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All polls of likely voters*:

Quinnipiac 4/9-13. MoE 2.1% (4/3-6 results)

Clinton 50 (50)
Obama 44 (44)

SurveyUSA 4/12-14. MoE 3.9% (4/5-7 results)

Clinton 54 (56)
Obama 40 (38)

Rasmussen 4/14. MoE 4.0% (4/7 results)

Clinton 50 (48)
Obama 41 (43)

Susquehanna(pdf) 4/6-10. MoE 4.4% (3/5-10 results)

Clinton 40 (45)
Obama 37 (31)

Of the three polls conducted after the flap about Obama's comments about the rational voting behavior of people in economically neglected communities, there's almost no change.  One poll has a 4 point swing to Obama, another a 4 point swing to Clinton (both within the MoE), and the third has results identical to the previous survey.  

It's possible that Clinton hammering Obama with a concerted ad campaign over his remarks about economically depressed small towns will hurt him.  But it's also possible all that hammering with just give Clinton a swollen thumb.  

The polls were stabilizing last week, and now there's no discernible movement.  The race has tightened dramatically since a month ago, when most polls showed Clinton with a 10-20 point lead.  But now things appear locked in.  The debate could shake something loose, as might some last minute development, the way the NAFTA thing did against Obama in Ohio.  But short of some big development, this race looks like it will come down to GOTV.  Clinton has the clear advantage going in, and should be considered the favorite, but Obama's close enough that it's not inconceivable that he could pull off a major upset.  

*ARG is excluded from this list because I don't trust them.  I excluded them from my last polling roundup when they had the race tied, so it's not a matter of cherry picking, I just don't trust them.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:22 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Cue gnashing of corporate media teeth... (18+ / 0-)

    This message has not been approved by the corporate media.

    by jre2k8 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:23:18 AM PDT

    •  Do you Remember Wisconsin? (7+ / 0-)

      the stage is set for a major backlash and a huge upset

      Obama leads in votes, states, pledged delegates and small donors... Hillary leads in party insiders and people not paying attention

      by kubla000 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:24:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Living in PA, I will be delighted (7+ / 0-)

        if Obama only loses by single digits.

        Hillary has some strong support here as well as having most of her superdelegates from either here or NY. But Obama also have strong support here.

        I am hoping it will be close.

        This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

        by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:36:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Where in PA do you live? (0+ / 0-)

          And do you have any anecdotal evidence? Have you gone canvassing at all?

          "There's not a liberal America and a conservative America; THERE'S THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA." OBAMA '08

          by democrattotheend on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:37:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am here in Central PA, a lot of older women (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            but then again, many of them are Republican and are not voting for Clinton or Obama. I live in a red county but there are quite a few older women for Clinton whom I have spoken too. But at the college, most of the professors and students seem to be for Obama. This is from doing some calls and also talking to a friend who is a canvasser for Obama.

            This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

            by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:35:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  New book----'What's the Matter with (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jre2k8, Nonconformist, LogicaLizE


          •  I think Obama answered that question (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Too bitter.. ahem.

          •  Mika & Chuck Todd On MSNBC (6+ / 0-)

            They were discussing the recent polls that show no traction in PA for Clinton on the "bitter" episode. They seemed disappointed and were almost hopeful that things could change in the next round of polls.

            Well I've been from Tucson to Tucumcari... Tehachapi to Tonopah--Lowell George

            by frandor55 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:54:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Understandable but not admirable (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacrelicious, wishingwell, Junah

              I like both of them.  However they, like all obsessed campaign watchers, predict future results based on their experience and expertise.  Here, they thought that there would be an immediate and pronounced dip in Obama's #s.  The fact that it didn't happen...well it hurt their egos.  

              So, they are personally disappointed in their inaccurate prediction.  Becoming a public cheerleader and rooting for a change in the polls to support your own conclusions...well...well...not good.

              Maybe there will be some movement later in the week, but I think the MSM obsession over this subject has clouded their judgment.  

              Or maybe the MSM obsession with this will become a self fulfilling prophesy.  Time will tell.  

              My sister lives in the Philly burbs.  She doesn't know anyone who has changed his or her mind since this "bitter" flap began.

              •  why is it that these pundits can never say... (0+ / 0-)

                something like "its hard to say what impact this may have".  Are they paid to place a bet?  Do they really think they know?  Why would they think they are more in touch than the candidates themselves?

                •  Try watching Countdown (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  That's pretty much what Keith and all his pundits have been saying, "it's too soon to know what kind of an affect this will have on Obama's campaign".  They did say, though, that they thought it was "much ado about nothing", and it looks like they may be right.

            •  Mika needs some backbone----she's too easily (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              pundit, sacrelicious, Nonconformist

              swayed. I'm about done searching for anyone with a conscience and a brain on the teevee---beyond Keith.  We have a big drought in the news area of people with truth as a conviction.

          •  at least PA is a blue state (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            We threw Santorum overboard and Casey squashed him like a bug.

            We have not voted for a Republican for 20 years.

            So PA just has a primary problem named Hillary but other than that, we are a blue state.

            This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

            by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:36:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Losing by single digits is a victory? (0+ / 1-)
          Recommended by:
          Hidden by:

          Save us from victories like that in November!

          Obama has had more than a month now to win over PA voters. He has the support of Pennsylvania's Democratic senator so it's not like he doesn't have any establishment support of his own. He's far outraised Hillary in money. And it's not like Hillary hasn't made a few gaffes of her own in the past few weeks (Tuzla anyone?) Why, after all this, can't he close the deal with Democratic voters?

          Because the polls clearly show that he hasn't closed the deal. Three polls out today and last evening (Survey USA, Quinnipiac and Rasmussen) show Hillary, on average, with nearly a double digit margin.

          And if Obama can't close the deal with Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, how is he supposed to win in November with all voters casting ballots?

          •  "Winning isn't everything - it's the only thing!" (0+ / 0-)
          •  How is any candidate in a contested primary (7+ / 0-)

            supposed to win in a general election?  I'm sorry, but you can't extrapolate primary results to a general election.  They're not the same thing.

            A single-digit loss in PA is a victory for Obama because Hillary won't gain enough delegates to make a difference.  This is a race about delegates.  He has more.  He'll still have more after PA.

            Self-criticism is the secret weapon of democracy. ~ Adlai E. Stevenson

            by writerswrite on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:18:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I guess (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B, jre2k8, hws, Nonconformist, Junah

            By your logic, if Hillary were the Dem nominee then she would lose Illinois, Missouri, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine and Maryland.

            I mean, if she couldn't close the deal in those states in the primary, how would she win them in November?

            One Word of Truth Outweighs the Whole World

            by BrighidG on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:40:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Hide rating for sounding like a Clinton concern (0+ / 0-)


            Everything no problem!

            by gregoryjames on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:26:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Going from a 20+ point loss to 6 points (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            isn't any kind of a victory to you.  Boy, you sure have drunk Hillary's koolaid.  

            Hillary will shout from the rooftops if she wins by 6% saying what a tremendous victory that is.  No matter that it isn't going to help her one bit.  She can't win without beating Obama by huge margins and that isn't going to  happen.

          •  But Hillary has had a 20 pt lead and more here (0+ / 0-)

            She has something like 14 superdelegates here. This is a very strong state for her. It has been all along.
            You have to remember we are second only to Florida in Senior Citizen population.

            When many of our kids graduate from college, more and more are moving out of state to find good jobs.

            With a high senior population and PA seniors are very dependable, reliable voters; Obama started at a disadvantage. Considering where he started, yes he is doing well if he only loses the state by single digits. He will beat expectations if he does that.

            And delegates are what count. Keeping her delegate count is all that is needed.

            This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

            by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:13:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I'm hoping the people of Pa (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell, jre2k8, Cyber Kat

          Will put an end to this. They have the power to stop this whole thing and end hillary's campaign.If they all vote for Obama just to end the campaign we'll all be eternally grateful.
          This last weekend has sent me over the edge.

