John McCain can't (or more accurately won't) win California in November. Politico has an article up today suggesting that he can, but he can't. Let's take a look at a couple of the points covered in the article before hitting the real reason.
1) He's a moderate.
He is strong on the environment, he talks about low taxes and ending waste, he retains a somewhat maverick image, and he could be popular with independents.
He may be a maverick, but he's not really a moderate. He's not exactly George W. Bush, but he's a solid conservative. A smart campaign can hit him with the issues in such a way as to highlight this fact to the voters. McCain's support is broad, but shallow. If the Democrats can force him either way, he's going to lose moderate or conservative voters.
2) Drivers licenses for illegal immigrants
Obama favors giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. McCain opposes it, and this could give McCain the state. Giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants is unpopular in California.
There is also the issue of how unpopular Obama is with Hispanics.
Those two opportunities for McCain are mutually exclusive. Taking a hard line on immigration will hurt him with Latino voters. And California is too much a stretch to go red to afford to lose on either side.
But the real reason McCain can't win in California in November? Money. California is a large state, both geographically and population-wise, with many media markets. It is also one of the most expensive states in U.S. For the cost of running a competitive campaign in California, McCain could run competitive campaigns in several states, states he will have a much greater chance of actually winning. Running in California is a risky proposition - McCain runs the risk of sinking millions of dollars into campaigning there and walking away without a single electoral vote.
McCain just does not have the money to take that kind of risk. Obama (or Hillary), on the other hand, does. Obama will be able to defend any attack from McCain in California with equal advertising dollars. He will also be able to take the offensive and force McCain to defend himself in large, traditionally red states like North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia. Obama will have the money to define the battlefields, and California will not be one of them.