Jonathan Alter, one of my favorite KO regulars, wrote yesterday afternoon in a fairly speculative piece, that Democratic insiders have been discussing a future in the NY Governor's mansion for HRC if after PA, she realizes (like the rest of us have) that it just ain't gonna happen this time around.
Now, I'm all for her happily leaving the race, and giving her supporters the nugget of tasty goodness of a governorship somewhere, but my first instinct said, "naah. that's just something being floated by people who want her out..." And, maybe so, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense anyway. The following got my spidey-sense tingling:
Under the scenario sketched out by the insiders, serving two years as governor would give Clinton the executive experience to become the prohibitive favorite for the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination. Clinton believes that Barack Obama may well lose this year to John McCain, who would be 75 in 2012 and a possible one-term president. Clinton would arguably be better positioned to replace McCain in the White House as a governor than as a senator.
In a Keith-less KO last night, Jonathan discussed the implications of this possibility.
The underlying premise requires a fairly extraordinary set of events to unfold:
- The results in PA would have to be such Hillary would have to realize after PA that even with a win there didn't help her chances, and that Obama was going to take the nomination.
- More messy real life would have to be discovered and actually stick unpleasantly to David Paterson so he was forced to resign in the next few months.
OR
- HRC recognizes that 2010 (the natural end of Paterson's term) is soon enough to take a statehouse to parlay it into a White House. Regardless of how smoothly Paterson pulls off his "Yes, I have human flaws like the rest of you, but I can still do this job" persona, he would be a fairly low hurdle for her in 2010.
AND, the "uh-oh" point:
- HRC has to believe in her heart that McCain will beat Obama. (And, as Alter clarified, "might well lose" is how she has actually put it.)
Bill has apparently dismissed the idea out of hand, (as proper posturing would require him to), but Hillary is said to not be as dismissive. Now, while I think it could be Little Green Men crazy, here's why it has not completely pegged my bullshit-o-meter (not including the fact that Alter actually put it into print):
- HRC presumably has a subconscious, and it is presumably tapping her patiently on the shoulder and clearing its throat occasionally asking her consciousness to "just look around at the real world" for a second. If she listens to it she's going to start realizing she needs a way out that will save face. She is NOT going to want to be "the crazy Nader-like person who sank the Dem Party" by taking this to the convention.
- Guiliani is also being prodded to thinking about the NY Governorship, and I'm betting that sounds like a juicy fight for Hill.
- The Senate, where her co-workers are fleeing from her left and right right now, seems like it might not be a place where she can shine like she'd want to over the next few years.
- I think she's narcissist enough to believe that her people really won't vote for Obama and McCain really will win the Nat'l Election. I also think it's possible (although Alter backed off this point calling it "too Machiavellian") that it gives Hillary the rationale to not be so nice as she loses. While I think her subconscious might prod her into not taking down the democratic party at the convention, I can totally see her smilingly conceding the race after Pennsylvania while surreptitiously sticking her foot out and mumbling, "Have a nice trip...."
Chuck Todd came on after Jonathan and gave reasonable explanations as to why the Clinton's really wouldn't want Albany, including the quicksand of NY state politics, and said it would be shocking if she turned this way, but also covered his ass nicely by saying, "of course, we've been shocked before when she ran for Senate in NY, instead of Arkansas or Illinois..."
Just more gristle to chew on...