          "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." Sen Daniel Patrick Moynihan

          by atlliberal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:13:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The people of PA (4+ / 0-)

            ...will vote for whomever they feel is the better candidate.  It's not their job to end our long national nightmare, such as it is.  And it's not to say that, if they hand Hillary Clinton a victory, it doesn't mean they won't vote for Obama if he ends up the Democratic candidate in the GE.

            Really, aren't we all building Pennsylvania up into more than it is?  It's another primary, no different from any other except that it falls late in the season.  They'll vote how they vote, just like every other state thus far has, and when it's all added together with the superdelegates we'll have a nominee and a candidate and then the REAL campaign will begin.

            The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds, while the pessimist fears this is true. - James Branch Cabell

            by NessMonster on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:28:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You are right (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wishingwell, jre2k8, NessMonster

              I need a vacation. I simply can't believe how bad it has gotten that we have spent 4 days parsing misconstrued and admittedly badly chosen words when everyone knows that He was speaking the truth.

              We should be doing that to John McCain now. He's having a great time having Hillary do all his dirty workk for him and joking around eating Dunkin doughnuts with the media elite while calling Obama elitist.

               His economic plan is more of the same irresponsibility that got us into this mess (more tax cuts for everybody!) and we're still talking about "bittergate"?

              "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." Sen Daniel Patrick Moynihan

              by atlliberal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:34:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  When not if (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wishingwell, NessMonster

              it doesn't mean they won't vote for Obama when he ends up the Democratic candidate in the GE....

              Hillary can't win.  Why can't she and her followers just get that through their thick heads.  Do they really not see the damage they are doing?

    •  Oh no! We're irrelevant! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jre2k8, frandor55, Junah

      Surely someone has been noticing the trend this election season.

      Am I the only one who has been picking up on possible experimentation by the media?  I feel like they have on more than one occasion deliberately tried to make an impact on the polling, just to see if they still could.

      After they are satisfied that yes, they can still affect public opinion if they REALLY try, then they back off a bit.

    •  Big yawn? Not quite as TPM's Josh Marshall (0+ / 0-)

      points out today:

      "There's a big range in numbers, if you include yesterday's ARG poll. But what each shows is Clinton halting Obama's advance and taking back some of her lead."

      •  it'll all come out in the wash (5+ / 0-)

        I'm not worried, it will all come out in the wash.

        this is all manufacturered outrage and it's not going anywhere.

        She's shanghaing all of these mayors to come and join her Spring Cling express today and further denounce that they are not bitter.

        the astroturf number is 100, but apparently 20 are supposed to actually attend.  Which means 5, with the rest sending stand-ins.

        If you ask me, if I was a member of one of these townships and my mayor was dropping his schedule to keep up with this ridiculousness, there would be some heads rolling at the next city council meeting.

        Really, this is the most important thing on their agenda?

        •  manufacturered outrage (0+ / 0-)

          i have to agree on this one. And it seems to be what is driving a lot of what is going on in this blogospheric babylon.  These issues are so reactionary and seem to feed upon themselves in an infinite loop.  It is tiring. I try to read the comments in many of the articles i come upon. I am faced with a wall of bickering and endless navel gazing that  pushes me away.  Sometimes these forums/comment sections resemble a high-school-yard.  It is demoralizing. Too many people with nothing to add but their 2-cents.  There's no meat here.  'Dittohead vs. contrarian' , blah, blah.  It gets old fast.
          manufacturered outrage = a sense of accomplishment.  It signifies nothing. Reaction is a non-starter. This and many other blogs can't survive w/out it. It is disheartening though, to see the amount of energy put into proving one's own righteousness, the clarions of self-credit and congratulations...
          a Lot of people  in these forums and others seem to be seeking some kind of relevance.
          It's a temporary situation... and solves nothing.

      •  He Needs to Look At the Polls Again (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sam2300, brownsca

        Obama had stopped gaining on Clinton BEFORE this flap, as I pointed out last week.

        Josh Marshall has many obvious gifts, but I've never been overwhelmed by his political horserace abilities.  

        The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

        by Dana Houle on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:57:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Why would you include ARG? Have you seen their (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        wildly erratic polling numbers? Dart board methods rarely, if ever, work in this business.

      •  Not exactly. TPM now. See update (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        ..... in the link in this comment. For the busy/peeksneaking at work, here's the money quotes

        Sound and Fury?


        we seem to have a pretty good read now ... on the effect of "bitter". We have three polls out today -- one shows a 2 point gain for Hillary, one shows a 2 point gain for Barack, and one shows no change at all.

        So after four days of the story nonstop it appears to have had zero effect on public opinion.

        Now, there is one possible counter-argument. Obama had been gaining ground up until this last run of polls, though SUSA had him falling. So it's plausible to speculate that he would have continued gaining if not for the latest controversy. That would suggest a parallel to Texas and Ohio, where Obama appeared to be making headway until the Nafta controversy and (possibly) the 3 AM ad blunted his momentum.

        But based on what we know today it appears that all the sound and fury has signified nothing.


        ARG has a huge Clinton lead and huge Clinton gain and Susquehanna had a very small Clinton lead -- 3 points. ARG's record this year has been very poor however; and the Susquehanna sounding was a small sample, which in any case stopped sampling on the 10th, before controversy erupted.


    •  April 15 Gallup O- 51, C- 40 (9+ / 0-)

      It's Obama's largest lead to date:

    •  Veteran at Obama Town Hall says Clinton's (6+ / 0-)

      calling Obama an elitist "Comes dangerously close to calling Obama uppity." I am watching this on right now. Obama's first question is from a vet who is clearly mad about the elitism charges from the Clintons.  "The attacks from the Clintons have got to stop," he said.
      Obama said he didn't think that the elitist complaints had racial overtones.

      I couldn't believe the man said that ! Watch for this questioner and the uppity charge to make the news.

    •  No gnashing of teeth here... (0+ / 0-)

      Imagine a basketball game (please not bowling)...The media a Clinton camp took a 3 point shot that hung on the rim for a second or two then fell out...They'll keep shooting until the buzzer sounds... as should we, the Obama camp.

    •  Cue Rupert Murdoch screaming "Hillary, please (0+ / 0-)

      keep up your Rove style attacks so that we can defeat the Democrats in November!!!"

      Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

      by Joe B on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:27:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Q-poll is tied? (10+ / 0-)

    More likely

    Clinton 50 (50)
    Obama 44 (44)

    Either way I'll take it!

    "All it takes is one person to stand up and say 'f--k this.'"--Henry Rollins

    by ekthesy on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:23:23 AM PDT

  •  Good. Now maybe the media will move on... (3+ / 0-)

    nothing to see here folks, keep moving.

    You are a child of the universe; no less than the trees and the stars... Desiderata

    by byteb on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:23:32 AM PDT

  •  Isn't Quinnipiac 50-46? n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delaware Dem, biscobosco

    Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

    by Dartagnan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:23:46 AM PDT

  •  Things could still change (30+ / 0-)

    A bitter Obama could go into a diner and order a bowling ball, and would then inevitably collapse.

    Or something like that.

    Have I mentioned recently how much I hate our political media?


    Having trouble finding stuff on Daily Kos? This page has some handy hints and tricks.

    by dmsilev on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:23:47 AM PDT

  •  You've got a typo. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delaware Dem

    You're showing the Quinn Poll as a tie.

  •  A 50-50 tie, after a 44-44 tie? (6+ / 0-)

    That is a polling first.

  •  Any chance that perhaps now (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Joe B, mjd in florida, beltane, Junah

    the MSM will stop beating the dead "Bittergate" horse?

    Let's hope the Pope will distract them enough so that when he goes back to Rome we can have a national discussion about real issues.

    I don't mind straight people as long as they act gay in public.

    by internationaljock on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:24:39 AM PDT

    •  Nope...the truth will NOT get in their way... (10+ / 0-)

      of the masterplan.

      I will not stop agitating until We have our country back.

      by David Kroning on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:26:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Traditional Media In McCain's Pocket (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cyber Kat

        It is obvious what is happeneing. Bloody Obama so much tha McCain has a large lead by summer. The media would be comfortable with Clinton as the nominee as she has no chance to defeat McCain.

        Obama has very good chance to be the next president, and the corporate media will work overtime to try and halt Obama and the people.

