely to happen. So let's look at May 6th. After North Carolina and Indiana vote, Obama will only need 75% of the undeclared super delegates to say, "Enough".
Even in his worst case scenario!
Hillary only passes the "100% remaining superdelegate" threshold on May 6th. (At that point, it will be more like 90%) But Obama would have to have an unthinkable meltdown for this to happen.
The other dynamic in play here that cannot be graphed are any defections from Hillary's superdelegate list. These would count as a net loss of 2 so they count twice as much and would bring the end that much sooner. While I don't expect more than a trickle of that to really start, I do believe that some super delegates that have endorsed Hillary will move to help make up the 75% needed to end this contest.
Also, unless my projections are way off the mark, notice that there is very little difference between the best and worst case scenarios for either candidate. Hillary does not catch Obama. Obama cannot stumble and lose his lead. Nor can Obama do phenomenally well and blow away Clinton. They simply must go through the next few primaries and get the pledged delegates allocated, regardless of the result.
Lastly, there is practically no difference in the two scenarios regarding Florida and Michigan. Regardless what you do with Michigan or Florida, it doesn't matter. Perhaps that's why the Obama camp has been so silent about the issue. They don't care either way because they are focusing on getting to the stage in the primaries where the superdelegates will just end it.
So we can hope that the superdelegates move en masse after Pennsylvania, but at the very least, I think it's an almost certainty that shortly after May 6th, this primary season will be over.
Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
Clinton will be forced to concede.
Sorry West Virginia and Oregon.