For a race which would not be ranked among the 10 most competitive in the country, the New Jersey U.S. Senate race has been absolutely fascinating of late.
Firs, the Republicans' initial choice for the race, millionaire Anne Evans Estabrook, dropped out of the race after suffering a transient ischemic attack.
By the end of the month, the Republicans had found a...well, maybe not a suitable replacement, but a replacement, nonetheless, in businessman Andy Unanue.
This was a tremendous victory for hilarity, if not for the Republican Party. Our man Unanue was famed for such exploits as showing up drunk to work, and was ultimately sacked from his family business, Goya Foods (shocking, no?)
Undaunted, Unanue went into the nightclub business, though his baby AER Lounge didn't get the best of reviews:
Just when you thought the Meatpacking District couldn't handle another over-priced club-bar catering to hordes of pretentious Euro-trash, along comes AER.
Ouch.
So as of last week, things were looking pretty dark for Republicans in New Jersey, but they've had a double dose of good news lately. First, there is now a contested primary on the Democratic side, as Congressman Rob Andrews will forge a primary challenge against the 84-year-old Lautenberg:
Andrews’ chief of staff, Bill Caruso, told local media this week that the House member was mulling a challenge to Lautenberg. Upon word that he was considering a run earlier this week, the Democratic members of New Jersey’s congressional delegation rallied together to discourage him.
Those six House members also pledged to share a line on the ballot with Lautenberg in their districts. The state’s other senator, Robert Menendez , also a Democrat, is supporting Lautenberg as well.
Andrews, 50, a nine-term congressman, has long held aspirations for higher office. He narrowly lost a 1997 gubernatorial primary to Jim McGreevey and was later passed over for the Senate seat vacated in 2005 by Democrat Jon Corzine , who was elected governor. At that time, Corzine pledged Andrews his support if Lautenberg, 84, were to retire after this term.
Lautenberg would likely have coasted to reelection under normal circumstances, so a primary challenge can really only hurt Democrats. This is particularly true if Andrews makes an issue of Lautenberg's age and fitness to serve another term. Frankly, I suspect that is the only way he could beat Lautenberg, who holds a 35-point advantage in polling over Andrews, according to the DSCC.
The prospect of a centrist such as Andrews supplanting the reliably liberal Lautenberg isn't especially thrilling, but the idea of a contested primary is even less exciting now that the GOP appears to have found a credible candidate, biotech exec John Crowley:
Biotech millionaire John Crowley is now close to entering the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, after receiving calls from several GOP Senators, including presidential candidate John McCain, urging him to run, according to Republican sources.
Other sources said that Crowley spoke with one Republican Senate candidate, Andy Unanue, tonight and told him that he is now likely to run. Unanue has told some GOP leaders that he would withdraw from the race if Crowley gets in.
Crowley spoke at length today with Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), the Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who urged him to run and committed resources if he does. At least five other Republican Senators also reportedly lobbied Crowley, whose efforts to find a cure for a rare genetic disease that affects two of his three children has caused Republican leaders to view the political newcomer as a potentially strong Senate candidate.
I don't know that Crowley will be an exceptional candidate, but he isn't a joke like Unanue, and he's rich (which seems to fit the main criterion the NRSC has for New Jersey this year). And he can only benefit from Andrews' primary challenge. As I said, I think the only way Andrews can close the 35-point gap with Lautenberg is by making an issue of Lautenberg age. If he does so, and Lautenberg survives the primary, Crowley will have his dirty work done for him.
And if Andrews wins the primary, he will have his own problems, as the vast majority of the New Jersey Democratic establishment is supporting Lautenberg.
Lautenberg should be strongly favored to win both the primary and the general election. New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, and Lautenberg has won four elections in that time (including one over the dream candidate, Pete Dawkins).
Nevertheless, things look a lot better for the GOP than they did a week ago.