        Well I've been from Tucson to Tucumcari... Tehachapi to Tonopah--Lowell George

        by frandor55 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:03:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The republicans should be scared (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          that McCain doesn't have a large lead.  He is running unopposed, actually with the help of Hillary Rove Clinton.  He has been glorified by the press, and he still can't poll over 50%.  Once the Democrats introduce the public to the real John McBush, through advertisements, there is no where for McBush to go but down..down..down.  That's why the Republicans are so hysterically pushing for Hillary to be the candidate.  They know she is the only one the Republicans have a prayer of a chance to beat.

      •  I think it is a good thing that Fox and co. are (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cyber Kat

        busy pushing bittergate.  The longer they waste their time on this, the less time they will spend on their next fill-in-the-blank-gate.

    •  Please Pope, say or do something to grab (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the media's attention. Call George Bush a Sinner and a Horse's Ass..Something.

      Thank you Pope Benny, whatever you can do to help is appreciated.

      Signed, a Non Catholic but you will rock it if you distract the media.

      This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

      by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:40:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Somehow, I don't think this Pope will EVER rock (0+ / 0-)

        This guy, before being Pope, did everything he could to cover up the pedophile scandals. And he was in charge of keeping dissidents in line, you know, control the heretics...

        •  true although when he descended that plane (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Virginian in Spain

          after that long trip from Italy and the first person to greet him was President Warmonger, I felt badly for the Ol guy. Having to spend all that time with the Bush family, I would have to excuse myself with a migraine. I never had a migraine but I am guessing Bush would give me one.

          This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

          by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:33:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Trust average Americans to have common sense .... (4+ / 0-)

    ... when the politicians and media have lost all sense of theirs.

    "It does not require many words to speak the truth." -- Chief Joseph, native American leader (1840-1904)

    by highfive on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:25:08 AM PDT

  •  Hillary will just have to go fish (6+ / 0-)

    something else out of her toilet to throw at Obama. It's not like, God forbid, she would ever give the voters a reason to vote FOR her.

    If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind- J.Garcia/R.Hunter

    by beltane on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:25:26 AM PDT

  •  I think Obama did an awesome job rebutting. (10+ / 0-)

    This was kind of a stretch to begin with, and Senator Obama kicked butt coming out of it.

    I call backfire.



    ...Operation Rota is Closed... New Blog Coming Soon With Pictures!...

    by nowheredesign on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:25:47 AM PDT

  •  Not... (0+ / 0-)

    It is keeping Obama from increasing his lead.

    This is EXACTLY what it was intended to do.

    He had a chance--a small one--to win PA by a point or two.

    Now it's gone.

    I will not stop agitating until We have our country back.

    by David Kroning on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:26:06 AM PDT

    •  No it's not. n/t (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Junah

      Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

      by Dartagnan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:27:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Help the voters to the polls (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cyber Kat, Virginian in Spain

        The percentages may stay the same, but the numbers who actually show up will make the difference.

        •  Polls can't account for turnout (0+ / 0-)

          That's one way that the polls in this election can end up very wrong.  They can't account for turnout.  They ask 1,000 registered voters how they will vote.  But, if thousands of newly registered voters turn out in the end, that can render the poll meaningless.

          Like the national polls that show McCain neck and neck with Obama.  How can they account for the fact that Democrats are voting 3-1 over Republicans.  That's something they can't wrap their polls around.  That's part of the reason why I am not very concerned about all these current national polls.  They really mean nothing.

    •  Nope (8+ / 0-)

      Follow the link to the previous post.  The polls indicated a stall prior to the flap.  In fact, within the margin of error, there may have been slight pro-Clinton movement.  If it did anything, it helped him.  

      The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

      by Dana Houle on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:29:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That was my reading of the situation (0+ / 0-)

        albeit from a long way know that state that has no morals or values but lots of money -- California.  (Native San Franciscan, and I'm bitter at the way we've been scapegoated as everything bad that's happened to the Democratic party.)

        •  That's not what you're being scapegoated for (0+ / 0-)

          You're being scapegoated for flouting God's eternal law as revealed in the infallible word of the New International Version translation of the Old Testament.

          You know, the one that says "I hate teh gays."

          "They see us from afar, they come to a speech, they watch us on television. And they vote. And that is part of the process. An important part."-Hillary Clinton

          by Joe Beese on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:46:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  No, his support levelled off before this happened (4+ / 0-)

      I read that he got a bump a while back after Clinton released her tax returns and from the Bosnia  flap.

      Now, we need a new Clinton controversy.

      These campaign narratives are cyclical and the media tends to punish the victim who's up. Watch for them to start taking down Clinton a peg or two in the next week. ( I know how these things work. I'm in the media.)

      •  his gains had levelled off and (0+ / 0-)

        I believe that whole bittergate business started when he was responding to a question about his inability to make further inroads.

      •  So the press makes it up about Clinton? (0+ / 0-)

        You have to love how Clinton and her friends piss and moan and complain about how nasty the press is being to her.  Well, if she would just stop lying and using Karl Rove's playbook, perhaps they would have nothing to say about her.  She is giving them all the ammunition they need.  They are NOT making this stuff up.

    •  david ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, wishingwell

      you seem to follow me around like pigpen's stink cloud in the peanuts comics ...

      you ok?

      Oh, Jesus: protect me from your followers!

      by trippinsf on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:36:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agree that it's in the realm of possibilities (0+ / 0-)

      ...that Hillary would be doing worse if she hadn't launched Bittergate.  

      But not probable. What factor would account for Obama's surge that she would have tried to offset?

      An off-shoot possibility is that Obama's quick rejoinder and clarifications negated the positive she might have gotten out of it.

      But it's all conjecture.  The polls are what they are.

      We're in a culture that increasingly holds that science is just another belief. - Alan Alda

      by sawgrass727 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:40:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Increasing his lead? (0+ / 0-)

      He never had a lead in PA.  And he has increased his lead nationally.  He's up by 11 in today's Gallup tracking poll.

      Self-criticism is the secret weapon of democracy. ~ Adlai E. Stevenson

      by writerswrite on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:32:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And you know this how? (0+ / 0-)

      Nice try, but I'm not giving up on Obama pulling it out.  There is still plenty of time left.  And, even if he only loses by 5-6%, he has still done an amazing thing coming from behind, what was it..20% or so?

  •  will cable news shut up now? (5+ / 0-)

    I stopped watching(especially the Gregory show) I just couldn`t take all these idiots predicting Obama`s downfall.
    Scarborough was still harping on this this morning,enough already.

    •  After Penn, where Obama will have closed the (4+ / 0-)

      gap to single digits, all you will hear is HE LOST PENNSYLVANIA!!!! His campaign is in trouble!  Hillary is surging!  Just sayin.

    •  Gregory' show is the biggest waste of (0+ / 0-)

      a decent idea.  He is such a condescending ass who has no idea of how to conduct political reporting.  Give me back Schuster.

      •  And to think he was once a thoughtful reporter (0+ / 0-)

        and then he danced with Karl Rove.  After that, something changed in him and he became a totally different person.  He has turned into a real jerk.

        I really do think that MSNBC should have given that slot to Rachael Maddow.  That woman rocks!  I never watch Countdown when Keith is not on, but did last week when she subbed for Keith.  Now I'll watch it whenever Rachael subs for Keith.

    •  Don't watch any of them (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cyber Kat, Hark

      Most people in this country don't. Olbermann's the highest rated program on that network, and he barely cracks a daily average of a million viewers. Matthews is second, and he's half that. This is a country of over 100 million GE voters, based on 2004 numbers. If the biggest draw at the network is drawing, at best, one percent of them, you know what they say doesn't matter for much.

      •  Very true (0+ / 0-)

        Katie Couric has the lowest rated of the three broadcast evening news shows and her ratings are larger than all three cable news stations combined.

        That puts cable news into perspective.

        Also, I really think that most people are tired of the primary race...that is showing up in the polls (See today's Gallup) and in the various "prediction markets."

    •  Don't worry about it (0+ / 0-)

      None of the people who watch those shows would vote for Obama in the first place, so don't worry about it.  

