The contest for the Democratic nomination is over. No doubt the media will spend the next several weeks obsessing upon how close Barack Obama will come to beating Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and how badly he will beat her in North Carolina. But make no mistake, this thing is over. You can stick a fork in the candidacy of Hillary Clinton and strap it on for the general election. Here is a countdown of the top reasons.
NUMBER #10: THE DELEGATE MATH
No matter how she and her campaign try to spin it Hillary Clinton will not catch Barack Obama's 160+ lead in elected delegates. This has always been Obama's meta-argument, and for good reason. The proposition that the one who wins the most delegates in the various Democratic Party primaries and caucuses should be the presidential nominee of The Democratic Party is a convincing one that makes sense.
Every person who wants to see the Democrats win in November be they superdelegate or average-Joe voter knows this simple fact. It would be suicidal for the Democratic Party to dump the elected delegate winner, particulary an African-American with JFK-like charisma whose candidacy has inspired millions of young people to participate in the political process for the first time in their lives. Furthermore, given our nation's racial history, for the Democratic Party to be seen as snatching away the prize that Obama has earned would irreparably harm the party's standing with its most reliable constituency and lead to certain defeat in November.
NUMBER #9: OBAMA'S GRACE UNDER FIRE
The overwhelming majority of Democrats believe that Barack Obama has skillfully handled the the controversy surrounding America's viewing of that endless loop of the most offensive things ever said by the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Never mind that nothing Rev. Wright said is outside the tradition of the black church and had pretty much already been said by Martin Luther King Jr, whose memory we honor this weekend on the 40th anniversary of his assassination. Still, this is the type of thing that would fatally kill off most presidential campaigns. Instead, Obama's Philadelphia speech on race inspired millions of progressive-minded voters regardless of race, age or gender.
The consistency of Barack Obama's message and demeanor has remained steady and consistent, whether trailing in the national polls by 20 points in December or winning the nomination by amassing the magical number of total delegates in May or June. Barack Obama has refrained from gloating or getting dragged down into the dirty mud-wrestling of old style politics. He may not have passed Hillary's 3AM Commander-in-Chief test, but he hasn't been hit too badly by the "kitchen sink" that the Clinton campaign has thrown at him. He has largely stayed above the fray while still being able to counter-punch effectively. And always there is Obama's universal and unifying message of hope and change, and the new life that he and his campaign have breathed into the Democratic Party in all fifty states and across the world.
NUMBER #8: HILLARY "UNDER FIRE" AND BILL'S BAD BEHAVIOR
By contrast the Clintons ran a churlish and mendacious campaign. Whether it was Hillary appearing indignant that anyone dare challenge her inevitabilty or Bill's purple-faced rages, it has all taken its toll. The Clntons now seem decidely unpresidential. The long and winding road that led us from Hillary's humanizing tears in New Hampshire, to Bill's race-baiting in South Carolina, to Hillary's claims of a big Super Tuesday victory when she in fact did not cut into Obama's delegate lead, to her hypocritical and contradictory statements re: NAFTA, the Florida and Michigan delegates, led finally to the mother-of-all whoppers: Hillary's "mis-remembering" her alleged experience of dodging sniper fire in Tuzla, Bosnia.
The footage of Hillary and Chelsea on the tarmac in Tuzla with that poetry-reading little girl crystallized negative perceptions of Hillary Clinton like nothing else. For the Clinton campaign, Hillary's shameless overstating of her experience was repeated first as tragedy, then as farce. The tale of the videotape kept making things worse, and though she attributed her misstatements to sleep deprivation, she seemed alert and wide awake in her shamrock scarf while reveling in the blarney of her imagined Bosnian bravery on St. Paddy's Day. It has gotten so bad that during her recent appearance on Jay Leno she felt compelled to joke about dodging sniper fire on the way to The Tonight Show's Burbank studios.
NUMBER #7: THE "STRATEGERY" OF THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN
The Obama campaign's strategy of maximizing delegate victories by out-organizing, out-smarting, and out-fundraising the other side has been remarkable. The Clinton campaign relied on stacking the deck with a host of Super Tuesday primaries in Hillary's strongest states, strong-arming superdelegates and state party officials, and emphasizing the importance of the "states" she won. Team Obama's disciplined delegate-calculating wizardry focused on running up the delegate score in states which Clinton neglected, battling hard to limit losses in the other states, and always focused on winning "delegates."
Also, as noted by Joe Trippi, the Obama campaign has perfected the model of an Internet-based campaign first developed by Howard Dean (and Markos)in 2004. Obama has revolutionized campaign fundraising by relying on small donations averaging about $100 from more than 1.2 million contributors. The Internet buzz, as epitomized by homemade viral videos like the infamous "Obama Girl", has strengthened a new political subculture outside the exists outside the mainsteam media. All of which underscores the fact that the excitement about the candidacy of Barack Obama isn't just hype.
NUMBER #6: SUPERDELEGATES ARE PEOPLE TOO
Superdelegates hunger for change and hope just like you and me. Yet for the most part they are timid political creatures who don't want to end their careers by sticking their neck out only to have it chopped off by the Clintons. Certainly, the myth and legend of the Clintons' ability to overcome any crisis and weather any storm, and exact revenge upon those they perceive as disloyal, resembles something out of a Terminator or Re-Animator movie.
Yet now, as the scenario of "inevitablity" is not the one originally envisioned by the Clintons, the superdelegates are eager to liberate themselves and support Obama......once they are absolutely sure it is safe to do so. Party officials may have to tip-toe up to the Clintons en masse hiding burlap bags behind their backs in order to bag Hillary's candidacy, but the outcome is no longer in doubt. Obama will be the nominee. The only remaining question is whether this will happen soon after the Pennsylvania Primary on April 22nd, the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6th, or after the last vote is cast in Puerto Rico on June 7th.
NUMBERS: #5 THROUGH #1
As the nomination is only half the battle, we will have to wait until we reach a similar point in the general election campaign. What lies ahead may be even more difficult than this grueling battle for the Democratic nomination. Yet we know that we have a candidate who has the intelligence, vision, character and disicpline to win and that we are now part of an historic movement to turn the page on the politics of the past and end the influence of entrenched Washinton special interests by enlisting the support of ordinary Americans. For most of us, this is the most important and most exciting political moment of our lives and we are humbled and honored to play our small part in this saga.