Final Update:Read the updates below. Donna Brazile gave the rule wrong on "This Week." The majority of Credential Committee membership is still up for grabs. However, her last quote is relevant -- why would 48 states who followed the rules change them for two states who did not?
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Donna Brazile made a great argument that Hillary Clinton's threat to take the contest all the way to the Credentials Committee in Colorado in August, isn't going to happen. This contest will be over by July 4th.
Today in the WaPost, Hillary Clinton said:
I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan. And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention -- that's what credentials committees are for.
Donna Brazile answered that threat, right quick, on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos". Quote, and numbers, below the fold.
The "Credentials Committee" threat is about whether or not the Democratic Convention Credential Committee will recognize the Florida and Michigan pledged delegates, who were stripped of their credentials because both states' Democratic parties decided to violate Democratic National Committee rules in holding early primaries. Clinton still ran in both states, and so carried the majority of delegates in both states, and she wants them recognized.
Donna Brazile, this morning on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" pointed out that, anyone with math skills can see that those delegates are not going to be recognized, because the credentials committee will be dominated by members from states won by Barak Obama.
Brazile : I think we have an exit strategy in the Democratic party to end the primary season on June 10th... that's the end of the primary season based on the rules, and after all this is about the rules.... So sometime before July 4th, I am clear that the superdelegates will break one way or another and this thing will end... Whoever is coming up with this new strategy is not looking at the map again. Howard Dean has already appointed 25 members [of the credentials committeee]. The states will send 3 persons, 3 people to the convention, on the credentials committee. Obama has won more states.
Stephanopoulos: Far more.
Brazile: Far more. So, do the math...
Stephanopoulos: This is an important point...You're saying unless there's some dramatic change, some dramatic Obama collapse, that Clinton can't win at the credentials committee.
Brazile: Forty-eight states complied with the rules. Why would they all of a sudden change the rules?
Let's count up where things stand right now, using the CNN delegate scorecard:
Obama has won: Iowa, South Carolina, Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah, Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Texas (caucuses), Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi.
Clinton has won: New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio, Texas (primary).
Clinton won Florida and Michigan, but as of now, those delegations are not recognized. I don't know how the Texas delegation will go, so: (1) ignoring Texas (sorry Texas), as of right now, Obama has 26 states, Clinton has 12.
Thus, the Credentials Committee has 25 chosen by the National Committee, 81 members chosen by states won by Obama, and 36 members chosen by states won by Clinton. Even if the DNC were a Clinton-biased organization (they're not) and so they stacked the committee, this is 81 votes vs. 61 votes.
So, Hillary's threat to take this to the Convention Credentials Committee won't change the outcome. It will just be Hillary damaging the Democratic Party.
Which the superdelegates -- most of whom can count just fine, thanks -- won't let her do.
Clinton can try to drag this out, but she won't win at the Credentials committee, and it is in the best interest of most of the superdelegates -- many of whom are in their own races, and so want a nominee as soon as possible -- to have a nominee. Once the delegates are counted, if Clinton can't win in the Credentials Committee, they will make their decisions public and final, so that this contest doesn't continue through July, August, September...
UPDATED, now with more Reality(tm): Ack! I went to the convention rules, published by the Democratic National Committee, and they state:
(Sec VII., A 1, under "Standing Committees on Platform, Rules and Credentials of the 2008 Deomcratic National Convention"):
A. Membership: Subject to Rule 20.C. of the Delegate Selection Rules, each standing committee
shall be composed of:
- Base: A base of 161 members, casting 158 votes, allocated to the states and territories in
accordance with the same distribution formula used to allocate delegates to the
Democratic National Convention.
Section B2 goes on to state they will be elected by each states delegation.
In other words Brazile's basic statement, that the Credentials Committee is made up of 3 members per state, is wrong. It's made up a delegation of 158 votes, allocated to each state in the same proportion as the pledged delegates are.
What does this change? It could change much; each state elects their own credential committee members; and Clinton won states with the most Electoral College votes. She just might have a majority on the Credential Committee right now. Update in a few after I do some more addition.
UPDATE II: As of right now (based on already resolved state primaries), from these states: New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Ohio: Clinton will have 61.44 votes on the Credentials Committee.
From these states: Iowa, South Carolina, Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Texas, Utah, Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Obama will have 70.22 votes on the credentials committee.
States I haven't counted in: Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota, Democrats Abroad, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, which make up 26.33 votes remaining.
Thus, there is a razor thin margin here, where indeed Clinton has more of a chance in a credentials fight than Donna Brazille's (incorrect) division of votes. With the 25 DNC members, and 26.33 members still to be elected in future primaries, a majority on the credentials committee can be had by either candidate.
The credentials committee will submit their majoity report to the convention floor, which will state who is credentialed and who is not. Further to the DNC rules (in the same document above, Sec VII, B, 2), a minority of the committee composed of only 20% of its membership may submit a minority report, which will be voted on at the convention floor, too.