Stay with me on this one as I tried looking into 2004 presidential election exit polls in OH and PA to determine Black turnout, and then compare OH 2008 HRC-Obama exit polls and black participation.
Ohio, Population 11.48 Mil
According to US Census Ohio is 12 black and that would make it 1.38 Mil blacks. In 2004 in Ohio black voters were 10% of the total vote. They undervoted. There were about 560K black votes cast in 2004 election and they went 84-16 for Kerry. About 40% of all black people voted in the 2004 election.
Penn. Population 12.44 Mil.
According to US Census 10.7% are black or roughly 1.33 Mil. In 2004 black voters were 13% of voters so they overvoted. Here is where the gravy is: There were about 741K black votes cast in PA in 2004 and they went for Kerry 84%-16%. Is it true that PA black voters are more likely to vote? So 55% of all black people voted in 2004 election, a significant difference from OH.
This year OH exit polls in HRC v. Obama black voters were 18% of the vote in the democratic primary and they went 87% - 13% TO Obama. 18% of all votes case in Ohio dem. primary is 393K black votes. So out of the 470K black votes that Kerry got in Ohio in 2004 (I assume that Bush black vote stayed away in OH and PA) 393K showed up or 83.6%. Out of the 393K Obama got 87% or 342K. HRC got 51K so Obama net margin was in OH black vote +291K. HRC beat him overall by 229K votes in OH.
2.741 Mil voters voted Kerry in OH and 2.187 Mil voted in Dem primary in OH or 79.8% showed up. Now, hang in here with me and assume I am comparing apples to apples.
What will be the result if PA black voters vote in exactly the same proportions with the assumption that black voters are more likely to vote in PA than in OH.
In PA 2.938 Mil voted Kerry and we can assume that 2.345 Mil vill show up and vote in the Dem primary in PA this April 22, 2008. No reason to assume that the black vote for Obama will be under 87% - 13% as it was in OH. It could be even higher, but I'll stick to that ratio. Kerry black vote in PA was 622K or 84% of 741K black votes. In OH 83.6 % of Kerry black vote showed up for the primary. Let's assume that the same % shows up again in PA even though PA black voters may be more ikely to vote. That will get the black vote in PA at 520K. Out of the projected 2.345 Mil dems to vote in PA 520K could ber black or 22.17%. All polls put black vote in PA at 17% or under, so my question is are they underestimating black participation? If Obama can get 87% of that vote he will net 452K black votes to HRC 68K or a 384K net advantage.
Lets assume that the remaining vote in PA's 2.345 Mil projected voters is all white, or call them "white and others" is 1.825 Mil. To neutralize and overcome Obama's 384K advantage with black voters HRC will need to win "white and others" by 22% or 61%-39%. Assumption in most other PA polls is that Obama needs 43% of "white and others" to win while I now think, if this holds that he will need just a hair over 39% of white and others to pull this off due to black voters being more likely to vote in PA that an average voter while black voters in OH apparently were less likely to vote than the average voter. Also Obama now has a much longer time to get the black vote out in PA than he had in OH where there were only a few weeks and her had to compete in TX as well.
What do you think? If this makes any sense please reccoment this diary, and I appologize for any spelling errors but no time to check.