With polls tightening in Pennsylvania, Clinton has more immediate concerns than winning the state: she has to make it to primary day. Just four months ago, Clinton held a commanding 106 person lead among superdelegates. In February, that lead fell to 87 superdelegates. Obama has since closed the gap to 30. In my view, freshman House Members and Senators are key to Clinton's survival. They constitute roughly one-third of outstanding superdelegates in Congress - and half of them remain uncommitted.
(Crossposted from Our Republic)
As a freshman's first term is largely an extension of the campaign - a chance to define oneself as a legislator and representative - many have steered clear of an endorsement for fear of alienating their base. Rep. Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania recently expressed this sentiment.
Three months ago, everyone in the district was saying how great it was to have these strong candidates. Now whenever I'm at a rally or somewhere else, I hear people saying, 'I used to like Jason, but if he endorses the one I don't like, I'm not going to vote for him.'
Like other superdelegates, however, many in the freshman class have withheld endorsements on the promise of a Clinton blowout in Pennsylvania. When Obama emerged from the Wright controversy unscathed (by some accounts stronger) and started to make inroads in Pennsylvania, freshman Sen. Bob Casey abandoned his pledge of neutrality and endorsed Obama. Sen. Amy Klobuchar did the same shortly thereafter. Should white working-class favorites like freshman Sen. Jim Webb and freshman Rep. Heath Shuler come out in support of Obama, Clinton will begin hemorrhaging superdelegates.
Unless Clinton can bring the numbers back to blowout range, there is no guarantee that she will be a viable candidate when Pennsylvanians head to the polls.