      I have to say that I am really stoked at how turned on the young people are today about voting.  My daughter is in her mid 30's and this is the first time I have ever seen her enthusiastic about voting.  It's the same with all her friends.  And then we have hundreds of thousands of new first time voters.  That's amazing.  Perhaps these young people can save us from ourselves.  

  •  I have stopped drinking orange juice and bowling (6+ / 0-)

    John and Hillary haven’t shamed me out of my bitterness, yet.  

    I have stopped drinking orange juice and bowling, though.

    This time it's personal.

    by apostrophe on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:27:07 AM PDT

  •  The media should turn this around on Clinton... (4+ / 0-)

    ...overplaying her hand.

    •  Her own surrogates have made that statement (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Sorry I can't point to the diary or the video--there have been so many--but I think a JedReport video included a couple of her PA surrogates---perhaps even Governor Rendell’himself--say that it has been overplayed.  

      We're in a culture that increasingly holds that science is just another belief. - Alan Alda

      by sawgrass727 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:43:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rendell said something to the effect that (0+ / 0-)

        this will only effect the race around the margins and wouldn't effect Obama from winning the state in November.  It was Rendell's concession that the nomination race was over that I found pretty wild.

      •  Rendell knows Obama's the nominee, and (0+ / 0-)

        will be President. He jumped on board with Hillary too soon, back when she was inevitable. Now he's stuck, but he's not gonna dis Obama.

        May your entire existence be one sensuous, frolic-filled experience lived in defiance of care.

        by Fonsia on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:05:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Credit where Credit is Due (11+ / 0-)

    It's not by chance that these flare-ups end-up meaning nothing much:  Barack is good at not taking any shit, and counter punching fast, hard, and smart.  

    All the while breaking down - one piece at a time - the "politics as usual" garbage we've grown cynical and bitter about.  Not to mention showing every day to America what the pundit class is all about... helping them stay focused, those fools.

    Give it up for Barack, folks.  Off to donate.  My candidate is doing good work.  Go Barack.

  •  In regards to ARG. (7+ / 0-)

    They were shit last week, they were shit this week, they will be shit next week.

    "Politics, a strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles." Ambrose Pierce

    by mentaldebris on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:28:32 AM PDT

  •  my opinion (0+ / 0-)

    you can say i am completely out of place, but it appears to me "democrat" bloggers and websites have taken obama words and did all of hillary's and the republican party's work for them

    something is occurring that is unspoken yet very obvious

  •  Keep telling yourself that DH (0+ / 0-)

    because the rasmussen poll increased and she still maintains her double digit lead. Susquehenna and Quinnipiac were conducted before obama's misspeak

  •  If Hillary doesn't get the nomination that is her (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat, Granny Doc

    due, will she run as a third party candidate a la Lieberman?  She seems like she's setting up a bid as the Hillary for America Party candidate.

    "That's what killed Dennis Day-- contempt for the audience." -- Phil Hartman as Frank Sinatra

    by Pangloss on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:29:05 AM PDT

  •  I like being UPSET (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jeepdad, Granny Doc

    GoBama!!! ;)

    I like a little rebellion now and then. It is like a storm in the atmosphere ~ Thomas Jefferson

    by valadon on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:30:05 AM PDT

  •  In addition (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, mcfly, jre2k8, Granny Doc

    to the most important people (voters) finding nothing to see here, there's Barney Frank:

    Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said he thought that Obama had "a very legitimate point to make," but expressed it poorly.

    "Bitter is not a good word to use," Frank said. He said Obama should have stuck with an economic argument rather than talking about guns and religion. Obama should have said "yes, people are angry," and that's why they should oppose trade deals that drive jobs abroad and other economic plans that disadvantage U.S. workers.

    Plus he says HRC should quit after 6/3 if she is trailing...

    "We have been told that we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics. It will only grow louder and more dissonant." Barack Obama 2.05.08

    by MLDB on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:30:13 AM PDT

    •  Significant, Since Barney's Sister is Ann Lewis (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacrelicious, wishingwell, Fonsia

      Ann Lewis is a close adviser to Clinton.

      The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

      by Dana Houle on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:35:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There is no "if" (0+ / 0-)

      Plus he says HRC should quit after 6/3 if she is trailing...

      Frank is being diplomatic because there is no "if" she is trailing.  She will be trailing because there is no way she can catch up to Obama's delegate count.

      BTW, a co-worker tried to tell me the other day that if all the primaries were winner take all voter primaries (rather than caucuses) that Obama would be behind in the popular vote.  I pointed out that if you gave Obama the popular vote based on the percentage he was holding in the most recent poll in all the caucus states he won, he would now be over a million popular votes ahead of Hillary.  Hillary supporters somehow calculate her popular vote in all the states she has won (and usually include MI and FL), but don't give Obama ANY votes for the states where he won the caucus.  Now that's pretty fuzzy math.

  •  DHinMI, thanks for rounding up all the polls (5+ / 0-)

    and putting in one diary for discussion. Maybe it will cut down on the new BREAKING! diaries.

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:30:17 AM PDT

  •  Obama and Team better be ready for that 72hr (5+ / 0-)

    bullshit blast cycle this time.

    •  Yea (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Clinton has a stunt before every primary.  Maybe she will be taken by a hot air balloon this time and try and blame Barack.

      •  Obama better have something going (0+ / 0-)

        on for Sunday and Monday.  Either at some basketball game or late show or something.

        Hillary is on Colbert on Thursday (Michelle is on tonight) but Obama needs to do something big.

      •  It's no coincidence (0+ / 0-)

        that the woman who crashed Obama's private (meaning no press allowed) fundraiser and recorded what he said just happens to be a Hillary supporter.  Many people think that Hillary asked her to wait until Friday to post her hit job on the Huffington Post because Hillary knew that there would be some bad press about the slimy people they did business with which was exposed in their tax returns.  I doubt it was any coincidence, either, that Hillary showed up at an event on Saturday, less than 24 hours after the post, with "I'm not bitter" bumper stickers which she tried to give out at her campaign stop.  Funny thing, no one seemed to want them.

    •  This was it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      She couldn't risk waiting so she went a week early.

      •  Hope you're right. Could be, actually, (0+ / 0-)

        because she's already pissing people off for being too negative. If she hits him again so soon, she could easily push that over the line.

        Nevertheless, I still expect some outrageous lie to emerge from her on or about April 20th. (Although it would be kinda nice if Obama turned the tables on that tactic by telling some outrageous truth about her on or about April 20th.)

        May your entire existence be one sensuous, frolic-filled experience lived in defiance of care.

        by Fonsia on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:12:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (4+ / 0-)

      The Obama campaign hasn't shown itself to be a good finisher.  Obama needs to make news on a late night TV show, he needs some kind of attention getting great finishing message and he needs to be prepared for the sneak attack he knows is going to come this weekend.  Hillary has dropped some kind of bomb on Obama at the last minute over and over again and Obama's campaign has consistently seemed to be caught unawares and fade at the last minute.  Remember most of these bombs are some outrageous lies perpetuated by her staff and supporters that get corrected a week later by the news.  Obama can't take the weekend off.  Obama needs to work the hardest from Friday through Tuesday night.  He can take Wednesday morning off.

  •  Poll models (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Joe Beese

    I don't really trust polls this year, anyway. The models will be based on who voted in the last cycle, and this time is different. I think there'll be more African-American participation as well as higher voter turnout from young voters due to Obama's appeal to both groups. I'm not sure this new paradigm is being accounted for by pollsters.

    The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

    by Korkenzieher on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:32:30 AM PDT

    •  But hasn't that been true of all states? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I would think that, by now, pollsters would have learned a few things from watching and experiencing voting patterns in other states.

      Logic says polls should become MORE reliable as time goes on during a long campaign, but I hope you're right.

      Don't Legitimize Fox News.
      "Democrats have the heart to care."

      by jeepdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:35:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There really is no way (0+ / 0-)

        for polls to account for higher than average turnout.  The only thing they can do is to try to make the demographics they poll accurate (like including more young people these days), but they can do nothing about predicting voter turnout.  That's why I don't worry about national polls showing McCain neck and neck with both Obama and Clinton.

