Much like Texas the Delegate breakdown in PA is based on Democratic turnout in past election cycles. And, like Texas, this favors Obama. What we have seen in state after state is that there are all Black districts, much due to Rethug line drawing, which break heavily for Obama. Because Hillary has no constituency which breaks an entire district to her at an over 70% number, she is hurting. We also, in PA, have to add on 35 at large delegates, 20 PLEO, and 3 add-on delegates. We'll return to their breakdown later. I'm going to give Clinton a 10 point win, based on most of the recent polls, of 55-45... and run the district demographics as close to Ohio as I can.
I've adjusted off of Minvis's projections for a 10% split, and want to thank Minvis for starting this conversation -
http://www.mydd.com/... (Minvis' diary)
1st Robert Brady (D) 7
District 1 is 62% African American in the entire voting population. Amongst likely primary voters I'm estimating (once you drop out the 50% of White voters who are R or Indi's) that African American turnout makes up 73% of the total voters. This is also one of the Districts the Obama campaign had targeted for raising registration switches (A lot of Blacks were registered R's back in the 60's and 70's for local reasons). This district is likely going to won by Obama at a 65% rate. I actually think his total will be even higher than 65% here, because the district is extremely young with an average age of 31. However, he won't get up to the 6-1 level, The most likely breakdown is 5-2 Obama.
2nd Chaka Fattah (D) 9
District 2 is another heavily AA district, which is handily African America, and Obama has the Chaka Fattah endorsement. In the General this district is 66% AA. In the primary the AA turnout can reach as high as 80%. This is by far Obama's best district, where he will likely get over the 72% threshold. If AA's make up 76-77% of the turnout he will break the threshold. Count this as a 7-2 Obama break.
3rd Phil English (R) 5
This is `Ohio Country' where Clinton should win at a 60-65% rate... The numbers are not there, based on Ohio's exits, to get her up in the 72% range for a 4-1. It actually does not matter if she wins this district by 51% or 69%. Count on a 3-2 break for Clinton
4th Jason Altmire (D) 5
This district echoes English's district a bit, but as a sub it is a little better ground for Obama. However, that does not make up a difference because the 51-69 scenario is still in play. I'd guess a 57% win for Clinton. But regardless of how the % breakdown it will be a 3-2 Clinton district.
5th John Peterson (R) 4
This district is just Penn State district, and will be competitive. However, for something other than a 2-2 breakdown it would have to swing heavily toward one candidate or another. It is likely a 50-50 district. So we'll go with 2-2
6th Jim Gerlach (R) 6
This is one of the Philly Sub's and should be a Democratic District in general. It is hard to see this district going either way. There is a combination of older or working-class Clinton voters and young activists Obama backers. I'm going to go with 3-3.
7th Joe Sestak (D) 7
This is another Clinton district, which I've been campaigning in, she will not be able to get over 64% needed to get the 5-2 split... she rarely cracks the 64% among any demographic save Hispanics. What we are seeing play out is that if you cannot cross a 63% line amongst any demographic you cannot win a decisive delegate split. This is another 4-3 Clinton split.
8th Patrick Murphy (D) 7
I've also been working in this district, and it is a bit to the left of Sestak's. This will be the bell-weather district whereby you can judge the whole race. Patrick Murphy has been working hard here, and the war seems to be the issue of most importance. I imagine Obama is leading here y 4-5% currently. I'm calling an Obama 4-3 Split.
9th Bill Shuster (R) 3
Rural=Clinton. Won't even be worth the Obama folks competing for. 2-1 for Clinton.
10th Chris Carney (D) 4
Another district where Clinton will likely win. Many people here work in the Jersey or NY. Yet, still her lack of a 63% demographic yields a 2-2 Split.
11th Paul Kanjorski (D) 5
Clinton will need to get 70% for a decisive split... that will not happen. She does have the Kanjorski endorsement. It is hard to see a scenario (unless there is an Obama surges) where this district does not go 3-2 for Clinton.
12th John Murtha (D) 5
We know Murtha endorsed Clinton. However, sorry if this is getting repetitive, she will not break 70%. This district is full of conservative Democrats, and will break 3-2 for Clinton.
13th Allyson Schwartz (D) 7
Schwartz has endorsed Clinton, and I guess for lack of a better reason I'll say that will push Clinton over the top. This is, demographically, a 50-50 district. Will give it the 4-3 Break for Clinton.
14th Mike Doyle (D) 7
This is another hugely African America district with high new-registration numbers. It is not as heavy as district 1 and 2, so I'll stick at a 4-3 Obama split. But don't be surprised at a 5-2 Split.
15th Charlie Dent (R) 5
This is another swing district of the much-hated Charlie Dent... This is a hugely competitive district, which really could go either way. I have reason to favor either candidate. If the race is within 10% statewide look for Obama to win 3-2, if it is outside 12% for Clinton look for a 2-3 Clinton win. Based on recent polling I'll go with Obama 3-2.
16th Joe Pitts (R) 4
This may be Clinton's best district where she will push her margins right about 60%. Does she hit 62%? Until I see a poll which shows working men and women breaking for her at a 65% rate, I have to say no. A likely 2-2 Split.
17th Tim Holden (D) 4
Obama faces the Clinton problem here. He will win this district, but not at a 62% level. It will be a 2-2 split. If it isn't it will be a big night for Obama.
18th Tim Murphy (R) 5
The Demo's slightly favor Clinton in this district, which is likely to be close. It is a Pittsburg sub, which will likely break 3-2 for Clinton.
19th Todd Platts (R) 4
Obama will do well here, because of the D.C.-Baltimore region. However he won't break the 62% range. This will be a 2-2 split for neither.
So, the District by District breakdown goes for Obama at a 49-47 break. The at large split, at a 55-45% Clinton win, would be a 19-16 break for Clinton. Her PLEO split, as long as she is under 57%, will be 11-9. And, we can add one more delegate for the add-ons at 2-1.
The Conclusion then is that if Clinton wins by 10% statewide Obama would pick up 79 delegates while Clinton would pick up 82 delegates. So, in the most likely scenario Clinton nets 4 delegates. In her best scenario breaking 6, 10, 12, 16 to her and placing her above 57% nets her...while deflating Obama's AA district wins... nets her 17 delegates.
Best Case Clinton (15% win) = 16-17 delegate pick up
Most likely Case (10% win) = 3 delegate Clinton pick up
Best case Obama (5% Clinton win) = Obama wins 4 delegates.