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New Poll from PPP confirms that PA is a close race though Hillary is still the favored to win. Clinton retakes the lead after trailing Obama by 2 points in the previous PPP poll.

Clinton's rebound in the last week has come almost entirely from improving her standing with her core demographics of women, whites, and senior citizens. Her lead with woman went from 10 points to 16, with white voters it went from 11 to 17, and with voters over 65 from 16 to 21.

I think this result is more in line with other polls I have seen in recent days. That doesn't mean this poll is corrected but it does reflect what Rasmussen, Strategic Vision and Quinnipiac poll found in the race. The Obama camp must be happy with this result and if I was running his campaign, I would undertake another bus tour in the final week of the contest. Clearly,the reading from this poll and, many others, is that his bus tour was very successful.

A few interesting points about this PPP poll vs SurveyUSA poll. The PPP poll finds that black make up 17% of the electorate vs surveyUSA 14%. I happen to find this number confirming a point i made yesterday in this blog about what share of the electorate blacks are likely to be

Also, SurveyUSA has Hillary leading Obama in the Southeast region[The Philadelphia area and its surrounding] of the state a result I found unlikely[Good analysis about the PA polls from 411mania here].The new PPP confirms this suspicion was corrected and that, in the contrary, Obama is leading in this region rich with black and latte drinkers

New Strategic Vision also shows a close race:

Clinton 47%

Obama 42%

Hillary does better against John McCain.

Clinton 45%

McCain  42%

When it's Obama we have

McCain 48%

Obama  41%

So at this point of the race Obama is about 3-6% points behind and can make further inroads in the final two weeks.
Two other good analysis about PA polls from Pollster and TNR

Originally posted to Jr1886 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:59 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip jar (12+ / 0-)

    ARG is a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today. MB

    by Jr1886 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:59:09 AM PDT

  •  I'd jump for Joy if it's Clinton +5 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The media is savy to the math and demographics at this point and +5, considering the math ahead and the way the field set is an unmitigated disaster

    •  I disagree, strongly (6+ / 0-)

      I don't think the media is savvy to the reality of this at all.  You can find mention of it in the media if you're looking for it, but they aren't informing the public about where this race really is.  Most people are still being given the impression that the race is basically even or really close with Hillary needing to come from behind to catch up.

      To me, this looks exactly like the lead-up to TX and OH.  It went from Hillary needing to win by huge margins just to stay alive to her narrow non-win in Texas being a Triumph.  I'm not clear on why it's going to be any different in PA.  Because one or two pundits occasionally describe the math?  

      No way.  What is going to happen if Hillary wins PA even by 5% is that it will be portrayed as part of her 'comeback.'  How can the race possibly end if she's the one winning the big, important state of PA? they will say.  The Obama campaign will again be portrayed as clutching to fuzzy math in the face of defeat.  

      Any win in PA for Hillary is going to muddy the waters further and prolong this thing.  

      •  I don't think that's quite right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sun dog

        Remember that there was a lot of "the race could end in TX and OH" coming from just about everyone except the Obama camp. The Clintons were pushing it as hard as anyone. It was a gamble that worked for her.

        To the contrary, while a few people are speculating that the race could end in PA if Obama wins, nobody is expecting him to, and everyone is talking about the race going at least through NC and IN, and likely longer.

        There are a few reasons for that, including the fecklessness of the media, but here's one that hasn't really been examined. Some commentators have looked at the primary as a conflict between momentum and demographics. That is, it seemed early on that the candidates won the races they were going to win vis a vis demographics, but previous results didn't really affect future results. Then, when Obama started sweeping after Super Tuesday, there was the question of whether momentum was starting to happen after all. TX and OH would be the big test, since demographically, they were Clinton states. Well, Clinton won them (yes she won the Texas primary--stop it), and it seemed once and for all that demographics were trumping momentum.

        Given that, people are no longer expecting Obama to win PA, but he should win NC, OR, MT, and SD, while Clinton wins KY, WV (and I suppose Guam and PR). IA is still a toss up, so I think it would really help Obama if he would win it--show he at least has some mini-momentum.

        Barack Obama will only become president if enough people pay attention, so pay attention, dammit!

        by JMS on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 10:41:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, we see some of it differently (0+ / 0-)

          You say people don't expect Obama to win PA but we're still more than ten days out.  That's the way it was with Texas.  No matter how much the professional pundits talk about it right now or how many kossaks come to understnd it, it won't change the way it's covered when the time comes.  

          And why do you shush people about Clinton winning Texas?  I find that to be kind of obnoxious really.  Just because that was the consensus way of reporting it doesn't make it true.  

          The Democratic race is a race for delegates.  The campaigns set up strategies to pick up the most delegates.  Saying that Obama winning that race isn't the same thing as winning Texas doesn't really make so much sense that people should be shushed for pointing it out.  

          Hillary got a lot of good press on March 4 and it was undeserved.  It allowed her to extend her shitty campaign, possibly for months, possibly to really hurt our chances at the White House in November.

