This is the second part in an ongoing series about the political landscape in Nebraska. Part I discussed the 2nd Congressional District, "Obamaha."
The First Congressional District contains the state capitol of Lincoln and Eastern Nebraska. It is represented by two-term Republican incumbent Jeff Fortenberry, who is being challenged by Iraq veteran Max Yashirin. This diary will examine the demographics of the district, and the results of the 2004 and 2006 elections to determine the landscape for 2008.
District Profile (CQ)
NE-01:
Over 65: 13.4%
White: 91%
Hispanic: 4%
White Collar: 57.7%
Blue Collar: 27.3%
Bachelor's Degree: 24%
Civilian Veterans: 54,866
Median Income: 40,021
- Bush 59% Gore 36%
- Bush 63% Kerry 36%
- Fortenberry 54.2% Connealy 43%
- Fortenberry 58.4% Moul 41.6%
Registered Voters:
181,300 Republican 48.2%
130,675 Democratic 34.7%
61,443 Nonpartisan 16.3%
Caucus Results
Hillary Clinton 5,288 34.3%
Barack Obama 10,041 65.1%
Lancaster County (Lincoln)
Registered Voters in Lincoln:
64,430 Republican 42.3%
58,678 Democratic 38.5%
27,524 Nonpartisan 18.1%
Total Registered Voters:
74,085 Republican 43.2%
64,751 Democratic 37.8%
30,624 Nonpartisan 17.9%
- Bush 51.8% Gore 41.7% Nader 5.8%
- Bush 56.1% Kerry 42.4%
- Fortenberry 49.2% Connealy 47.0% Larrick 3.7%
- Fortenberry 52.6% Moul 47.2%
- Nelson 69.8% Ricketts 29.3%
Lincoln is the largest city in the first district, and despite the slight Republican advantage in voter registration, tends to lean Democratic. It contains the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, a significant base of young voters and Democrats. Since Mike Johanns left office to run for governor, every mayor of Lincoln has been a Democrat. In order for a Democrat to win the first district, he or she has to win Lancaster County. As we'll see below, the votes that the Democratic candidate gets in Lincoln are going to be needed to cushion the blow from the roughest parts of the district.
Madison County (Norfolk)
Registered Voters:
12,944 Republican 60.0%
5,433 Democratic 25.2%
3,043 Nonpartisan 14.1%
- Bush 77.9% Kerry 20.8%
- Fortenberry 62.6% Connealy 35.9%
- Fortenberry 70.8% Moul 29.2%
- Nelson 54.8% Ricketts 45.2%
Yes. You read that correctly. Kerry barely managed 20% of the vote in Madison County in 2004. This is the deepest of red territory. When Democrats think about competing in the First Congressional District, it's Madison County that gives them nightmares. Holding a Republican to their base total of 60% would be the best we can hope for here, anything more is gravy.
Dodge County (Fremont)
11,478 Republican 52.0%
6,990 Democratic 31.6%
3,471 Nonpartisan 15.7%
- Bush 66% Kerry 33%
- Fortenberry 58% Connealy 40%
- Fortenberry 60% Moul 40%
- Nelson 67% Ricketts 33%
Dodge County performed moderately better for Republicans than their district-wide numbers. A Democrat has to do better than 40% in this county to win district-wide. That means picking up a significant number of independents and Republicans.
Northeast Nebraska
This is an area of Democratic strength, containing the Omaha and Winnebago Indian Reservations, and the only county that voted for John Kerry in the 2004 Elections.
Burt County
Registered Voters:
2,810 Republican 51.3%
1,848 Democratic 33.8%
808 Nonpartisan 14.8%
- Bush 64% Kerry 35%
- Connealy 63% Fortenberry 36%
- Moul 54% Fortenberry 46%
- Nelson 69% Ricketts 31%
So, I'm guessing you're thoroughly confused. How does a majority Republican county vote for three different Democrats in two cycles for federal office? Connealy can be explained away - it's his home county. Nelson just destroyed Ricketts throughout the state, there wasn't a single county in the first or second district that Ricketts carried. But Maxine Moul? She was endorsed by EMILY's List. Looking at the raw numbers, it's apparent that Democrats in Burt County just get to the polls in better numbers than Republicans, despite being outnumbered.
Thurston County
Registered Voters:
2,661 Democratic 58.6%
1,353 Republican 29.8%
494 Nonpartisan 10.9%
- Kerry 51% Bush 48%
- Connealy 52% Fortenberry 47%
- Fortenberry 53% Moul 47%
- Nelson 74% Ricketts 26%
A majority Democratic county. These are among the rarest finds in Nebraska, so when you see one you must take full advantage. John Kerry managed a majority in Thurston County, home of the Omaha and Winnebago Indian Reservations. To win in the first district, a Democrat will need to run up the score here, grabbing 60% or more of the vote.
Dakota County (South Sioux City)
Registered Voters:
4,395 Democratic 41.2%
4,005 Republican 37.5%
2,241 Nonpartisan 21.0%
- Bush 53% Kerry 46%
- Fortenberry 53% Connealy 46%
- Fortenberry 55% Moul 45%
- Nelson 69% Ricketts 31%
Along with Lancaster County, this is a major county that is favorable terrain for Democrats. Favorable is of course a relative term, but, again, we're looking at the areas a Democrat has to perform well in order to win. This is without a doubt one of them. More registered Democrats than Republicans, and a relatively low vote for Bush in 2004. It has the added benefit of sharing a media market with Sioux City, Iowa.
Southeast Nebraska
A familiar tune: Southeast Nebraska is Republican country.
Cass County (Plattsmouth)
Registered Voters:
8,642 Republican 49.0%
5,489 Democratic 31.1%
3,374 Nonpartisan 19.1%
- Bush 67% Kerry 32%
- Fortenberry 60% Connealy 37%
- Fortenberry 62% Moul 38%
- Nelson 63% Ricketts 37%
Otoe County (Nebraska City)
5,812 Republican 51.6%
3,496 Democratic 31.0%
1,922 Nonpartisan 17.1%
- Bush 68% Kerry 31%
- Fortenberry 60% Connealy 38%
- Fortenberry 61% Moul 39%
- Nelson 63% Ricketts 37%
Sarpy County (Gretna)
We covered Sarpy County extensively in the last section. This is the largely rural half of that county that is located in the 1st District. It's possible that it's even more Republican than the eastern half of the county, which contains Offutt Air Force Base.
You start to get a picture right now of just how hard it is for a Democrat to win in this district. Most of the Southeast Nebraska counties are just like these. The only strengths for a Democrat running in the first lie in Northeast Nebraska and Lincoln. In order to win, then, a Democrat has to cut the margins in Republican strongholds in southeast Nebraska, while building up big leads in Lancaster County and Northeast Nebraska.
It's not impossible, but it is extraordinarily difficult.
The polling suggests that Obama could win this district, but the hard numbers demonstrate just how much of an uphill battle that will be. But we've seen tough fights before in Nebraska, and Republicans in this state have shown a willingness to vote for Democrats. Max Yashirin, a Marine veteran who served in Iraq, may be the type of candidate that can win over Republicans and independents. Bob Kerrey's endorsement certainly doesn't hurt.
We've seen how if a candidate engages voters and works hard for their votes, he can close that gap. Scott Kleeb did it in the heavily Republican 3rd District (which we will cover in Part III). Ben Nelson and Bob Kerrey both did it very well. We may not get the electoral vote here, but our downballot candidates might be able to make up some real ground.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading.
Please consider a donation to 1st CD candidate Max Yashirin.