  •  Having lived in PA for half a century, (6+ / 0-)

    most of my life...and being involved in the politics of PA for 30 of those years, People in PA decide who they are voting for and tend to stick with it. So those who were never going to vote for Obama, probably won't. But if they were planning to vote for Obama, they probaby will do that as well.

    Sure there are undecideds but maybe it is just my experience of doing a lot of canvassing and calling for a few decades; but there are few undecideds around these parts this close to an election.

    So I have my doubts if Hillary's negative ads will impact the results of the election here. But I could be wrong.

    This is the Silly Season of Politics-Barack Obama

    by wishingwell on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:35:08 AM PDT

    •  Found a lot of undecideds in South Philly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      last weekend. Definitely more Hillary supporters than Obama, but plenty of people who seemed genuinely undecided (not just Hillary supporters who did not want to say) and even some of the people who were for Hillary seemed at least willing to read the Obama literature I gave them.

      Before you guys panic, the neighborhoods I canvassed in South Philly were mostly Italian middle-class, so it wasn't expected to be a big Obama-friendly neighborhood.

      "There's not a liberal America and a conservative America; THERE'S THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA." OBAMA '08

      by democrattotheend on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:40:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Then how do you explain (0+ / 0-)

      the fact that Obama has come from being behind 20+ percentage points and now appears to be behind maybe 6 percentage points?  That's an awful lot of movement if you ask me.

  •  Hillary's going to regret asking for this (4+ / 0-)

    debate.  Obama's going to have so much ammunition due to her overreaction to anything he has said these last six weeks and her own 'misstatements' about her experience that he can pull his punches and still leave her rhetorically crippled by the end of the night.

    1. The Rev. Wright "nontroversy" (ht, some kossack who used that phrase recently) which Obama turned into an opportunity for addressing race in this country, and Hillary's harping on it after it was out of the media's focus (in an effort to resurrect it as an issue) isn't going to help her.
    1. Her bitter response to his 'bitter' comment - which is pretty much getting ignored by people who matter (the voters) if you don't count those she paid to be in her ads (i.e. actors). Hell, even Fox news found people agreed with Obama's comments and weren't all that offended by them.
    1. The Bosnia lie.

    But hey, she's going on the Colbert Report, so she could see a Colbert bump.

    Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:38:15 AM PDT

    •  Hopefully Colbert (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Joe B, IndyScott, Joe Beese

      Makes her look stupid ala White House Correspondents Dinner

    •  nontroversy??? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      lol...the man's long time minister, long time friend to him and his family, and at one point a part of his campaign spews an amazing viotrile brew of anti-americanism and it doesn't even register on your controversy meter????  

      i beg to differ.  I think many others would too.

      You guys are so naive.  you think this is the last you are going to hear about this stuff??  You think this is as hard as it's going to get?  You get to general election and you will really see how this kind of stuff can be used as a bludgeon by the GOP and it's creepy assortment of believers.

      As for the debate.  Hillary has yet to regret a debate performance....maybe the driver's license one, but that's it.  She always does very well in these debates.  I expect she will do the same this time.  It's gonna be fun to watch

      •  Actually, if you heard his words in context (5+ / 0-)

        and not just the phrase "god damn America", you wouldn't be parroting Sean Hannity right now.

        Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

        by darthstar on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:51:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's so sad when Democrats must behave like (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Cyber Kat, darthstar

          Fox News anchors to support their candidate.

          Don't Legitimize Fox News.
          "Democrats have the heart to care."

          by jeepdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:53:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  what's sadder.... (0+ / 0-)

            people who so blindly turn over all sense of self-thought to a politician....ANY politician.

            history is littered with many scary roads that started just like that.

            •  Why are you hanging around here? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              kefauver, darthstar

              Looking at your history, you might be more comfortable at redstate?

              Calling people on this website nutjobs because you disagree? Comparing them to cultists?

              Not leading to a good discussion...

                  * [new] evil president (0+ / 0-)
              lol....listen to you nutjobs.

              you know what scares me more than a Dick Cheney presidency (pretty scary thought!)......any politician who has supporters who will believe 100% no matter what.  That's a scary road.

              You guys would have fit in great with the Jim Jones Crusade.

              They had fangs...they were drinking blood....They had this look in their eyes, totally animal. I think they were young Republicans. (Buffy the Vampire Slayer)

              by wrights on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:23:42 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  no, I'm perfectly fine where I am (0+ / 0-)

                life long liberal, and do not defer to anyone when it comes to my liberal credentials.

                you dont like hearing what i got to say...don't read it.  But, I am going to say it.  I have a lot of problems with the Obama kool-aid drinkers.  a lot.

        •  lol.... (0+ / 0-)

          ahhhhhh....i see, all those were just taken out of context by the evil obama-hating-mainstream-media.

          now, I understand.

          •  Dude, look it up yourself...use ''the google" if (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kefauver, Cyber Kat, Fonsia

            you have to.  The full sermon is out there.  If you really care about the truth, you'll look...but if you are looking for an excuse to dismiss Obama, you've already got one, so just hang on to it with all your might and be happy with your discontent.

            Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

            by darthstar on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:56:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  you dont have to sell to me (0+ / 0-)

              I'm not one to put a whole bunch of stock into it.  However, it does raise some eyebrows, and rightfully so.  People have a right to have some hard questions for him over this deal.

              When I desribe these events to you guys, I try to come at it from a more general public viewpoint.  My own feelings can often be different.  I take this vantage point to try and point out to some of your obamainsaniacs that if you are not wearing the obama-colored glasses, things can look a lot different than how you guys see things.

              and the total seperation from reality by some of your guys is a bit scary.

          •  it's clear you haven't bothered to listen to (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            or read, the entire sermon.  The answer to your question is, yes, those quotes have been taken out of context.

            Self-criticism is the secret weapon of democracy. ~ Adlai E. Stevenson

            by writerswrite on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:39:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  And (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacrelicious, Cyber Kat

        You don't think that the GOP is going to hammer Hillary for being a Clinton. That is a pariah that doesn't go away, I will take the Wright controversy over the hmany that will come up with against her, lets see if we can name a couple

           * 1978: Whitewater

           * 1979: Cattle futures

           * 1980: Adoption of the Clinton last name for political reasons

           * 1993: Alleged suppression of Wellesley thesis

           * 1993: Travel office firings

           * 1993: Vince Foster

           * 1993: Allegedly improper actions regarding FBI files

           * 1993: Health care plan

           * 1996: Role in campaign finance controversy

           * 1996: "It Takes a Village" ghostwriter

           * 1998: "Vast right-wing conspiracy"

           * 1999: Kissing Suha Arafat

           * 2000: Hollywood fundraiser

           * 2000: "Living History" book advance and ghostwriters

           * 2001: Hasidic pardons

           * 2007: Speech patterns

           * 2007: Norman Hsu

      •  Why don't you try opening your mind (0+ / 0-)

        and actually listening to everything that Wright had to say, in context!  I find it amazing that in a 30 year career as a pastor, all Obama's detractors could come up with were five out-of-context quotes to play ad nausium.  Unlike you, most people are willing to judge people by what they say and what they do rather than by what someone they know says or does.  My father was the biggest bigot on the face of the earth.  Would you have expected me to denounce him and have nothing to do with him because of it?

        BTW, you missed one of the right's biggest talking point.  How could Obama subject his darling daughters to all this hatred.  That's the biggest laugh of all.  When was the last time you saw a child in church.  They all go to Sunday school, for gods sake.  I'm betting they have never heard the Rev. Wright preach a sermon.

    •  I don't think the PA voters are ignoring Obama's (0+ / 0-)


      You're either completely wrong about this, or the entire WORLD is in on a giant conspiracy to make it look like Obama's asinine comments actually made people in PA mad.

      I think I'll take option one.

      "I support Hillary Clinton and the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign"

      •  What's asinine about the truth? People are (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cyber Kat

        bitter.  And you know what? That's okay! They have a right to be bitter.   Granted, Obama himself has admitted he could have phrased his words better the first time, but that doesn't make his comments asinine.  

        Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

        by darthstar on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:53:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  most people don't care (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the ones who do weren't going to vote for Obama (or any Democrat) anyway.

        selection bias I'm sure, but I talk with a wide variety of people and I live in the pennsyltucky part of the state.

        Central PA Kossacks"Obama can hope all over me!" Si se fucking puede!

        by terrypinder on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:06:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also, the majority of voters are in (0+ / 0-)

          Philly and it's 6 surrounding counties, the Ed Rendell winning model, and Obama may not win but he's sure going to do pretty well in those areas.  Furthermore, Harriburg is an AA stronghold, then he has some pretty important Pittsburgh support.  So while I don't think Obama will win PA, I don't think he's going to lose by a huge amount.

  •  CAFTA CAFTA CAFTA (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Cyber Kat, writerswrite

    All of this talk about the word bitter is not going to help anyone that needs it.  The issues that are going to help Penn need to be brought to bear, especially the deal with Columbia Free Trade that would move more jobs out of Penn.  Guess who "says" she does not support it, but Bill and her campaign are actively trying to get it passed.  Why is Clinton getting a pass on this issue that would actually affect people's lives in Penn?

  •  Everyone here is missing the REAL scandal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mengelhart, pcoleman

    I propose that this whole "bittergate" thing is irrelevant.  Why?  Because Obama's suggestion itself that he knows what most Penn. voters taste like is ludicrous!  How in the hell could he have had enough time to lick all the voters to tell that they are bitter!  HRC and McBush need to jump all over this.  I mean, seriously, who's taste buds is he trusting? I want a president that actually KNOWS how people taste before he purports to lecture me about how they taste.  What an elitist prig...

  •  "bitter" effect (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    first of all, for the record it's not "bitter" that is the cause of the furor, it's the "cling" part.  That is the most damaging and disparaging of his comments.

    but as for the effect, I dont buy that these polls would show the full impact yet (if there is one).  We will see the true impact next week....on election day.  We will know then.  If Clinton wins by 5-6 points, you can make the case it did not have an effect.  If she wins by 10 or more points, you can make the case it did have an effect.

    plus, the exit polls will tell us a lot too about this.

    •  Many were saying Hillary will win by 10 (0+ / 0-)

      points before the bitter dustup (and, by the way, it's Hillary who is banking on the "we're not bitter" argument). I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10-12 points. Even then, her delegate pickup will be but a scratch on the surface of Obama's delegate lead.before

      Don't Legitimize Fox News.
      "Democrats have the heart to care."

      by jeepdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:49:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think Obama can put this puppy to bed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jeepdad, wishingwell, Cyber Kat

    tomorrow if he gives a great answer at the debate tomorrow night.  We all know that Hillary is going to try to hit him hard with this tomorrow but Hillary tends to over reach on things which can result in a backlash.

    As long as Obama gives a great answer tomorrow and appears sincere (which he always does), I think he will be fine.

    A Great Debate Answer + PollS showing minimal effect=media STOPS with this firestorm and we can move onto something ELSE.

  •  Spin, Spin, Sugar... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    We'll see what happens Tuesday.

  •  He Needs To Blast Her (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    She and her husband have earned $109 million dollars in the last seven years.

    He needs to repeat that. Endlessly. And follow up with "Can you believe someone rolling in that kind of dough is accusing me of being elite?"

    Pound her with it. $109 million. $109 million. $109 million.

    Ask her when she last fired a gun and/or went hunting. Now that she's brought it up, I think the people of Pennsylvania deserve to know. Have her tell us all what kind of rifle it was. And what she was hunting for. And what she shot. . .

    Expose her as the greedy, lying hypocrite that she is.

    They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time. -- Brian Fantana

    by IndyScott on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:43:06 AM PDT

  •  Hillary could win by over 10 points (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IndySteve, jeepdad

    if she goes into PA back country with a bow and arrow and kills a deer.  She'd get another 5 points on top of this, if she kills a black bear.  

  •  she could win by 20... (0+ / 0-)

    is she did a cheney and hit bill.

    he's doing her no favors.

  •  Clinton takes PA by 12 points n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  Later polls will better gauge the impact (0+ / 0-)

    The Bittergate story hit Friday evening. A substantial number of people aren't paying attention to the news Friday night or through the weekend. That's why Rachel Maddow rightly refers to it as take-out-the-trash day--things will be in and out of the news cycle before people start paying attention again on Monday. The fact that this carried over into this week should give all Obama supporters pause.

    Also, given that these polls seem to be all over the map, it's probably best to ignore them altogether. The only poll that matters is the one a week from today.

    •  I seem to recall (0+ / 0-)

      That the reaction to the Wright controversy was pretty immediate in both the national tracking polls and the local state polls.  It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I would guess that the people that arent going to vote for him, didn't like the message and people that were inclined to vote will.  I would guess that all this is doing is polarizing the undecideds, the debate could help to jar those loose.

      We all went to heaven in a little rowboat, and there was nothing to fear and nothing to doubt. --Radiohead

      by Tzimisce on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wright broke on a Thursday morning (0+ / 0-)

        ..when Brian Ross did his report on Good Morning America. The rest of the press was on it by that evening, with NBC--the last holdout--covering it Friday AM. Timing counts for a lot, and it penetrated the national consciousness a lot faster.

        Everybody knows about Bittergate now, though.

  •  All eyes on the debate now. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat

    Unfortunately, he needs the performance of a lifetime.

    Fortunately, he's grown a tremendous pair in the past week.

  •  Who knows what the polls would look like if the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat

    bitter stuff didn't replace Bill Clinton bringing up Bosnia again. So maybe these two things collided to make it a wash.

    Sorry I have to run to the Senate floor to abolish torture.

    by bten on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:49:40 AM PDT

  •  I firmly believe this will backfire on Clinton... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat, rccats3, Joe Beese

    I'm in Indiana and people are po'ed, bitter and frustrated with what has happened over the last twenty years. They hear Obama echoing that frustration AND providing concrete solutions, and they say "yeah".

    Clinton drinking whiskey and talking about guns in PA and IN isn't credible. Typical politically calculated move, and people see through it (except the committed Clinton supporters).

  •  Wait just a gol darn minute (0+ / 0-)

    What about the needs of the media? Are the people of Penn. really that callous? How selfish of them --now the talking heads are going to have to report news..or something.

    "Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed." General Buck Turgidson

    by muledriver on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:51:22 AM PDT

  •  Hm (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terrypinder, Cyber Kat

    love how 70% of Obama supporters would back Clinton over McCain, and 50% of Clinton supporters would back Obama over McCain.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:52:06 AM PDT

  •  This is what the media wants this race to be (0+ / 0-)

    and the people are saying no!

  •  My local newspaper - which serves (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat, Fonsia

    several small towns in NE/Central PA, ran a front page article wherein they spoke to people about Obama's comments. General result - only a few took mild offense (not proportionate to the media frenzy). Even the Hillary supporters acknowledged that Obama's main point was accurate and that the media was overplaying it.

    I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. - Major General Smedley D. Butler, USMC

    by Marinesquire on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:56:16 AM PDT

  •  I love it when they FAIL. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kanuk, Mbuto

    Hand me down my walking cane, hand me down my hat...

    by Cheez Whiz on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:58:28 AM PDT

  •  Still one week to go!! (0+ / 0-)

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:58:53 AM PDT

  •  Today's Gallup O 51, C 40 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    loveaustin, jakester, CGrace, 1 20 2009

    Story isn't up yet, but I saw the numbers on the tracking graph.

  •  I am watching now, looks like it is going to be a (0+ / 0-)

    double digit loss for Obama...I have to thinkthere are someother internal polls we don't know about.  Setting up a big trap for Obama, Hillary does better than expected...etc.

    Obama wins at the end, but not looking good right now...PA is lost.

    I am watching Obama's schedule for the next few days.

    •  Pennsylvania (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Hope Monger

      I don't think he's going to win PA, he only had a very slight chance to do so before, but I don't think the whole "bitter" thing is going to hurt him like the MSM is saying that it will. From interviews done with voters in PA by different news outlets, most people know what he meant and are not holding it against him.  The ones that are, probably wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

      Did anyone see Jon Stewart last night?  He was taking the media to task over the whole "elitist" thing.  He was saying that "elite" means something good, we should want someone that is better.  He really dissed the media on all of this and Hillary too.

