Given Lieberman's high-profile efforts on behalf of John McCain, I wondered how his constituents were taking it. So I had independent pollster Research 2000 reprise a poll I commissioned last year testing a rematch between Ned Lamont and Joe Lieberman. I found last year that buyer's remorse had set in. It's even worse this year.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/31-4/2. Regular voters. MoE 4% (9/10-12/2007 results)
If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?
All
Lamont (D) 51 (48)
Lieberman (I) 37 (40)
Schlesinger (R) 7 (9)
Democrats
Lamont (D) 74 (72)
Lieberman (I) 19 (25)
Schlesinger (R) 2 (3)
Republicans
Lamont (D) 4 (7)
Lieberman (I) 74 (69)
Schlesinger (R) 19 (24)
Independents
Lamont (D) 53 (49)
Lieberman (I) 36 (38)
Schlesinger (R) 6 (9)
Lieberman has shored up his support with Republicans, who clearly see him as one of their own. He has predictably lost ground among Democrats. But interestingly, he also lost the same amount of ground (six points) with independents.
Clearly, his whole "independent" schtick isn't playing well with real independent voters. I'll have more on this poll later today. The crosstabs are below the fold. Crosstabs for last year's poll can be found here. Unfortunately, there's no approve/disapprove numbers from last time since I forgot to ask for that data (I think it was my first poll ever commissioned).
CONNECTICUT POLL RESULTS - APRIL 2008
The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from March 31 through April 2, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURE:
Men 282 (48%)
Women 318 (52%)
Democrats 211 (35%)
Republicans 113 (19%)
Independents/Other 276 (46%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 192 (32%)
45-59 174 (29%)
60+ 126 (21%)
QUESTION: For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?
LIEBERMAN LAMONT SCHLESINGER
ALL 48% 43% 9%
MEN 51% 39% 10%
WOMEN 45% 47% 8%
DEMOCRATS 33% 64% 3%
REPUBLICANS 69% 10% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 41% 8%
18-29 40% 54% 6%
30-44 43% 48% 9%
45-59 53% 38% 9%
60+ 55% 34% 11%
QUESTION: If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?
LAMONT LIEBERMAN SCHLESINGER NOT SURE
ALL 51% 37% 7% 5%
MEN 47% 40% 9% 4%
WOMEN 55% 34% 5% 6%
DEMOCRATS 74% 19% 2% 5%
REPUBLICANS 4% 74% 19% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 53% 36% 6% 5%
18-29 67% 27% 2% 4%
30-44 55% 31% 8% 6%
45-59 44% 44% 7% 5%
60+ 41% 46% 9% 4%
QUESTION: If John McCain selected Joe Lieberman to be his Vice Presidential running mate, would it make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or would it have no real affect on your vote?
MORE LESS NO AFFECT
ALL 18% 31% 51%
MEN 21% 27% 52%
WOMEN 15% 35% 50%
DEMOCRATS 7% 41% 52%
REPUBLICANS 43% 12% 45%
INDEPENDENTS 16% 32% 52%
18-29 6% 42% 52%
30-44 15% 35% 50%
45-59 22% 27% 51%
60+ 27% 23% 50%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 47% 40% 13%
MEN 52% 37% 11%
WOMEN 42% 43% 15%
DEMOCRATS 40% 45% 15%
REPUBLICANS 62% 32% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 40% 14%
18-29 37% 52% 11%
30-44 45% 46% 9%
45-59 51% 34% 15%
60+ 52% 30% 18%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 21% 78% 1%
MEN 24% 75% 1%
WOMEN 18% 81% 1%
DEMOCRATS 5% 94% 1%
REPUBLICANS 68% 31% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 14% 85% 1%
18-29 13% 87% -
30-44 18% 81% 1%
45-59 24% 75% 1%
60+ 27% 72% 1%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dick Cheney is doing as Vice President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 15% 84% 1%
MEN 17% 82% 1%
WOMEN 13% 86% 1%
DEMOCRATS 2% 97% 1%
REPUBLICANS 60% 39% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 7% 92% 1%
18-29 4% 95% 1%
30-44 16% 83% 1%
45-59 18% 81% 1%
60+ 20% 79% 1%