          So no, I won't stop it.  Obama won Texas.  Hillary won the primary, Obama won the caucuses and the overall delegate battle.  The contest, overall was for delegates.  Hillary won a symbolic victory, Obama won the state.  

  •  I hate to say this...but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jonah in nyc, pat208

    there is an almost identical diary just a few 'doors' down.

    Its the delegates that count

    by Morgan Sandlin on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:02:34 AM PDT

  •  I saw it after I posted this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    savvyspy, radarlady

    and we still have divergent analysis so I leave this up for now and I put a bunch of links for political junkies in this one too.

    ARG is a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today. MB

    by Jr1886 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:06:53 AM PDT

  •  Expectations game is critical. (5+ / 0-)

    If expectations run away again, and Clinton manages to win by, say, 6 points, she (with a lot of help from the lazy-ass media) will declare a big come from behind victory.

    Seriously. She's only in the race today because she was able to call herself the Comeback Kid after underperforming in New Hampshire and Texas, but beating the most overblown expectations.

    Keep expectations low, have Obama do well enough, and the race is over.

    Overinflate expectations, have Obama do pretty well, and Clinton still declares herself a big winner and sticks around even longer.

    Wes Clark for VEEP!
    Obama/Clark: You want a side-order of Realignment to go with that Change?

    by pat208 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:10:46 AM PDT

    •  good pts and the media will believe it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pat208, radarlady, txdemfem

      but we have John Murtha on tape, he says Hillary will win by double digits. I know why the media talk about a close's damn good for business

      ARG is a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today. MB

      by Jr1886 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:13:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Excellent point! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        And let's all bookmark the Murtha clip, and run the hell out of it in the days leading up to the Primary itself!

        Wes Clark for VEEP!
        Obama/Clark: You want a side-order of Realignment to go with that Change?

        by pat208 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:17:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am going to look for this Murtha tape (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          he was on Hardball I think when he said Clinton will win by double digits. Anything less than 10% victory is a loss for the Clinton. Let's hope the media listen to John

          ARG is a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today. MB

          by Jr1886 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:26:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Good post. Insightful. Thanks.

  •  I think the reason it drifted back to Clinton is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    because neither candidate is campaigning there.  Pennsylvania is a "Clinton by default" state.  But notice that when they both campaign there vigorously, Obama gains ground.

    I just really hope he's planning either a Bus Tour II or a massive slate of rallies during the final week.

    He needs to visit Erie at least once - he's not polling badly there and he could improve his numbers.

    •  Expectations Favor Obama (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      txdemfem, GWboosebag, Mbuto


      Clinton has to prove that Obama cannot do well in PA. A loss by less than the margin in OH does that.

      Keep in mind, OH primary was open to independents and GOPers who favor Obama strongly. So if he does better than a 10 point loss, that is impressive.

      The PPP poll only shows Obama winning 74% of african americans, lets say that changed to 90%, a very likely scenario, and then the race is tied.

      What is clear is that undecided's in these states have favored Hillary over Obama. VA and WI were the exceptions to that.

      A loss by less than double digits would be good for Obama.

      •  But in Ohio... (0+ / 0-)

        the independents and GOPers broke evenly due to the Limbaugh effect.  Randi Rhodes stated on her show that in just Cuyahoga County alone there were 16,000 Republicans who showed up to vote for Clinton.  There could have been as many as 100,000 "Democrat for a day" voters who voted for Clinton just to mess with our primary.

        Luckily, there will not be that luxury for the GOPers this time around.  :)

    •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ssgbryan, ObamaManiac2008

      I believe another bus tour is planned, or definitely more PA time one way or another. But yeah, he moved on to IN this week (another bus tour!), so your point is a good one. Also, since there seemed to be Clinton rebounds in tightening races in TX/OH in the final week, I'm glad to see this happening now, with more time to reverse.

      Liberal parenting funnies at The Hausfrau Blog

      by jamfan on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:39:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No drift, a change of a couple points either way (0+ / 0-)

      is called statistical noise.  When looked at from a larger perspective of more than just one poll, the two are now locked in a close race with HRC having a slight edged based on inertia not momentum.

  •  John Murtha exact quote: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    democrattotheend, Sedi

    I think Hillary Clinton's going to win it by double- digit figure. No question in my mind about that.

    I can find a truncated version of it yet but still looking.

    ARG is a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today. MB

    by Jr1886 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:38:46 AM PDT

  •  Close is a win (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ssgbryan, kosophile, GWboosebag

    Clinton needs a bunch of blowouts to reduce Obama's lead in elected delegates.
    If she doesn't get one in PA, where else looks possible?

    "The three main issues in this campaign are Iraq, Iraq, and Iraq." -- Bill Foster

    by Frank Palmer on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:47:28 AM PDT

    •  Correct and even a 10-12 point win leaves HRC (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      further behind. She basically needs to win everywhere by 20+ points to catch up, which she won't be able to do.

      She's a dead woman ducking and dodging sniper fire, um, I mean, a dead woman walking.

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