      •  May move him from a 7-8 points loss, to a (0+ / 0-)

        12-13 points loss.  No too big, but will move a single digit number into a double digit number, which won't look good.

        I am sick to my stomach!

        •  The number is ultimately irrelevant (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Hope Monger

          Even a 1% Clinton victory will be spun by both candidate and media as the greatest political comeback since the Checkers speech. And even a 20% victory in every remaining state will not close the pledged delegate gap.

          Hillary either convinces a super-majority of uncommitted superdelegates that Obama is less electable than her - or she loses. It's really that simple.

          Given that her own numbers go down as much if not more than his when she goes negative, this would seem an impossibility.

          "They see us from afar, they come to a speech, they watch us on television. And they vote. And that is part of the process. An important part."-Hillary Clinton

          by Joe Beese on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:00:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Did you expect Obama to win the PA primary??? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Seriously, Hillary has the whole PA Democratic organization locked up.  I'll be thrilled with a ten point loss in PA.

      I'm bitter. Finally, someone understands.

      by keeplaughing on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:17:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Call Me an Optimist (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Hope Monger

      But I think he loses by 5-8 points. He's garnered a ton of endorsements lately, especially a big one from the Pittsburgh Steelers owner, Rooney, which will go a lot farther than any political or newspaper endorsement. Plus, Hillary has been sliding lately.

      Beltway Wisdom is an Oxymoron.

      by kefauver on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:02:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama internal polling (0+ / 0-)

      I looked but don't think they post their own poll numbers. It seems they've been spot on with their predictions. Does anyone know what the their own projections for Pa are?

  •  Black voters in PA vs OH? (0+ / 0-)

    What is the ratio of black voters in PA as compared with Ohio?

    •  About the same percentage (0+ / 0-)

      African American percentages are very similar statewide in PA vs. Ohio.  The largest African-American populations are in Philadelphia, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh.

      Western PA is very similar to Ohio.  However, southcentral PA relates more to the Baltimore/D.C. area and northeastern PA relates more to northern New Jersey.

      JPZenger was a newspaper publisher whose jury trial in the 1730s for seditious libel helped establish the freedom to criticize top government officials.

      by JPZenger on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:09:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  They still can't find real dirt on Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If they had anymore poo on Obama, they would have thrown it by now.  It is amazing that they can't find any real dirt on the guy.  The worst things they have found for attacks on him are things that his wife or his minister said.

    It reminds me of the time that J. Edgar Hoover sent out a team of FBI agents to get the dirt on Bobby Kennedy, so Hoover could blackmail him.  Bobby was the Attorney General- who was Hoover's boss.  The agents came back and had to tell Hoover they couldn't find anything.

    JPZenger was a newspaper publisher whose jury trial in the 1730s for seditious libel helped establish the freedom to criticize top government officials.

    by JPZenger on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:06:49 AM PDT

  •  this is nice news (0+ / 0-)

    it shows that the media's campaigns of instructing americans what to think and feel about this campaign are failing more and more.  

    a lot of people are waking up and that is nice to see.  i hope they don't just go back to sleep.

  •  Obama +11 in Gallup today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jethropalerobber, dpc, kefauver

    Hillary getting just 40%. OMG Obama is done!

    "Turncoat! Killer! Liar! Thief! Criminal with protection of the law..."

    by 1 20 2009 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:07:30 AM PDT

  •  Bitter Flap (0+ / 0-)

    When I first scanned the title of this front-pager, I thought it was calling Clinton a "bitter flap". Not a bad description when you think about it.

    Canada - where a pack of smokes is ten bucks and a heart transplant is free.

    by dpc on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:45 AM PDT

  •  There are two strategies at work here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver, Joe Beese

    The first strategy is obviously for Hillary to use an issue to widen her lead in Pennsylvania because without a 15 to 20 point margin she starts to be in big trouble. Doubly so if Obama gets within single digits.

    The second strategy is to convince superdelegates that Obama is a damaged candidate who cannot possibly win the election.

    If her ploy fails then the 'bittergate' controversy will drop in the dustbin of failed desperate attempts by the Hillary campaign to knock Obama off stride.  If, however, it was to take, then she will be encouraged to march on in typical Rovian fashion, seeking to destroy Obama and knock him from the race.

    •  Well thats the tactic (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kefauver, Cyber Kat, Joe Beese

      Throw it up and see what sticks, seriously they will take any claim and attack him with it just to see if it will stick.  It's desperate and stupid, but it's all she has to win, which is the exact reason why she should leave the race.  It's one thing have the Republicans do it, it's quite another to throw mud in your own house.

      We all went to heaven in a little rowboat, and there was nothing to fear and nothing to doubt. --Radiohead

      by Tzimisce on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:13:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Your Missing the Bigger Picture! (0+ / 0-)

    Your post is very misleading in that it doesn't matter what democratic PA voters think!!

    What matters is what Independent PA voters think !!!!

  •  Overplayed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat, Fonsia, Joe Beese

    If HRC had let the Bitter controversy just sit out there and "loom" I think it might've had a bigger impact. But once again she and her campaign staff overplayed the controversy.

    She came off as shrill, conniving, and, dare I say it, bitter herself. Her efforts to claim some sort of legacy as a gun owner and knocking back a shot and beer like a Baltimore Stevedore made her look even sillier than Obama on a Tractor.

  •  Chris Matthews Gives Clinton A Double-Digit Lead (0+ / 0-)

    Tweety just told Andrea Mitchell he thinks Clinton is really leading in PA by double-digits...

  •  who could have predicted that a non-issue... (4+ / 0-)

    ...would have no impact on the polls.

    this calls for another week of thorough analysis by our salt-of-the-earth celebrity pundits.

  •  We're missing one point. (0+ / 0-)

    Apparently Clinton has stopped Obama from closing in. At least according to all the polls except the Susquehanna poll.

    •  Nope (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Virginian in Spain

      As I've pointed out elsewhere in the thread, as I pointed out in the post, and as you would see if you followed the links or looked at the comparisons, Obama's numbers had stalled PRIOR to this flap.  If anything, Obama's numbers had slipped a tiny bit the previous week (within the MoE, so statistically not really), while these polls show zero movement.  

      The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

      by Dana Houle on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:55:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The only cure for ignorance is confession (0+ / 0-)

    Can someone tell me how the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania is going to work? Is it a winner-take-all? Proportional? By some sort of geopolitical district?

    You'd think I'd be paying attention, but as I live in Minnesota and don't have a vote there, I haven't bothered to pay attention to the details of the contest. Can someone here enlighten (or at at least de-dimmen) me?

  •  CNN has become HILARIOUSLY biased, read this (0+ / 0-)

    I was just sitting with my wife listening to the news, when the announcer between breaks goes into the news stories...

    "Barrack Obama's remarks about small-town America, will they hurt him or will they help hillary clinton?"

  •  As the Quinnipiac poll director said yesterday... (0+ / 0-)

    the bitter comment will not have much impact in PA, because the people that are offended are already voting for her -- that's why she is ahead by 10 points. It will, however, have an impact if he is the nominee, which is another reason the super delegates shouldn't vote for him.

  •  Thank God! Man I do not want to see (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cyber Kat

    anything a resurrection of Hillary's momentum.

    Everything no problem!

    by gregoryjames on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:24:57 AM PDT

  •  How can you draw that conclusion, Kos? (0+ / 0-)
    "PA Polls Indicate Reaction to "Bitter" Flap is a Big Yawn"

    That's a pretty far leap.  He has been closing for the past month, and all of the sudden it is stuck at relatively the same point from before the "flap"?  Perhaps if there had been no "flap", he would have continued to close.  We'll never know, but this conclusion has no facts behind it.

