I posted a diary late last night that dealt with how Hispanics / Latinos would be loyal to either Democratic candidate that takes the tops spot come November. With Obama ahead in every category and one step away from locking up the nomination (in the medias mind, mathematically he’s already locked it up) much as been discussed if he could carry some of Hillary’s support in November.
this was cross posted on ourhispanicvoices.com
One big question has been can he [Obama] carry the so called "Big States," an argument the Clinton camp has tried to make with little success. When you look at the traditional Democratic strongholds of New York and Californina, you say, No brainer, Obama will carry those easy. That argument is true, and we now have some hard numbers to look at.
Along with the Politico article I mentioned in my diary yesterday, I came across this piece on Media Matters, which corrected a Wall Street Journal piece in which they stated that "McCain's appeal to Hispanics is central to his strategy in the state -- especially if the Democratic nominee is Sen. (Barack) Obama." This is an argument that holds no water.
Media Matters referred to two polls conducted in March that show McCain having very little support in California among the Hispanic community.
In a SurveyUSA California poll conducted March 14-16, Obama led McCain among registered Hispanic voters 62 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton led McCain 67 percent to 24 percent. In a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted March 11-18, likely Hispanic voters favored Obama over McCain 70 percent to 20 percent, and supported Clinton over McCain 74 percent to 18 percent.
This notion that McCain can win the Hispanic / Latino vote is silly. Perhaps it would have been a valid argument pre 2006, but Republicans have pushed away the Hispanic vote by making them a central political issue that we (Hispanics/Legal Voting ones) have not forgotten. Perhaps this is an attempt by him to lay claim to the demographic as Clinton did very successfully against Obama. The best reasons the media could come up with for the strong support is "because they know the Clinton name," Other than that, policies and actions held little weight behind the demographics strong support of Clinton. She was able to claim the demographic and they followed her to the polls, but now that people have learned more about Senator Obama, polling has moved in his favor come November.
These poll numbers show three things, Obama can carry the Hispanic vote commandingly, he can win the big states, and the media myth of the Black-Brown divide has been tossed out the window.
Another Self Plug. I ,re-launched my blog two days ago modeled after the great D-Kos. Feel free to contribute your voice and opinions.