    "Could an omnipotent being create a rock so heavy that even that being could not lift it?"

    by awkawk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:34:17 AM PDT

    •  Erm sorry, not Kos, DHinMI (n/t) (0+ / 0-)

      "Could an omnipotent being create a rock so heavy that even that being could not lift it?"

      by awkawk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:39:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  numbers had flattened out prior to flap (0+ / 0-)

      The flap started because he was fielding a question about why he could not gain the support of the blue collar workers in Pa.  The ceiling had become apparent (according to polling data anyway).

      •  Evidence? (0+ / 0-)

        Of the three polls conducted after the flap about Obama's comments about the rational voting behavior of people in economically neglected communities, there's almost no change.

        When I look at Pollster, I don't see any numbers to back up your claim.

        "Could an omnipotent being create a rock so heavy that even that being could not lift it?"

        by awkawk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:52:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If you take the polls taken from 2 weeks prior to (0+ / 0-)

          bittergate you get Clinton ahead by 5.7 (3/31 - 4/4 6 polls)

          Then the week before she is ahead by 4.8 (4/8 - 4/9 6 polls)

          That is only a 1 gain for Obama.

          Now compare that with 3 weeks ago where she led by 10.2 (3/24 - 3/29 5 polls).

          That was a gain of about 5 for Obama.  I'm not a pollster but I got my info from here

          I'll grant you that it is rough but to me clearly a flattening out.

    •  Ok (0+ / 0-)

      "Could an omnipotent being create a rock so heavy that even that being could not lift it?"

      by awkawk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:04:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  There is more and better coming ! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Pollsters for the L.A. Times and Bloomberg have been in the field in the three states that will next shape the careening Democratic presidential race, and the results will be welcomed by the recently battered and bruised Barack Obama campaign.

    We're not quite ready to reveal the numbers; the findings and an analysis of them will be available here about 2 p.m. (PDT). But, in line with a Quinnipiac poll released today for Pennsylvania, the Times/Bloomberg survey reports little change in what had been the trend in the state as its April 22 primary approaches, despite the firestorm over Obama's comments about the mentality of some denizens of small towns.

    Same goes for North Carolina -- prevailing voter attitudes there in the May 6 face-off between Hillary Clinton and Obama do not seem to have been reshaped by the controversy.

    The big surprise emerged from Indiana, which also holds its primary on May 6. So far, little polling has been conducted there, but what has been done has been positive for Clinton. No so with these new numbers.

    The furor currently surrounding Obama erupted Friday afternoon; our polls were conducted Thursday through Monday.

  •  Though Clinton wants us to focus 100% of our (0+ / 0-)

    attention on what she thinks is important.  Perhaps a step back will give us better perspective.

    This chart shows that she is starting a nose dive nationwide.  Granted they are both being hurt by this drawn out circus,  but clearly her support is falling more sharply than his.

  •  What I'm hearing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is that Jeremiah Wright is having more of an effect than Bittergate. Which in my opinion is not particularly bad news, as I'm convinced that most of those citing Wright as their reason for opposing Obama never would have supported him anyway, for, um, other reasons. They can use Wright to avoid admitting their real reasons.

    I don't give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it's Hell. -- Harry Truman

    by jazzyndn on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:58:57 AM PDT

  •  Our problem is the MSM Barbecue Buddies (0+ / 0-)

    The shallow corporate sock-puppets otherwise known as the MSM is more and more revealed to be the real problem, rather than an honest observation of what we all recognize. Decades of malign neglect have left middle America an economic dust bowl.

    Reinstate the Fairness Doctrine!

    by jimbo92107 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:06:34 PM PDT

  •  Witness to Hillary's Hypocrisy (0+ / 0-)

    Acclaimed political scientist Theda Skocpol has revealed that in multiple White House policy meetings with her, both Bill & Hillary spoke about the working class and

    "their unfortunate (from a Clinton perspective) proclivity to vote on life-style rather than economic issues. To see Hillary going absolutely over the top to smash Obama for making clearly more humanly sympathetic observations in this vein, is just amazing."

    full revelation here

    I hope we can get her on the national news - we deserve to hear more about these meetings...

  •  Wow, earlier comments vaporized? (0+ / 0-)

    Censors couldn't handle reality based discussion I guess.

    Well, the truth is leaking out  whether you like it or not  and voters will know who Obama really is by November.

  •  Life long PA resident reports.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DHinMI, Roxpert, Cyber Kat, moondancing

    I have lived in PA, Pittsburgh, Philly and Mechanicsburg(central PA) my whole life.
      I have found only Republicans with negative things to say about Obama's recent factual remarks.
     Some Hillary supporters are leaving her and going to Obama because they do not like her making a big deal of nothing.
      Clinton supporters are upset by her negativity. They don't like her attacking another Democrat so vehemently.
     All but one Clinton supporter i have spoken with personally have been women over 50 who support her because they want a woman in the White House.
     They are upset by Clinton doing shots and embracing guns and hunting because it smacks of pandering and sends the message that women must act like men to gain power.
      It is sad but their is a lot of racial prejudice in central PA.  Most are Republicans and would never vote Democrat and the few racist Democrats will support Clinton because they would never vote for a non-white.
       It is so good to see that Progressive values are  what drive peopletoward the Democrats.
      Now we have to get rid of all the corporate controlled Dems left over from the Clinton era and before and we will see a BIG change in the USA.  A change toward Freedom, Prosperity and accountability under the Rule of Law

  •  Obama Worker at Willies speech today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Virginian in Spain

     I work for Obama in a steeltown in Pa.  Bill CLinton spoke at a rally in our town this morning and six of us went over to be an Obama presence.
     Most everyone I know got robocalled with an invite, yet there was maybe a hundred people attending.  When you cull out the hangers on, press, and vols you got a poker game.  After seeing posts from Nezua(MTV) on the same thing in Oregon, I think much of Hillarys campaign is sustained by the press.  Talk about the paper tiger.

  •  Obamaveep (0+ / 0-)

    I have three words for the Obama campaign on who Mr. Obama should seriously consider as a running mate:

    Debbie Wassermann Schultz.

    She is an ardent Hillary supporter and would heal and mollify disaffected Hillary supporters, especially older women in the party.
    She would help solidify Florida, crucial in the fight ahead against McCain
    She would reassure Jewish voters, who may be concerned with Obama’s Middle East leanings.
    He could start to move towards the center and let her take care of the hotter populist arguments.
    She would make a perfect attack-dog Veep: articulate, passionate, stylish ad powerful. She could protect the perimeter and thus allow Obama to continue to indulge in being himself – charismatic, dreamy and inspiring.
    Finally, she would bring serious down-ticket power to an already successful coattails effect in the making.

    (Sure, Jim Webb would be a good choice, too, especially in the area of military credentials/credibility, but Obama will probably win Virginia anyway, and we need Florida!)

  •  The entire quote (0+ / 0-)

    The entire quote isn't being aired, and that pisses me off. The part Obama starts with concerning clinging is due to economic distress.
    I am sick of catering to the religious right , they don't represent any of the teachings of Jesus. I am not a Christian but Jesus was a great thinker and philosopher. The way of life he prescribes is far from what this group shoves down our throats.
    Which leads to Obama. I think if he ripped into half baked preachers sucking the blood of desperate people he would have been greeted more openly.

    To maintain privacy-I was at work and a 'coworker' was watching the "God Channel" (who knew?) It was some type of revival. The people were clinging to hope, period.
    I don't want to sound dismissive , but the people the preacher 'called on' seemed desperate and the heat of the moment got them. It seemed like a bad Saturday Night Live Skit (is there any other kind?).
    As much as we need an open and honest dialogue about ethnicity in this country is as bad as we need an open and honest dialogue about religion and faith as well.

    If people could step outside their desperate situation ,I think they may see they are begging for any reason to belong to anything and some take advantage of that.

    Anyway, I just think Obama was misquoted, purposely. And leaving out part of the quote is a misquote. Without all of it, he does seem snotty.

    Also, I think the pollsters are wrong-I think the race is far closer than is being reported-but what I think doesn't matter, we will see on the 22nd.
    I can't wait to vote Obama.

  •  Ha ha! Pennsylvanians aren't as stupid (0+ / 0-)

    as the elitists thought.

    Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest... Gibbon

    by Dinclusin on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:30:20 PM PDT

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